I entered this in a thread earlier but it is worth noting that any bettor that thinks the Giants are a good situational play tonight should read and think about it again
When we talk about momentum and/or can't afford to lose I like to remember I once had a car I couldn't afford to fix either. Bye-bye car. Took the bus for six months. Needing to win or can't afford to lose don't mean you get the win.
Every single team that ever got knocked out of the playoffs or World Series needed to win and couldn't afford to lose on that day, but they did, all of them. 100%
JMHO
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I entered this in a thread earlier but it is worth noting that any bettor that thinks the Giants are a good situational play tonight should read and think about it again
When we talk about momentum and/or can't afford to lose I like to remember I once had a car I couldn't afford to fix either. Bye-bye car. Took the bus for six months. Needing to win or can't afford to lose don't mean you get the win.
Every single team that ever got knocked out of the playoffs or World Series needed to win and couldn't afford to lose on that day, but they did, all of them. 100%
Never understood KEY much any away with only betting 1st 5 inn during the reg season as the norm.,strange approach that doesn't add up.
This has all the makings of a back and forth series . KC had a must at home win game 2 .No team wants to lose 1st two games at home . Tonight same s thing .The Gants are the play because there home and the series depends on it . World series teams are nt that far apart either way ,The situation means more this time of year than regular season
. took the under 7 last night ,Have KC for series -130 Tonight its Giants and over
0
Never understood KEY much any away with only betting 1st 5 inn during the reg season as the norm.,strange approach that doesn't add up.
This has all the makings of a back and forth series . KC had a must at home win game 2 .No team wants to lose 1st two games at home . Tonight same s thing .The Gants are the play because there home and the series depends on it . World series teams are nt that far apart either way ,The situation means more this time of year than regular season
. took the under 7 last night ,Have KC for series -130 Tonight its Giants and over
KC has won how many 1 run games?? yeah so momentum is created by the other teams inability to clutch up in key moments. This game could go either way, but as we saw in the 1st two they split, Giants win on the RL, and were going back to KC 3-2 Giants!!
0
KC has won how many 1 run games?? yeah so momentum is created by the other teams inability to clutch up in key moments. This game could go either way, but as we saw in the 1st two they split, Giants win on the RL, and were going back to KC 3-2 Giants!!
Never understood KEY much any away with only betting 1st 5 inn during the reg season as the norm.,strange approach that doesn't add up.
I don't find the approach strange at all. Besides, maybe there is a reason why he changed his approach this season. And guess, what… his performance improved. if you're curious, I would suggest inquiring in one of his threads.
I predominantly wagered F5 early in the season as well. There were thoughtful reasons for that (on my part, and wouldn't be surprised if Key sees things in a similar light).
(i) bullpen arms are some of the hardest to cap for a few reasons. For one, late innings guys - outside of a few - tend to have short shelf lives. Despite being lights out one year, they can disappear in terms of effectiveness the following year. This is a topic on its own. Moreover, the bullpen tends to have the most turnover any given season. it's takes some data to begin tracking them to the point where you're comfortable capping them.
(ii) more often than not, the team leading after the 5th wins. Plus, when wagering a road team - and the game is tied after 5 innings - your odds of winning start to materially deteriorate w/ each passing inning. With an F5 wager, you can at least wash and there is value to be had if the lines (F5 and FG) are the same. personally, I take road dogs F5 more often than not, unless the differential between the implied probability and - what I feel is - the true probability makes me indifferent between the two (re: different F5/FG lines)
(iii) It's easier to cap 1 or 2 pitchers than it is to cap 4-5 of them. At that point, you need to consider how well rested each of the bullpen arms are and who will be brought in once the starter is removed. There can be quite a bit of uncertainty in that regard (managing and situational decisions). For example, if a lineup is skewed, maybe you see a LOOGY in the 7th or 8th instead of the typical set-up man depending on where you are in the order… leading to lineup changes (i.e., the players on the field change).
0
Quote Originally Posted by MTFN50:
Never understood KEY much any away with only betting 1st 5 inn during the reg season as the norm.,strange approach that doesn't add up.
I don't find the approach strange at all. Besides, maybe there is a reason why he changed his approach this season. And guess, what… his performance improved. if you're curious, I would suggest inquiring in one of his threads.
I predominantly wagered F5 early in the season as well. There were thoughtful reasons for that (on my part, and wouldn't be surprised if Key sees things in a similar light).
(i) bullpen arms are some of the hardest to cap for a few reasons. For one, late innings guys - outside of a few - tend to have short shelf lives. Despite being lights out one year, they can disappear in terms of effectiveness the following year. This is a topic on its own. Moreover, the bullpen tends to have the most turnover any given season. it's takes some data to begin tracking them to the point where you're comfortable capping them.
(ii) more often than not, the team leading after the 5th wins. Plus, when wagering a road team - and the game is tied after 5 innings - your odds of winning start to materially deteriorate w/ each passing inning. With an F5 wager, you can at least wash and there is value to be had if the lines (F5 and FG) are the same. personally, I take road dogs F5 more often than not, unless the differential between the implied probability and - what I feel is - the true probability makes me indifferent between the two (re: different F5/FG lines)
(iii) It's easier to cap 1 or 2 pitchers than it is to cap 4-5 of them. At that point, you need to consider how well rested each of the bullpen arms are and who will be brought in once the starter is removed. There can be quite a bit of uncertainty in that regard (managing and situational decisions). For example, if a lineup is skewed, maybe you see a LOOGY in the 7th or 8th instead of the typical set-up man depending on where you are in the order… leading to lineup changes (i.e., the players on the field change).
ok Birdy whatever you say . Your long winded answer that didn't have anything to do with who was going to win was useless . anyway Giants win easily Over covers easily
on to the next situation
0
ok Birdy whatever you say . Your long winded answer that didn't have anything to do with who was going to win was useless . anyway Giants win easily Over covers easily
5 inn plays have nothing to do with game results in a wagering approach as 5 inn wagers are more involved to see what Starter will perform the best head to head with out relievers involved and innings 6-9
I find this wager the best to play comparing both starters ability to be the best in matchup with no involvement by others,,,,,,
5 inn plays have very little to do with game results although scores at 5 inn seem for most part do carry thru for game results
0
5 inn plays have nothing to do with game results in a wagering approach as 5 inn wagers are more involved to see what Starter will perform the best head to head with out relievers involved and innings 6-9
I find this wager the best to play comparing both starters ability to be the best in matchup with no involvement by others,,,,,,
5 inn plays have very little to do with game results although scores at 5 inn seem for most part do carry thru for game results
ok Birdy whatever you say . Your long winded answer that didn't have anything to do with who was going to win was useless . anyway Giants win easily Over covers easily
on to the next situation
… I was trying to help explain something about F5/FG wagers at different points in the season (re: your confusion over key's style).
if you're going to be a rear-end hat about it and don't want there to be dialogue that is actually constructive, then I will keep that mind when I see your posts in the future.
besides, it's not about who is going to win… it is about who is going to win more often than what the line implies.
0
Quote Originally Posted by MTFN50:
ok Birdy whatever you say . Your long winded answer that didn't have anything to do with who was going to win was useless . anyway Giants win easily Over covers easily
on to the next situation
… I was trying to help explain something about F5/FG wagers at different points in the season (re: your confusion over key's style).
if you're going to be a rear-end hat about it and don't want there to be dialogue that is actually constructive, then I will keep that mind when I see your posts in the future.
besides, it's not about who is going to win… it is about who is going to win more often than what the line implies.
OK, what BOB and steveo1 say about the early innings is basically true. Starter on starter gives you the probable 5 and 9 inning winners, BOTH. As much as we (all of us) worry about bullpens I can state unequivocally that I have never met the successful handicapper that would say "I will take a 2 run deficit after 5 or 6 innings if I have the better bullpen". I have also never met or heard of the successful handicapper that would bet Team A first 5 and Team B for the game because the superior starter would win the first 5, but the other team was sure to come back versus the opposing, weaker, bullpen. Any one ever tried it? That is a formula for disaster, no doubt about it.
As for my own season, what was happening after April (terrific) through August was a downright crying shame. I stacked up an incredible number of 5 inning pushes or losses on teams that got their crap together in the sixth and went on to win. It was just that kind of year. If you can't stand the heat, get the hell out of the kitchen. So, by August it had sunk in and when a great many people were asking "are you going to quit?" I posted a 36-17-3 (68%, almost all dogs) September that overcame ALL the deficit, and the post season has been good at 8-5, 62%, again almost all dogs.
That is the effect of switching mostly to full game plays from late August on. That is not necessarily a permanent switch, but unlike the under educated, ignorant, and downright stupid around here, I am not inflexible and do not believe every singling gambling rule, perception or methodology was carved in stone by the time I was 17 years old and is now Gospel Truth.
5 inning can be good, 9 inning can be good, but what is really good is being able to say that at the end of the playoffs I will have scored a sterling 7 consecutive years on the is baseball forum without finishing in the red. I doubt if there are more than a hand full of people in the universe (much less on Covers) that can honestly state that.
The bashers will pound away; they are what they are. Disgruntled wanna be handicappers seem to have no other outlet for their frustrations, but I have even (finally) learned to tolerate them. After all, since they only come back when you win, they don't get the number of opportunities they would like.
BOL
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
OK, what BOB and steveo1 say about the early innings is basically true. Starter on starter gives you the probable 5 and 9 inning winners, BOTH. As much as we (all of us) worry about bullpens I can state unequivocally that I have never met the successful handicapper that would say "I will take a 2 run deficit after 5 or 6 innings if I have the better bullpen". I have also never met or heard of the successful handicapper that would bet Team A first 5 and Team B for the game because the superior starter would win the first 5, but the other team was sure to come back versus the opposing, weaker, bullpen. Any one ever tried it? That is a formula for disaster, no doubt about it.
As for my own season, what was happening after April (terrific) through August was a downright crying shame. I stacked up an incredible number of 5 inning pushes or losses on teams that got their crap together in the sixth and went on to win. It was just that kind of year. If you can't stand the heat, get the hell out of the kitchen. So, by August it had sunk in and when a great many people were asking "are you going to quit?" I posted a 36-17-3 (68%, almost all dogs) September that overcame ALL the deficit, and the post season has been good at 8-5, 62%, again almost all dogs.
That is the effect of switching mostly to full game plays from late August on. That is not necessarily a permanent switch, but unlike the under educated, ignorant, and downright stupid around here, I am not inflexible and do not believe every singling gambling rule, perception or methodology was carved in stone by the time I was 17 years old and is now Gospel Truth.
5 inning can be good, 9 inning can be good, but what is really good is being able to say that at the end of the playoffs I will have scored a sterling 7 consecutive years on the is baseball forum without finishing in the red. I doubt if there are more than a hand full of people in the universe (much less on Covers) that can honestly state that.
The bashers will pound away; they are what they are. Disgruntled wanna be handicappers seem to have no other outlet for their frustrations, but I have even (finally) learned to tolerate them. After all, since they only come back when you win, they don't get the number of opportunities they would like.
How about that lefty advantage for Vargas at AT&T Park? LOL.
lol also: "I doubt if there are more than a hand full of people in the universe (much less on Covers) that can honestly state that."
Matthew benham and his entire team of 100 traders who outright destroy key element.
Bernardo from colossus bets. great guy, easily has 50 people who win all the time in baseball
Andrew Pantling did quite well from matchbook.com trading team.
All of the guys who play the nightlies at pinnacle and are paid premium kickbacks for shaping the line (and who keymoron thinks doesn't make the odds for vegas lol). head trader of pinnacle marco is far far sharper then key element.
plenty plenty of people would embarrass this clown and its up to us at covers to let this meatball talk like he is a 7 year winning millionaire. prove it! if you dont make money you are nothing.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Amazatron:
How about that lefty advantage for Vargas at AT&T Park? LOL.
lol also: "I doubt if there are more than a hand full of people in the universe (much less on Covers) that can honestly state that."
Matthew benham and his entire team of 100 traders who outright destroy key element.
Bernardo from colossus bets. great guy, easily has 50 people who win all the time in baseball
Andrew Pantling did quite well from matchbook.com trading team.
All of the guys who play the nightlies at pinnacle and are paid premium kickbacks for shaping the line (and who keymoron thinks doesn't make the odds for vegas lol). head trader of pinnacle marco is far far sharper then key element.
plenty plenty of people would embarrass this clown and its up to us at covers to let this meatball talk like he is a 7 year winning millionaire. prove it! if you dont make money you are nothing.
Key,,,, You have been at this as i for a looooooong time and you need to dismiss these people as they have nothing to do but harass another's thread with no true input on games themselves and its a lot easier to bash another that takes time to post plays and thoughts than to post and express their own thoughts
Thats why i don't post much anymore and my visit here shows it,,,,,Just not worth all the negativity by people who would rather bash another than post plays and reasons why
I rarely play full games as for me its all bout F5 and Starter vs Starter
and i will continue to do that with my $$$$$
Ignore the bashers as they will always be there looking to bash at a moments notice upon a loss posted
This is sports gambling and wins and losses are part of the game
0
Key,,,, You have been at this as i for a looooooong time and you need to dismiss these people as they have nothing to do but harass another's thread with no true input on games themselves and its a lot easier to bash another that takes time to post plays and thoughts than to post and express their own thoughts
Thats why i don't post much anymore and my visit here shows it,,,,,Just not worth all the negativity by people who would rather bash another than post plays and reasons why
I rarely play full games as for me its all bout F5 and Starter vs Starter
and i will continue to do that with my $$$$$
Ignore the bashers as they will always be there looking to bash at a moments notice upon a loss posted
This is sports gambling and wins and losses are part of the game
the only 7 year + winning multi-millionaire gambler who no one knows except on covers lol. Betting against bumgarner is grievously stupid.
Entering posts in my threads after asking me to stay out of yours is arrogantly belligerent. I honored your request. No one is arguing I have done what I claimed. You have been discredited in less than a month.
As for your other contentions, if you have so much inside info and so many extraordinary handicappers at your disposal,
WHAT THE F.UCK ARE YOU DOING HERE
Five Star Laugher
Now and then even a BLIND squirrel can find an acorn
0
Quote Originally Posted by flash_diamond:
the only 7 year + winning multi-millionaire gambler who no one knows except on covers lol. Betting against bumgarner is grievously stupid.
Entering posts in my threads after asking me to stay out of yours is arrogantly belligerent. I honored your request. No one is arguing I have done what I claimed. You have been discredited in less than a month.
As for your other contentions, if you have so much inside info and so many extraordinary handicappers at your disposal,
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
go.
Hot Forum Topics
