Let's lay out some assumptions: you figure team A wins 70% of the time and they are a -135 fav over team B. On a totally separate game, you figure team C wins 45% of the time, but they are paying +135. You have $200 to bet today. Do you throw it all on one or the other? $100 on both?
This forum doesn't always have to be about pick person, right? We can talk theory every now and then?
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Let's lay out some assumptions: you figure team A wins 70% of the time and they are a -135 fav over team B. On a totally separate game, you figure team C wins 45% of the time, but they are paying +135. You have $200 to bet today. Do you throw it all on one or the other? $100 on both?
This forum doesn't always have to be about pick person, right? We can talk theory every now and then?
Let's lay out some assumptions: you figure team A wins 70% of the time and they are a -135 fav over team B. On a totally separate game, you figure team C wins 45% of the time, but they are paying +135. You have $200 to bet today. Do you throw it all on one or the other? $100 on both?
This forum doesn't always have to be about pick person, right? We can talk theory every now and then?
How about this if you are saying team A is winning 70% at -135 why not go with the greed line at plus money on the same game. Anyone knows the % that team A wins by 2 runs?
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Quote Originally Posted by WendysRox:
Let's lay out some assumptions: you figure team A wins 70% of the time and they are a -135 fav over team B. On a totally separate game, you figure team C wins 45% of the time, but they are paying +135. You have $200 to bet today. Do you throw it all on one or the other? $100 on both?
This forum doesn't always have to be about pick person, right? We can talk theory every now and then?
How about this if you are saying team A is winning 70% at -135 why not go with the greed line at plus money on the same game. Anyone knows the % that team A wins by 2 runs?
Using your hypothetical figures only, the -135 favorite winning 70% of the time will be far more profitable over the long term, and a much better bet for 1 game only as well.
Every 10 games, the favorite will earn you $295 while the underdog will make you $57.50
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Using your hypothetical figures only, the -135 favorite winning 70% of the time will be far more profitable over the long term, and a much better bet for 1 game only as well.
Every 10 games, the favorite will earn you $295 while the underdog will make you $57.50
Using your hypothetical figures only, the -135 favorite winning 70% of the time will be far more profitable over the long term, and a much better bet for 1 game only as well.
Every 10 games, the favorite will earn you $295 while the underdog will make you $57.50
You are assuming that the 70% winning percentage is the win% of team A over team B, not just a 70% winning percentage overall, regardless of opponent.
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Quote Originally Posted by Getty3:
Using your hypothetical figures only, the -135 favorite winning 70% of the time will be far more profitable over the long term, and a much better bet for 1 game only as well.
Every 10 games, the favorite will earn you $295 while the underdog will make you $57.50
You are assuming that the 70% winning percentage is the win% of team A over team B, not just a 70% winning percentage overall, regardless of opponent.
I like mixed bags of dogs and favs. It helps balance out the odds too!!! No matter what, BOL . The season is still early and teams are still playing with some rust. Pitchers are struggling to get into their games and a lot of batters are still swinging blanks.
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I like mixed bags of dogs and favs. It helps balance out the odds too!!! No matter what, BOL . The season is still early and teams are still playing with some rust. Pitchers are struggling to get into their games and a lot of batters are still swinging blanks.
To answer some questions, I was saying that you capped two games today. In the first game, you figure team A beats team B with a likelihood of 70%. In other words, of they played that game in 1000 alternate universes, team A would win 700 times and team B would win 300 times. And your getting a line of -135 on team A and +125 on team B.
Basically, I'm wondering if you have had more success betting fav's because the line was cheap or if you have had more success betting high paying dogs that you don't think have a very good chance of winning.
Thanks for all the input! I'm really interested in what everyone thinks.
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To answer some questions, I was saying that you capped two games today. In the first game, you figure team A beats team B with a likelihood of 70%. In other words, of they played that game in 1000 alternate universes, team A would win 700 times and team B would win 300 times. And your getting a line of -135 on team A and +125 on team B.
Basically, I'm wondering if you have had more success betting fav's because the line was cheap or if you have had more success betting high paying dogs that you don't think have a very good chance of winning.
Thanks for all the input! I'm really interested in what everyone thinks.
And for anyone interested, the reason I ask is that I'm struggling with a purely mathematical approach to find value in a line versus making some hard rules like "only bet fav's" or "only bet dogs."
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And for anyone interested, the reason I ask is that I'm struggling with a purely mathematical approach to find value in a line versus making some hard rules like "only bet fav's" or "only bet dogs."
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