Posted Record: 14-4-2 (+16.6 units)
It was nice to take yesterday off. It allowed me to get a head start on today's card, which to be honest has a lot of good value. However, as you know I'm a low volume player and will stick with just my best bet.
I think the Yankees left a sour taste in a lot of mouths yesterday. How do you lose 3-1 to Oakland at home? How do you split a series with Oakland at home? Well, by not taking them seriously and looking past them. If the Yankees were giving 100% and not looking ahead, they would have and should have swept the A's.
Now they hit the road to face a red hot Milwaukee team. Some might think this is not a spot to back them. I disagree and have my reasons, which I'll list below:
1) The loss yesterday and the series split was a wake up call. I think the offense comes out today a little pissed off and perhaps, takes it out on Milwaukee.
2) Do I think Milwaukee is a good team? Yes. Do I think they're a playoff team? Maybe. Do I think they're overachieving? Yes. Do I think regression toward the mean will take place? Yes.
3) Speaking of regression toward the mean. Let's start with today's starting pitcher for Milwaukee, Colin Rea. At age 33, I don't believe he's suddenly become an all star caliber pitcher. I think he's okay, but not nearly as good as his numbers indicate. I definitely expect some regression. Tonight seems like a good start for it.
4) How about the Yankee starter, Luis Gil. I've backed him and discussed his stuff in the past. He's been nasty ever since he recovered from Tommy John, and the league is just now getting a taste of it. Do I expect regression? No. He's a young guy that probably needs to work on his emotions. Otherwise in my opinion, he is as good as his numbers and I don't think we're going to see -120 lines on his starts come mid to late Summer.
5) The "game after the day you return home angle" is in play tonight. Milwaukee played a tough series in Pittsburgh and got home yesterday evening. When you get home from a road trip, there are a lot of distractions - mostly from your family and friends. Sometimes, your head is not always in the best place the next day. I don't play games solely based on this angle, but it's a good one to have as an addition.
6) The Yankee bullpen is fresh. They weren't needed much at all the last 2 games. Milwaukee's bullpen is tired, they pitched a ton of high stress innings the last 2 games.
Tonight I'm on the Yankees at -120 for 4 units.
Cheers and BOL to all 
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