What's going down all!? As always, thanks to everyone that stopped by yesterday's thread. Appreciate all of you. Now, let's get down to business.
Today we get two starters that haven't pitched in a month, Luis Gil vs Gavin Williams. Rust is a concern on both sides. However, my understanding is both threw a simulated game on Monday. Disregarding rust, I'm going to evaluate this match-up at face value.
On paper, Luis Gil appears to be the superior pitcher. That's because he is. Gil was 15-7 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Gavin Williams pitched to a 3-10 record with a 4.86 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. While Gil's advanced metrics won't blow you away; his K rate, fly ball rate, ground ball rate, xFIP, SI-ERA, and HR rate are all superior to Williams. The lone statistic Williams comes out on top is walk rate. Gil clearly has walk issues at 5/9. However, while Williams is slightly lower, he shows control issues as well with a 3.8/9 walk rate.
The game plan for Luis Gil is simple - minimize walks. If he can do that, he should out-duel Williams. Particularly, when you consider the disparity between the two lineups. In summary, NY's offense ranks #1 against right handed pitching, #2 on the road, and #3 since the all star break. Cleveland's offense ranks #25 against right handed pitching, #15 at home, and #26 since the all star break.
Cleveland has undeniably been carried by their pitching. Unfortunately for them, they turn to Gavin Williams tonight. They could really use 5 innings out of him, something Cleveland starters have accomplished just once this series. Vogt has had a very quick trigger and I doubt he holds back tonight. However, it's unclear who's available from each bullpen as the two teams combined to use 13 arms yesterday. My guess is the top guys on both sides can pitch. Although, for how long is a bit of a gray area and will of course, depend on the performances of Gil and Williams. Obviously, I have Gil with the better chance of pitching deep into the game.
It took a 2 out, 2 run homer in the 9th and a 2 out, 2 run homer in the 10th for Cleveland to secure a victory. What are the chances of their subpar offense pulling out another miracle? I'd say not very good. All the pressure is still on the Guardians and if Gil can out-pitch Williams, I don't think the Yankees will let them off the mat tonight.
I'm on the Yankees at -110
Cheers and BOL 
P.S. No play for me on the Dodgers/Mets game.
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