Academy Awards?

Lincoln will probably runaway with all of the awards

after seeing Lincoln I thought it was "The Lox, Chream Cheese and Toasted Bagel" for ALL the major awards BUT, ex for Daniel Day-Lewis as Best Actor, it hasn't won ANYTHING at other major awards shows. I thought Tommy Lee Jones was outstanding and a sure winner as Thaddeus Stevens BUT he keeps losing Best Supporting Actor awards to Christoph Waltz in Django

the Academy also has "egg on their face" for NOT nominating Ben Affleck as best Director for Argo. he's WON the award at every other show which makes them look foolish

i don't know if i could take a long shot, but i also don't know if i should take argo.

the REAL Best Picture long shot is Django Unchained BUT I think the Hollywood "establishment", which controls the Oscars, HATES Quentin Tarantino's movies.

Argo seems to be winning Best Picture at all the other awards shows

Good preview of Academy awards might be preceding awards with many of the SAME VOTERS in the Academy.  Director, grammy and screen actors guild but not golden globe. 

No dominant favourite for best picture this year.  Interesting that top 3 films are based on American history.

• "A Fish Called Wanda" Charles Crichton
• "The Last Temptation of Christ" Martin Scorsese
• "Mississippi Burning" Alan Parker
• "Rain Man" Barry Levinson (oscar winner)
  
• "Working Girl" Mike Nichols

Underdogs with best chance of winning if industry insiders repeat voting since many are Academy members.

Motion Picture Sound Editors (Life of Pi for sound editing).  Art Directors Guild (Anna Karemina for art production).  Directors Guild, Producers Guild and Annie awards  (Wreck it Ralph for animation).

In 25 years, Directors Guild and Producers Guild are 70-80% accurate in predicting best picture winner.  Both picked Argo in 2013.