Oscar Best Pix...

...  The PGA really put the wrench in the whole thing last night with tie between 12 Years and Gravity, which is almost impossible in a preferential voting style.  Read somewhere that for this to happen, there must have been EQUAL number of voters who had one movie above the others, we're talking about group that has 4700 members!!!

Hustle won SAG nite before.
12 Yrs Thurs nite at Critics Choice.
12 Yrs and Hustle at GG last weekend.

Haven't been this unpredictable leading to event itself since "forever."

DGA coming up Sat.

Anybody wants to chime in on this.  Not looking for discussion on what movie is better here, just who they think will win and why.

I'm not sure what the question is but Gravity won't win.

With DGA win, I think Gravity is on par with 12YAS now with one last big award left, BAFTA.  Between now and then, lots of technical guilds awards and that bodes well for Gravity as they're favorite for Editing, VFX, Cinematography.  It should have big momentum going into BAFTA.

AH deperately needs the Screenplay win to be back into it.  I would be very surprise if it wins BAFTA as they usually favor British film (ie surprise wins for The Queen and Atonement) and McQueen is British.  If Gravity wins at BAFTA over McQueen on his "homecourt," then it would be overwhelming favorite going into Oscar with 3 huge awards and all those tech guilds wins.

Someone said that the best awards in predicting Oscars are those where Academy members vote.  For examples, directors, cinematographers, writers, actors, musicians, etc.  Some awards such as golden globe and critics are less relevant because Academy members are unlikely to be among the voters.

It might be a long shot but I  like Somali-American actor Barkhad Abdito winning Best Supporting Actor for Captain Phillips. Abdi’s outstanding work of a Somali pirate responsible for the first hijacking of an American cargo ship is evenly matched by the veteran Tom Hanks. 

I still like 12 Years a Slave for the Oscar, but it is certainly not a lock any more.  Nevertheless, I disagree that Gravity would be the favorite if it wins at BAFTA.  

gmitran, I forgot to mention that it's definitely NOT the case that this year is historically unpredictable.  To take just one recent example, Hurt Locker and Avatar were almost exactly even money for Best Picture right up until the Oscar ceremony.  Overall, the major categories this year have seen a convergence of opinion to one overwhelming favorite somewhat earlier than usual.