Oscar Best Pix...

Question

... The PGA really put the wrench in the whole thing last night with tie between 12 Years and Gravity, which is almost impossible in a preferential voting style. Read somewhere that for this to happen, there must have been EQUAL number of voters who had one movie above the others, we're talking about group that has 4700 members!!!

Hustle won SAG nite before.
12 Yrs Thurs nite at Critics Choice.
12 Yrs and Hustle at GG last weekend.

Haven't been this unpredictable leading to event itself since "forever."

DGA coming up Sat.

Anybody wants to chime in on this. Not looking for discussion on what movie is better here, just who they think will win and why.

gmitran · Answer

... The PGA really put the wrench in the whole thing last night with tie between 12 Years and Gravity, which is almost impossible in a preferential voting style. Read somewhere that for this to happen, there must have been EQUAL number of voters who had one movie above the others, we're talking about group that has 4700 members!!!

Hustle won SAG nite before.
12 Yrs Thurs nite at Critics Choice.
12 Yrs and Hustle at GG last weekend.

Haven't been this unpredictable leading to event itself since "forever."

DGA coming up Sat.

Anybody wants to chime in on this. Not looking for discussion on what movie is better here, just who they think will win and why.

Dutch1976 · Answer

I&#x27;m not sure what the question is but Gravity won&#x27;t win.

gmitran · Answer

With DGA win, I think Gravity is on par with 12YAS now with one last big award left, BAFTA. Between now and then, lots of technical guilds awards and that bodes well for Gravity as they're favorite for Editing, VFX, Cinematography. It should have big momentum going into BAFTA.

AH deperately needs the Screenplay win to be back into it. I would be very surprise if it wins BAFTA as they usually favor British film (ie surprise wins for The Queen and Atonement) and McQueen is British. If Gravity wins at BAFTA over McQueen on his "homecourt," then it would be overwhelming favorite going into Oscar with 3 huge awards and all those tech guilds wins.

thirdperson · Answer

Someone said that the best awards in predicting Oscars are those where Academy members vote.  For examples, directors, cinematographers, writers, actors, musicians, etc.  Some awards such as golden globe and critics are less relevant because Academy members are unlikely to be among the voters.

CanadaCup · Answer

It might be a long shot but I  like Somali-American actor Barkhad Abdito winning Best Supporting Actor for Captain Phillips. Abdi&#x2019;s outstanding work of a Somali pirate responsible for the first hijacking of an American cargo ship is evenly matched by the veteran Tom Hanks.

McDoc · Answer

I still like 12 Years a Slave for the Oscar, but it is certainly not a lock any more. Nevertheless, I disagree that Gravity would be the favorite if it wins at BAFTA.

More generally, if you are interested in handicapping the Oscars, then I highly recommend that you take a look at GoldDerby.com. In the forums there, you can find lots of people who love discussing this stuff. For handicapping, the charts of predictions made by "experts" and by people with a known record of predictions from prior years, are much more useful than the hot air in the forums.

CanadaCup, if you truly "like", in the gambling sense, Abdi for Best Supporting Actor, then you should be able to get at least 20:1 odds. I would recommend waiting until the day before the Oscars, though, since those odds are likely to get even longer.

McDoc · Answer

gmitran, I forgot to mention that it&#x27;s definitely NOT the case that this year is historically unpredictable.  To take just one recent example, Hurt Locker and Avatar were almost exactly even money for Best Picture right up until the Oscar ceremony.  Overall, the major categories this year have seen a convergence of opinion to one overwhelming favorite somewhat earlier than usual.  One thing that is, to the best of my knowledge, a first, is the nearly unanimous belief that two different films will win Best Director and Best Picture.  The standard dogma has always been that "split" years are anomalous and only occur in certain special circumstances.  Seriously, I&#x27;ve read pages and pages of analysis from people who claimed to have some model that explained these outlier years.  Suddenly, after Ang Lee&#x27;s surprise win last year, everyone seems to think a split is very likely again this year.  Perhaps their memories are just short.  If so, then the huge support for Cuaron might suggest that your pick of Gravity for Best Picture deserves consideration.  It&#x27;s around &#x2B;400, so you could make some money if you&#x27;re right.

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