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Gatorade Duels Forecast

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Veteran
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Posted: #1
It should be interesting to see how things align for the Daytona 500 and how the cars run on the newly paved surface.  It looks like there are some concerns going into the duels today, but hopefully not too many cars get banged up and everyone has their best come the 500.  I see a lot of value in today's duels and have made 4 match-up plays on each duel and a value bet for the outright winners of each race based on what I have seen so far. 

Gatorade Duel 1 Forecast
Outright Matt Kenseth +1500

Race Match-ups
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (-125) vs. Tony Stewart
Tony Stewart +105

Kurt Busch (-120) vs. Jimmy Johnson
Jimmy Johnson +100

Juan Pablo Montoya (-125) vs. Mark Martin
Mark Martin +105

Marcos Ambrose (-140) vs. Bobby Labonte
Bobby Labonte +120


Gatorade Duel 2 Forecast
Outright Carl Edwards +800

Race Match-ups
Jamie Mcmurray (-120) vs. Jeff Gordon
Jeff Gordon +100

Denny Hamlin (-140) vs. Carl Edwards
Carl Edwards +120

Greg Biffle (+120) vs. Joey Logano
Joey Logano -140

David Reutimann (-125) vs. Martin Truex Jr.
Martin Truex Jr. +105  


Best of luck everyone, enjoy the duels today!

FF

= Plays
 
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Posted: #2
Logano -140 and Truex +105 are live plays. Sorry about that, I forgot my

Best of luck today on your wagers and enjoy both of the races. 
 
Captain
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Posted: #3

gl today,   Did Truex even get any practice in the backup car?

 
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Posted: #4
I am going to sprinkle Logano outright in Duel 2 as well at +1000. Logano has impressed me, and I couldn't ignore his previous finishes of 7th and 4th respectively in his two duels. In regards to the match-up  going up against Greg Biffle who has finished 11th, 24th, 8th, 16th, 8th the last 5 years is something I had to take, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Logano potentially compete for the Duel win at the end of the race. 
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by madshooter72:

gl today,   Did Truex even get any practice in the backup car?



Spent the day in the garage working on the car for the duel.  Reutimann has been up and down, but had a nice end to the session today but has finished 9th,15th,12th,28th in his duels.  I trust Truex and his team enough to get things right and win the match-up I have locked in against Reuitimann. 
 
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Posted: #6
I know that with some recent changes (rules,surface,etc) that these duels, and even the 500 is going to be more of a crapshoot than years past, but the 5 year averages of these duels cannot be ignored.  The mindset of some of these drivers is to simply get their car right for the 500, and not put themselves in a position to wreck their primary.  However, there has been a level of consistency in finishes from a select group.  Here is a chart of the finishes the last 5 years. 

https://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=2cncmjs&s=7
 
Veteran
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Posted: #7
Everything is finalized, I just sprinkled a little bit on Mark Martin at +1400 for Duel 1.  His car has been too good to ignore for this kind of value, and I could easily see Jimmy Johnson pushing him to victory for the first duel.  The match-ups above are final as well.

Gatorade Duel 1 Forecast
Outright Matt Kenseth +1500
Outright Mark Martin +1400

Gatorade Duel 2 Forecast
Outright Carl Edwards +800
Outright Joey Logano +1000
 
Prospect
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Joined: Feb, 2011
Posts: 258
Posted: #8
best of luck today FF....I really love the plays!
 
Legend
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Posts: 34488
Posted: #9
 
 
Prospect
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Joined: Feb, 2011
Posts: 258
Posted: #10
Nice hits with Bobby Labonte and Tony Stewart....Kenseth led quite a few laps and got hosed on the green,white,checkered...

good luck in Duel 2 !
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