2012 NBA Finals : Game 4 and a Look Back

2012 Playoffs: 69-52-3 +291.02 units

Pending

Miami Heat win NBA +350 (8 units to win 28.00)

Wade over Westbrook Series Pts (15 units to win 12.50)

I wasn't around to post, but only play for Game 3 was DWade over 23 points, which got bailed out by the free throws he hit with 13 seconds left.  It was a push, but he hit both to finish with 25.  This is not included in the record above.

All I keep reading is how the refs won the game for the Miami Heat and while I accept that there were some questionable calls, the refs did not influence the outcome of this game.  There was a defining 4 minutes and 33 seconds that had an enormous impact on who won Game 3.  It wasn't the only thing that led the Heat to victory, but I'll touch on the others later.  With 4:33 left in the third quarter, the Thunder took a 64-54 lead and seemed in complete control of the game.  What happened next had nothing to do with the officiating and everything to do with the Thunder giving the lead back to the Heat.  When that 4:33 touched 0, the Heat were up by two, outscoring the Thunder by 12 over that span.  Below is the shot selection by the Thunder and Heat in that last 4:33 of the third quarter.  Included is the shooting % of that player on the road within the range of where each shot was taken by OKC.

Oklahoma City

Ibaka – missed 19 foot jumper (43% on the road)

Ibaka – missed 16 foot jumper (43% on the road)

Sefolosha – missed 25 foot three point jumper (15% on the road)

Harden – missed 19 foot jumper (35% on the road between 16-20 feet)

Fisher – missed 9 foot jumper (37% on the road between 7-10 feet)

Cook – missed 23 foot three point jumper (35% between 23-25 feet)

Harden – missed 25 foot three point jumper (32% on the road)

Harden – missed 25 foot three point jumper (32% on the road)

Eight shots in 4 minutes and 33 seconds and everyone that could be questioned.  Sure, Durant and Wetbrook were not in the game, but you have your center shooting jumpers and everyone else hucking three pointers.  The one shot you got inside 10 feet was by the smallest player on the court.  What's interesting is that the Ibaka jumpers were the highest % shot by the Thunder over the 4:33.  Here are the team stats for the last 4:33 and I think it will be glaringly obvious how the Heat took a 2 point lead heading into the 4th quarter

Great write up but due to the fact Durant was benched with 4 fouls makes a huge difference. 

Those stats would be completely different with Durant in the game. 

If Lebron James was on the bench things would go differently for Miami also and their offense will not be running as good also.

tjohnson - I completely agree that if Durant were out there things would have been smoother offensively.  However, championship teams should be able to survive without their MVP in the game. I don't get why Westbrook was not in the game.  If Lebron is on the bench, I am confident the Heat shot selection would have been better than that of the Thunder

proguy - thanks buddy.  I think the refs influencing the outcome of the game is overhyped.  Sure there are bad calls and missed calls that impact the flow, but I don't get how people can say the Thunder deserved to win Game 3 more than the Heat and it was the refs fault that they lost. 

Durant and Westbrook was on the bench.  Miami was playing starters against OKC's 2nd team.  Miami has a pretty good defence at home.  Basically, OKC was out of sync.  They also uncharacteristically fouled the 3 point shooters not once but twice in a span of a minute or so. 

OKC lost their rhythm once the foul on Durant was called.  If that didn't happen then OKC would have most likely broke the game wide open. 

These fouls also have a mental affect on defensive players.  Give Lebron an extra few inches or play a little more soft on him and he will probably do what he did in Boston game 6 all day.   Same goes to other players as well.  Fouls affect the game tremendously.

And yes, refs know that a timely foul can affect the momentum and ultimately affect the outcome of the game.  The fourth foul on Durant was huge imo.  Obviously it was since that is when Miami went on their run.

mellow - excellent post my friend, I agree completely.  Great stuff

docterd - right back at you buddy. 

zteinter - thanks, appreciate that.  So much energy has been placed on pointing the finger at the refs. 

Chalmers OVER 15.5 Pts, Rebs, Asts (10 units to win 8.70)

Prior to the last two games, Chalmers went over this number in 9 of the 10 previous games.  This year in the playoffs, he has gone over 14 out of 21 games, yet hard to justify a play on the over given how bad he has played in the last two.  Maybe the Thunder are a bad matchup for Chalmers?  Possible, but he went over this number vs OKC in the regular season and went over in Game 1.  He is getting shot attempts, just so happens that the last two games he is missing everything, going a combined 2-15 FG, 1-6 Three Point and 0-0 FT.  He hasn't taken a foul shot in the last 5 games despite taking 53 in the previous 16 playoff games.  I think he gets back there tonight, so this bet is really just playing the averages.  I think he knocks down at least one triple and gets to the line 4 times.  Right there I'm looking at 6 points leaving only 10 more to go to his this over.  He could bomb again, but if you track back through the season, you'll notice he usually bounces back off a poor shooting game with the exception of the last two.  I'll provide some more stats on this prop in a bit, but wanted to post it up before it runs.

Let's bottom line this. Note which name appears the most in that span of futillity in post #1 : J.Harden, J.Harden, J.Harden ...now let's look at the entire game he went 2-10 and 0-4 form the arch for a combine 14%....ouch!!! BTW - they would still have covered if Westbrook was a little under control and they hit there average FT's.  

So it's very simple here...if you feel Harden will play back to his potential, like he had before this series they can win and at a minimum cover. Can he remmber how to drive and escape the defensive pressure and find net. The Heat have been  focused on stopping his penetration and taking him out of his game (ie., remember errant pass in last, etc.). Brooks knows this now and now must find away to bring the old J. Harden back or at a minimum find a way to get him some assists.  I think he does.

 I would look at the Harden over before Charmers.  Remember during the season Wade and the King shared the ball.....I would not average in the season here....times a different...just IMO. 

jwarner - good seeing you buddy

Cal - thanks buddy.  I agree that OKC was forced to put Durant on the bench, but I don't get having Westbrook there.  And even if having them both there at that stage is normal for the Thunder. I don't get the shot slection by OKC.  But I do fully agree that Durant was forced to the bench and that changed everything.

P4P - next post buddy for other plays

Adding Machine - I can't feel good about backing Harden just yet as he has been quite Jekyl and Hyde.  I'm not overly impressed with him to be honest.  Let me rephrase.  When he is good, he can take over a game and swing momentum.  When he is bad, he is bad.  And last game he was bad. 

Oklahoma City +1.5 (12 units to win 10.91)

Gut check time for the Thunder.  They have been outscored in the first quarter 82-57 in the first three games of this series.  Seems crazy to back this team out of the gates based on what we've seen thus far in this series.  This might be a gut play more than anything, but I think OKC comes out strong to start this game. 

Oklahoma City/Miami OVER 192 (20 units to win 18.18)