I picked the dubs in game 2 buddy. I was surprised you didn't have the Cavs in your system but am more surprised with tonite. Plain and simple.
Well, he notched a L in game 3. As great as claw is, stats sometimes just don't tell the story.
Claw clearly had Warriors in Game 2... you clearly had the Cavs in Game 2...
Claw clearly did not notch a L in Game 3, since he said he wasn't taking a side, and in fact said this was a fade spot for the Warriors, historically...
The Dude imbibes
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Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:
I picked the dubs in game 2 buddy. I was surprised you didn't have the Cavs in your system but am more surprised with tonite. Plain and simple.
Well, he notched a L in game 3. As great as claw is, stats sometimes just don't tell the story.
Claw clearly had Warriors in Game 2... you clearly had the Cavs in Game 2...
Claw clearly did not notch a L in Game 3, since he said he wasn't taking a side, and in fact said this was a fade spot for the Warriors, historically...
Here's a stat for you. Golden State is 7-14s.u when they lose on the road by 20+pts and their next game is on the road. Conversely Cleveland is 21-1su after a 20+pt win at home and their next game is at home. I researched this myself so i know the stat is legit. I won't touch the points, but Cleveland on the moneyline big for me!
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Here's a stat for you. Golden State is 7-14s.u when they lose on the road by 20+pts and their next game is on the road. Conversely Cleveland is 21-1su after a 20+pt win at home and their next game is at home. I researched this myself so i know the stat is legit. I won't touch the points, but Cleveland on the moneyline big for me!
Ya know what dude, from those posts, yes, it sounds like I liked the cavs that nite. No play though from me. I will say this though, if you go back and read some of my other posts they say being down 0-2 is basically par for the course. I made one play on this series and that was last nite. Believe that or dont. Im not here to act like im the almighty capper. Im not here to bs. Claw is one of the best on here. We can agree on that. Im just pointing out that as good as someone can be, their angles and approaches arent the end all, be all. Thats it. Ive tailed claw msny times and if you go back and do the "reaearching of posts" like i know you love to do, you will see the gratitude there. I can bust some balls, granted they aren't tennis balls hitting the wall like in your experiments, but I can give claw a hard time. He can handle it. At the end of the day, I still respect the amigo. Thanks for your research dude.
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Ya know what dude, from those posts, yes, it sounds like I liked the cavs that nite. No play though from me. I will say this though, if you go back and read some of my other posts they say being down 0-2 is basically par for the course. I made one play on this series and that was last nite. Believe that or dont. Im not here to act like im the almighty capper. Im not here to bs. Claw is one of the best on here. We can agree on that. Im just pointing out that as good as someone can be, their angles and approaches arent the end all, be all. Thats it. Ive tailed claw msny times and if you go back and do the "reaearching of posts" like i know you love to do, you will see the gratitude there. I can bust some balls, granted they aren't tennis balls hitting the wall like in your experiments, but I can give claw a hard time. He can handle it. At the end of the day, I still respect the amigo. Thanks for your research dude.
I didn't read every post on this thread, but I had never heard Claw imply his stats were the end all be all, or that they result in infallible picks... seems to me like he is generally humble and realistic...
Maybe you were referring to others talking about his picks... like I said, didn't read every post!
The Dude imbibes
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I didn't read every post on this thread, but I had never heard Claw imply his stats were the end all be all, or that they result in infallible picks... seems to me like he is generally humble and realistic...
Maybe you were referring to others talking about his picks... like I said, didn't read every post!
Dude, are u claws bodyguard? You wanna keep going with this? It's kind of pointless. Let me know when you are done bud. I am indeed referring to others and how they perceive him. Hey, he's one of the best. Is that in question? Nope, not from me. AGAIN, THERE ARE MORE VARIABLES THAT JUST STATS TO CAPPING GAMES. SOMETIMES STATS DONT DO IT. That's it bud. No need to bo your chest out here. Everything is ok. Enjoy the game tonite dude.
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Dude, are u claws bodyguard? You wanna keep going with this? It's kind of pointless. Let me know when you are done bud. I am indeed referring to others and how they perceive him. Hey, he's one of the best. Is that in question? Nope, not from me. AGAIN, THERE ARE MORE VARIABLES THAT JUST STATS TO CAPPING GAMES. SOMETIMES STATS DONT DO IT. That's it bud. No need to bo your chest out here. Everything is ok. Enjoy the game tonite dude.
Well, he notched a L in game 3. As great as claw is, stats sometimes just don't tell the story. Stats are ONE of the tools one can use to cap a game but again they aren't everything. That's all I want people to understand.
Dude, you've gone off the deep end, I passed on game 3, not sure how you get a loss out of a pass.
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Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:
Well, he notched a L in game 3. As great as claw is, stats sometimes just don't tell the story. Stats are ONE of the tools one can use to cap a game but again they aren't everything. That's all I want people to understand.
Dude, you've gone off the deep end, I passed on game 3, not sure how you get a loss out of a pass.
Yeah, my bad buddy. I should I have said that your no play was the wrong play. Essentially, you did not lose and I apologize for that bud. I was telling you the Cavs were the play and you laid off. With that, yes, you are correct. My mistake. I can own up to them unlike some of the a$$clowns on here (no, you are not part of that group). From your perspective, yes, the deep end and I got acquainted. Apologies again amigo
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Yeah, my bad buddy. I should I have said that your no play was the wrong play. Essentially, you did not lose and I apologize for that bud. I was telling you the Cavs were the play and you laid off. With that, yes, you are correct. My mistake. I can own up to them unlike some of the a$$clowns on here (no, you are not part of that group). From your perspective, yes, the deep end and I got acquainted. Apologies again amigo
Ya know what dude, from those posts, yes, it sounds like I liked the cavs that nite. No play though from me. I will say this though, if you go back and read some of my other posts they say being down 0-2 is basically par for the course. I made one play on this series and that was last nite. Believe that or dont. Im not here to act like im the almighty capper. Im not here to bs. Claw is one of the best on here. We can agree on that. Im just pointing out that as good as someone can be, their angles and approaches arent the end all, be all. Thats it. Ive tailed claw msny times and if you go back and do the "reaearching of posts" like i know you love to do, you will see the gratitude there. I can bust some balls, granted they aren't tennis balls hitting the wall like in your experiments, but I can give claw a hard time. He can handle it. At the end of the day, I still respect the amigo. Thanks for your research dude.
I'll give you credit for that, there are many approaches to cap games, there will be some approaches that go against my methods, and sometimes they can beat me but sometimes I beat them.,
Just because a different approach beat me once or twice does not mean it will beat me longer term.
What is very important to understand is, whatever approach you use, if it has a good track record, STAY THE COARSE WITH IT.
The last thing you'd want to do is lose with one approach then jump ship to a hotter approach because of things like regression.
The one thing about my approach is rarely if you stay the coarse will you get hammered and lose big time.
When I have fallen behind a bit staying the coarse ussually brings us back to around .500, maybe a small losing record.
There's not many approaches from what I've seen in years of doing this that can say that.
Sometimes you win by not getting hammered and losing big. Waiting it out to get to a very strong run. This is a very over-looked situation.
But enough of that, let's get back to game 4.............................
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Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:
Ya know what dude, from those posts, yes, it sounds like I liked the cavs that nite. No play though from me. I will say this though, if you go back and read some of my other posts they say being down 0-2 is basically par for the course. I made one play on this series and that was last nite. Believe that or dont. Im not here to act like im the almighty capper. Im not here to bs. Claw is one of the best on here. We can agree on that. Im just pointing out that as good as someone can be, their angles and approaches arent the end all, be all. Thats it. Ive tailed claw msny times and if you go back and do the "reaearching of posts" like i know you love to do, you will see the gratitude there. I can bust some balls, granted they aren't tennis balls hitting the wall like in your experiments, but I can give claw a hard time. He can handle it. At the end of the day, I still respect the amigo. Thanks for your research dude.
I'll give you credit for that, there are many approaches to cap games, there will be some approaches that go against my methods, and sometimes they can beat me but sometimes I beat them.,
Just because a different approach beat me once or twice does not mean it will beat me longer term.
What is very important to understand is, whatever approach you use, if it has a good track record, STAY THE COARSE WITH IT.
The last thing you'd want to do is lose with one approach then jump ship to a hotter approach because of things like regression.
The one thing about my approach is rarely if you stay the coarse will you get hammered and lose big time.
When I have fallen behind a bit staying the coarse ussually brings us back to around .500, maybe a small losing record.
There's not many approaches from what I've seen in years of doing this that can say that.
Sometimes you win by not getting hammered and losing big. Waiting it out to get to a very strong run. This is a very over-looked situation.
But enough of that, let's get back to game 4.............................
Well, I guess a no play can never be a wrong play. Let me be more clear here: there was money to be made, that's it bro. Enjoy the game tonite
You can say that looking back of coarse, but you want win every game that I pass on.
So you had a no play as you just said on game 2, so you lost with that no play coz as I said there was money to be made on the game and you pass it up.
My exact point, it's math dude, you win once or twice and claim things but let's throw your passes in the trash can because they don;'t count right ?
Dude, I'm telling you this is how squares think, only their wins count but not their losses or their passes don't count either, only mine do.
That's exactly what you were caught red-handed doing right here.
It's simple 8th grade math, it's called probibilities over the longer term.
If you can beat the info here over the long run I'd be quite surprised, but you think you can because you won't count your passes on games like game 2, right ?
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Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:
Well, I guess a no play can never be a wrong play. Let me be more clear here: there was money to be made, that's it bro. Enjoy the game tonite
You can say that looking back of coarse, but you want win every game that I pass on.
So you had a no play as you just said on game 2, so you lost with that no play coz as I said there was money to be made on the game and you pass it up.
My exact point, it's math dude, you win once or twice and claim things but let's throw your passes in the trash can because they don;'t count right ?
Dude, I'm telling you this is how squares think, only their wins count but not their losses or their passes don't count either, only mine do.
That's exactly what you were caught red-handed doing right here.
It's simple 8th grade math, it's called probibilities over the longer term.
If you can beat the info here over the long run I'd be quite surprised, but you think you can because you won't count your passes on games like game 2, right ?
Claw, it's "Stay the course," not coarse. It's irrelevant and doesn't affect anything you've written, but I figured you might want to know as you seem like a smart guy. Cheers for the picks and bol.
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Claw, it's "Stay the course," not coarse. It's irrelevant and doesn't affect anything you've written, but I figured you might want to know as you seem like a smart guy. Cheers for the picks and bol.
Claw, I'm with you on the Square piece. I'm no square though. I do well enough and just because I don't post e wry play on here, that doesn't mean anything. I always check in with your analysis; im akways looking for ya. It doesn't mean I'm gonna tail ya but if I have a play and it's reaffirmed by your angle, I'm a go. If not, sometimes I listen, sometimes I don't. I will always own up to my losses. I'm not a coward like some of the guys we see on here. I will also admit when I'm off the beaten path with my comments. I apologized; moving on. Enjoy the game.
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Claw, I'm with you on the Square piece. I'm no square though. I do well enough and just because I don't post e wry play on here, that doesn't mean anything. I always check in with your analysis; im akways looking for ya. It doesn't mean I'm gonna tail ya but if I have a play and it's reaffirmed by your angle, I'm a go. If not, sometimes I listen, sometimes I don't. I will always own up to my losses. I'm not a coward like some of the guys we see on here. I will also admit when I'm off the beaten path with my comments. I apologized; moving on. Enjoy the game.
Claw, it's "Stay the course," not coarse. It's irrelevant and doesn't affect anything you've written, but I figured you might want to know as you seem like a smart guy. Cheers for the picks and bol.
Thanks, your right, but truth be know I have very limited time to post and type so I do it with thinking about some things.
Last night I just finished researching all the info with series at 2-1 going back to 1992 when I made the post which was made at 8:47pm only 13 minutes before scheduled game time.
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Quote Originally Posted by The_NBA:
Claw, it's "Stay the course," not coarse. It's irrelevant and doesn't affect anything you've written, but I figured you might want to know as you seem like a smart guy. Cheers for the picks and bol.
Thanks, your right, but truth be know I have very limited time to post and type so I do it with thinking about some things.
Last night I just finished researching all the info with series at 2-1 going back to 1992 when I made the post which was made at 8:47pm only 13 minutes before scheduled game time.
Shooting Efficiency has the highest correlation to winning and the highest predictive value going forward.
When we combined the mathmatIcal probabilities of PR II with shooting efficiency..............................................
Team better by .75 in PR II and 1% or better in shooting efficiency is........................................12-1 (92.3%) at winning the series since 1980
The only team to lose......you got it, LBJ and his 2011 Heat, when LBJ did not want the ball in crunch time because he could not solve the Mavs defense.
These 13 teams were................................12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS game 1's
After a SU loss.......18-3 SU and 13-8 ATS
Close-out game .....12-3 SU and 10-5 ATS
Started the series 2-0 SU ......6 of 13 times
These powerhouse teams ................
game 1's NOW 13-1 SU
after a loss NOW 19-3 SU
close-out games are 12-3 SU before game 5
The info suggest it might be the end of the road for this Cavs team.
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
Shooting Efficiency has the highest correlation to winning and the highest predictive value going forward.
When we combined the mathmatIcal probabilities of PR II with shooting efficiency..............................................
Team better by .75 in PR II and 1% or better in shooting efficiency is........................................12-1 (92.3%) at winning the series since 1980
The only team to lose......you got it, LBJ and his 2011 Heat, when LBJ did not want the ball in crunch time because he could not solve the Mavs defense.
These 13 teams were................................12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS game 1's
After a SU loss.......18-3 SU and 13-8 ATS
Close-out game .....12-3 SU and 10-5 ATS
Started the series 2-0 SU ......6 of 13 times
These powerhouse teams ................
game 1's NOW 13-1 SU
after a loss NOW 19-3 SU
close-out games are 12-3 SU before game 5
The info suggest it might be the end of the road for this Cavs team.
LBJ is one of the greatest underperformers in NBA Finals history in the most important areas of the game that produce winning teams....FG%.
In 2013 in shot 12.5% below his regular season ave in 5 of the 7 NBA Finals games the main reason his team is the only 65 game winner to be taken to a 7th game.
Last season he shot a dreadful 39% VS Warriors.
The pundits are happy to tell us all about his numerous triple doubles, yea ok, they mean something, so he's a all-around player, but what they fail to see is he has repeatedly played poorly in the single most important area that leads to winning ....FG %
Correlation to winning.....................
FG % -- 79%
Rebounds - 69%
Assist 65%
LBJ excells in the less meaningful areas and folds up camp in the most important area.....FG %.
The evidence seems to indicate LBJ thrives on cupcakes and folds like a pop-tent VS the better teams on the biggest stage.
It should not come as any surprise that LBJ folded-up camp in the 4th quarter once again, he has a long history of such performances in the finals.
He did get 2 or 3 gimmie's to make his FG % look respectable of coarse they came after the game was decided.
Pundits can talk all they want about triple doubles and such but FG% is the real KING of the NBA and in that very key area LBJ is far from KING.
Pundits love volume, volume is not meaningful to winning in sports, EFFICIENCY is, 40 points per game is meaningless when you shoot 39% to get those 40 points, it does not help your team win the game, it hurts your chances to win the game.
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
LBJ is one of the greatest underperformers in NBA Finals history in the most important areas of the game that produce winning teams....FG%.
In 2013 in shot 12.5% below his regular season ave in 5 of the 7 NBA Finals games the main reason his team is the only 65 game winner to be taken to a 7th game.
Last season he shot a dreadful 39% VS Warriors.
The pundits are happy to tell us all about his numerous triple doubles, yea ok, they mean something, so he's a all-around player, but what they fail to see is he has repeatedly played poorly in the single most important area that leads to winning ....FG %
Correlation to winning.....................
FG % -- 79%
Rebounds - 69%
Assist 65%
LBJ excells in the less meaningful areas and folds up camp in the most important area.....FG %.
The evidence seems to indicate LBJ thrives on cupcakes and folds like a pop-tent VS the better teams on the biggest stage.
It should not come as any surprise that LBJ folded-up camp in the 4th quarter once again, he has a long history of such performances in the finals.
He did get 2 or 3 gimmie's to make his FG % look respectable of coarse they came after the game was decided.
Pundits can talk all they want about triple doubles and such but FG% is the real KING of the NBA and in that very key area LBJ is far from KING.
Pundits love volume, volume is not meaningful to winning in sports, EFFICIENCY is, 40 points per game is meaningless when you shoot 39% to get those 40 points, it does not help your team win the game, it hurts your chances to win the game.
You were keeping your record earlier in the thread. I was wondering if you will update it anytime soon. Thanks a bunch...
... Yes I did think about it but quite a bit of work especially to track 1st halves , game, 2cd halves and so on.
I did post most of my picks in NBA Contest on the site....27-13 ATS and 7-8 on totals.
Missed a couple of games because covers takes them down a few minutres early and I was waiting out a better line, that does not count 1st halves which we did quite well and 2cd halves .
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Quote Originally Posted by Joe_Cool:
Hi claw,
You were keeping your record earlier in the thread. I was wondering if you will update it anytime soon. Thanks a bunch...
... Yes I did think about it but quite a bit of work especially to track 1st halves , game, 2cd halves and so on.
I did post most of my picks in NBA Contest on the site....27-13 ATS and 7-8 on totals.
Missed a couple of games because covers takes them down a few minutres early and I was waiting out a better line, that does not count 1st halves which we did quite well and 2cd halves .
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