I read your posts with interest...in actuality someone who offers very good information based on past history and statistics as you are offering is not common, and it is freely given, which is very nice as well.
It is much appreciated,....regression to the mean as you often speak about will work most of the time in most instances, whether it be in the sports wagering markets or others.
Many blessings.
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I read your posts with interest...in actuality someone who offers very good information based on past history and statistics as you are offering is not common, and it is freely given, which is very nice as well.
It is much appreciated,....regression to the mean as you often speak about will work most of the time in most instances, whether it be in the sports wagering markets or others.
I read your posts with interest...in actuality someone who offers very good information based on past history and statistics as you are offering is not common, and it is freely given, which is very nice as well.
It is much appreciated,....regression to the mean as you often speak about will work most of the time in most instances, whether it be in the sports wagering markets or others.
Many blessings.
.....................................thanks to everyone for all the kind words.
We're on quite a roll, let's hope it continues. Realistically we need to expect to hit some rough spots sooner or later.
But we stay the coarse with the info and we should be in good shape.
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Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
I read your posts with interest...in actuality someone who offers very good information based on past history and statistics as you are offering is not common, and it is freely given, which is very nice as well.
It is much appreciated,....regression to the mean as you often speak about will work most of the time in most instances, whether it be in the sports wagering markets or others.
Many blessings.
.....................................thanks to everyone for all the kind words.
We're on quite a roll, let's hope it continues. Realistically we need to expect to hit some rough spots sooner or later.
But we stay the coarse with the info and we should be in good shape.
MY LINES........................................game 4's
Heat -3.29 over Raptors
Warriors -6.56 (with Curry) over Blazers
Ran the numbers taking out Curry's stats.............................
Warriors -3.07 over Blazers
Spurs -6.5 over OKC game 5
Heat a largest value mismatch team off a SU lose has been a very strong spot in the past regardless of my lines which would favor Raptors.
We lost already off this with Heat in round 1 but that's more reason to take it here.
We have injuries with Whiteside and Jonas, Whiteside was the better player regular season and the Heats best rebounder by far, but Jonas has been outplaying him thus far in series.
Jonas 18.3 pts, 12.7 rebs, 2 assists per gamec on 64.9% shooting, 4 blks
Whiteside, 9.3 pts, 10 rebs, a measly .3 assists on 62.5% shooting, 4 blks
Maybe Heat gain and advantage but then again maybe not since Whiteside was the better player regular season.
Heat not likely to lose back-to-back games at home VS an opp not much better if any better.
We side with the Heat tonight with a smaller play because of the injuries . Will wait out the line and see where it heads, if it starts going up I'd jump on the 5.5 for 3 units. 2 units 1st half
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MY LINES........................................game 4's
Heat -3.29 over Raptors
Warriors -6.56 (with Curry) over Blazers
Ran the numbers taking out Curry's stats.............................
Warriors -3.07 over Blazers
Spurs -6.5 over OKC game 5
Heat a largest value mismatch team off a SU lose has been a very strong spot in the past regardless of my lines which would favor Raptors.
We lost already off this with Heat in round 1 but that's more reason to take it here.
We have injuries with Whiteside and Jonas, Whiteside was the better player regular season and the Heats best rebounder by far, but Jonas has been outplaying him thus far in series.
Jonas 18.3 pts, 12.7 rebs, 2 assists per gamec on 64.9% shooting, 4 blks
Whiteside, 9.3 pts, 10 rebs, a measly .3 assists on 62.5% shooting, 4 blks
Maybe Heat gain and advantage but then again maybe not since Whiteside was the better player regular season.
Heat not likely to lose back-to-back games at home VS an opp not much better if any better.
We side with the Heat tonight with a smaller play because of the injuries . Will wait out the line and see where it heads, if it starts going up I'd jump on the 5.5 for 3 units. 2 units 1st half
MY LINES........................................game 4's
Heat -3.29 over Raptors
Warriors -6.56 (with Curry) over Blazers
Ran the numbers taking out Curry's stats.............................
Warriors -3.07 over Blazers
Spurs -6.5 over OKC game 5
Heat a largest value mismatch team off a SU lose has been a very strong spot in the past regardless of my lines which would favor Raptors.
We lost already off this with Heat in round 1 but that's more reason to take it here.
We have injuries with Whiteside and Jonas, Whiteside was the better player regular season and the Heats best rebounder by far, but Jonas has been outplaying him thus far in series.
Jonas 18.3 pts, 12.7 rebs, 2 assists per gamec on 64.9% shooting, 4 blks
Whiteside, 9.3 pts, 10 rebs, a measly .3 assists on 62.5% shooting, 4 blks
Maybe Heat gain and advantage but then again maybe not since Whiteside was the better player regular season.
Heat not likely to lose back-to-back games at home VS an opp not much better if any better.
We side with the Heat tonight with a smaller play because of the injuries . Will wait out the line and see where it heads, if it starts going up I'd jump on the 5.5 for 3 units. 2 units 1st half
JV is a huge loss for Raptors. They run a lot of plays with him on offense early in the game to get the team going..
I don't see Raptor winning here. I expect the Heat to drain a lot of 3s..
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Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:
MY LINES........................................game 4's
Heat -3.29 over Raptors
Warriors -6.56 (with Curry) over Blazers
Ran the numbers taking out Curry's stats.............................
Warriors -3.07 over Blazers
Spurs -6.5 over OKC game 5
Heat a largest value mismatch team off a SU lose has been a very strong spot in the past regardless of my lines which would favor Raptors.
We lost already off this with Heat in round 1 but that's more reason to take it here.
We have injuries with Whiteside and Jonas, Whiteside was the better player regular season and the Heats best rebounder by far, but Jonas has been outplaying him thus far in series.
Jonas 18.3 pts, 12.7 rebs, 2 assists per gamec on 64.9% shooting, 4 blks
Whiteside, 9.3 pts, 10 rebs, a measly .3 assists on 62.5% shooting, 4 blks
Maybe Heat gain and advantage but then again maybe not since Whiteside was the better player regular season.
Heat not likely to lose back-to-back games at home VS an opp not much better if any better.
We side with the Heat tonight with a smaller play because of the injuries . Will wait out the line and see where it heads, if it starts going up I'd jump on the 5.5 for 3 units. 2 units 1st half
JV is a huge loss for Raptors. They run a lot of plays with him on offense early in the game to get the team going..
I don't see Raptor winning here. I expect the Heat to drain a lot of 3s..
Will pass on the Blazers, sounds like Curry will play, how much and how well is another story but it's possible he could explode, off a SU loss I would not fade Warriors with Curry.
To many unkowns in this game
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Will pass on the Blazers, sounds like Curry will play, how much and how well is another story but it's possible he could explode, off a SU loss I would not fade Warriors with Curry.
MY LINES...........................................................
Spurs -6.5 over OKC game 5
We have a play on OKC if the line closes at 7.5 or higher at most books. Can't be just 1 or 2 books, we want the overall perception of the public to be on Spurs and drive the line to 7.5 or higher.
Historically, they way this series has played-out points to Spurs winning the series.
Spurs did what they needed to do, getting back home court advantage. All OKC did was keep the series competitive by getting a split on the road and winning at home preventing Spurs from winning 2 straight in OKC, this is common for teams who are close in ability to an opp but not better .
When teams lose home-court this late in series, they rarely come-back to win series unless they are the better team, which OKC is not.
When OKC came-back down 0-2 VS Spurs a few years back they were clearly the better team in my PR's.
This season Spurs are on an historical level out-shooting opp's by over 5% in 2pt, 3pt, FT, TO, only 4 teams SINCE 1974 first year league tracked all stats needed, have done such things.
Lean Spurs ML
Lean OKC ATS
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2-0 ATS, won 5 units
MY LINES...........................................................
Spurs -6.5 over OKC game 5
We have a play on OKC if the line closes at 7.5 or higher at most books. Can't be just 1 or 2 books, we want the overall perception of the public to be on Spurs and drive the line to 7.5 or higher.
Historically, they way this series has played-out points to Spurs winning the series.
Spurs did what they needed to do, getting back home court advantage. All OKC did was keep the series competitive by getting a split on the road and winning at home preventing Spurs from winning 2 straight in OKC, this is common for teams who are close in ability to an opp but not better .
When teams lose home-court this late in series, they rarely come-back to win series unless they are the better team, which OKC is not.
When OKC came-back down 0-2 VS Spurs a few years back they were clearly the better team in my PR's.
This season Spurs are on an historical level out-shooting opp's by over 5% in 2pt, 3pt, FT, TO, only 4 teams SINCE 1974 first year league tracked all stats needed, have done such things.
Teams that have outperformed their opponent against the spread, net, in a tied up series have the disadvantage spread-wise in a game 5, which points to a Spurs and Raptors cover in game 5. It's a slight edge though and also points to a significant tendency to the under in the Spurs game. The better team (the Spurs) wins the game over 90% of the time, but the games are within 7 points about 54% of the time.
It's interesting that the Raptors and Thunder have stayed with their opponents despite Westbrook, Lowry and DeRozan shooting terribly. Westbrook has the wherewithal to have a great game tonight,...not the same can be said about the Raptor's backcourt.
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Teams that have outperformed their opponent against the spread, net, in a tied up series have the disadvantage spread-wise in a game 5, which points to a Spurs and Raptors cover in game 5. It's a slight edge though and also points to a significant tendency to the under in the Spurs game. The better team (the Spurs) wins the game over 90% of the time, but the games are within 7 points about 54% of the time.
It's interesting that the Raptors and Thunder have stayed with their opponents despite Westbrook, Lowry and DeRozan shooting terribly. Westbrook has the wherewithal to have a great game tonight,...not the same can be said about the Raptor's backcourt.
Looks like the line has hit 7.5, will wait-out the line trying to get 8. Will make a play about 15 minutes before game time on OKC if line stays at 7.5 or higher.
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Looks like the line has hit 7.5, will wait-out the line trying to get 8. Will make a play about 15 minutes before game time on OKC if line stays at 7.5 or higher.
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.....................................thanks to everyone for all the kind
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