1st halves & whole game bets are a total crap-shoot imo....you may disagree....& that's OK.
If you want to keep more of your money...(cause everyone looses eventually..it's true!!!)...stick to 2nd halves. 2H bets give you a statistically significant edge. Almost like picking a winning horse halfway through the race....if you know what you're doing of course!!!
The likelihood of the books coming up with a wrong line & then correcting it is greater than before the start of the game. Remember, they only have a window of less than 15 mins to put out the line....& most books do it 1 min or less after the end of the 2Q. That's a lot of pressure on the dude making the line. Most 2H lines are designed to fool the recreational bettor....by overvaluing the favorite. Sometimes they don't...you'll have to be vigilant.
So yeah...i'll stick to what i do best....but i respect the cappers that call the 1st half & whole game....they must know something i don't. To each his own.
Do you think they're sharper in general due to that reason tho? A lot more high variance in that regard. I know you're crushing it, but I wanted to ask you if you had some kinda models you run or just go by gut feel from watching the first halves, which would obviously mean you know these players better than the coaches themselves and that's a lot to say.
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Quote Originally Posted by JAY6647:
1st halves & whole game bets are a total crap-shoot imo....you may disagree....& that's OK.
If you want to keep more of your money...(cause everyone looses eventually..it's true!!!)...stick to 2nd halves. 2H bets give you a statistically significant edge. Almost like picking a winning horse halfway through the race....if you know what you're doing of course!!!
The likelihood of the books coming up with a wrong line & then correcting it is greater than before the start of the game. Remember, they only have a window of less than 15 mins to put out the line....& most books do it 1 min or less after the end of the 2Q. That's a lot of pressure on the dude making the line. Most 2H lines are designed to fool the recreational bettor....by overvaluing the favorite. Sometimes they don't...you'll have to be vigilant.
So yeah...i'll stick to what i do best....but i respect the cappers that call the 1st half & whole game....they must know something i don't. To each his own.
Do you think they're sharper in general due to that reason tho? A lot more high variance in that regard. I know you're crushing it, but I wanted to ask you if you had some kinda models you run or just go by gut feel from watching the first halves, which would obviously mean you know these players better than the coaches themselves and that's a lot to say.
Do you think they're sharper in general due to that reason tho? A lot more high variance in that regard. I know you're crushing it, but I wanted to ask you if you had some kinda models you run or just go by gut feel from watching the first halves, which would obviously mean you know these players better than the coaches themselves and that's a lot to say.
What would you like me to say to make you feel better about investing your money by getting tips from a total stranger who is posting plays on a sports betting forum on the internet.
#1 - Yes i have a system - It's a special sports prediction software i run on a super computer. It runs multiple algorithms & comes up with the most probable outcome.
#2 - I watch the game - I chug my beer down & say "fuk it"...i'm going with the underdog or "dayummm" i think the public is right on this one...i'm gonna roll with the fav.
#3 - I'm a psychic - I use tarot cards & a crystal ball - most times i'm right.
I think the question here is if you should go with your gut feeling of weather you should follow my plays or fade me.
Ps: i'm not a jerk but i felt that your statement was very condescending - "which would obviously mean you know these players better than the coaches themselves and that's a lot to say."
I'm not one to start a new thread because i had a bad run....same thread since day one of the playoffs - Records updated every night after last game...
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Quote Originally Posted by TooHigh2WonderWhy:
Do you think they're sharper in general due to that reason tho? A lot more high variance in that regard. I know you're crushing it, but I wanted to ask you if you had some kinda models you run or just go by gut feel from watching the first halves, which would obviously mean you know these players better than the coaches themselves and that's a lot to say.
What would you like me to say to make you feel better about investing your money by getting tips from a total stranger who is posting plays on a sports betting forum on the internet.
#1 - Yes i have a system - It's a special sports prediction software i run on a super computer. It runs multiple algorithms & comes up with the most probable outcome.
#2 - I watch the game - I chug my beer down & say "fuk it"...i'm going with the underdog or "dayummm" i think the public is right on this one...i'm gonna roll with the fav.
#3 - I'm a psychic - I use tarot cards & a crystal ball - most times i'm right.
I think the question here is if you should go with your gut feeling of weather you should follow my plays or fade me.
Ps: i'm not a jerk but i felt that your statement was very condescending - "which would obviously mean you know these players better than the coaches themselves and that's a lot to say."
I'm not one to start a new thread because i had a bad run....same thread since day one of the playoffs - Records updated every night after last game...
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