3-1 yesterday, back over 70%. NBA Friday, run the trap!

32-13-2 YTD 2K13

1/24/13 (Booked)
NYK vs BOS: NYK -1.5: $50  (Yup, NYK is the real deal. I'll stay off the spread even with Felton back tommorrow against the 76ers, but they're about to go on a HUGE winning streak).

NYK vs. BOS: UNDER 188: $50  (Well, I called this one to a T. Boston wanted to win, grinded it out on D and NYK sank to their level to win)

LAC vs. PHO: LAC -6.5: $50 (Grossly underestimated how much CP3 means to this team. PHO showed up big time for the new coach...another factor I threw out the window. I'm gonna be off LAC until post all star break. Even with CP3 back they're gonna need some R&R).

TOR vs. ORL: TOR +4.5: $50  (Riding that pony baby, TOR...get.on.board. DeMar DeRozan, I've been hyping him all season!)

Looking good again guys, finished out 3-1 for a small profit. Never planned on going big on any of these games as they were truly high risk can go either way plays. I harped all day about what I thought on all three, no need to re-confirm anything other than this...what makes Chris Paul and MVP caliber player is his ability to elevate the LA Clippers to a championship contender. I didn't watch the whole game like I did TOR and NYK...it was late and I was out...but I did catch the last 3 minutes of the game. The Clippers lacked leadership and someone to create plays, and they lost the game right there.

I'll be the first to admist that I underestimated PHO and the "new coach factor". I wasnt so much concerned about the line movement, it's not really that big of a part of my system other than a good reference note.

With that said there is litterally too much action out there tonight. I've narrowed down my picks to 3-4 games that I like to make some medium aggressive plays.

As always, good luck to everyone in everything you do. Any comments, suggestions, or questions welcomed. I dont book my plays until around 3pm any and I always take something away from everyone's post. Hustle the man and let's run the trap today!

GL Forbes

I hit that same trap with Damn Clippers..

1/25/13 (STRONG Leans, will book by 3pm)

DET vs. MIA: DET +9.5: $150

OKC vs SAC: OKC -9: $150

GS vs CHI: GS +2: $100

UTAH vs. LAL: Utah +4.5: $150

SA vs DAL: SA -1.5: $50 (might not even touch, do not sleep on Dallas, but respect San Antonio).

I originally wanted to post earlier, but I actually am pretty busy today at work, will be on the run with my laptop checking for comments or suggestion, support or reasons to back off.

Will post write up on WHY I'm making these picks later. Good luck today in the Association, RUN THE TRAP!

Back at you CMJ, best of luck tonight. Looking forward to your plays as well.

And here's why I'm looking to play the way I am tonight.

DET vs. MIA: DET +9.5: $150 - I love love love the matchup with DET's perimeter shooting and presence in the paint. I think 1, DET is a better team than TOR and 2, MIA wont show up again until they have to. Are they gonna win? I honestly dont think so. The last time they met wasnt a fluke, I think DET just has the right personnel to take them H2H. I also think in that OT Toronto win MIA spent a lot of energy and will not exactly be pumped up for this game. DET isn't a marquee matchup (sure "revenge factor"...blah blah blah) and the fans arent going to be in it. Plus my buddy Kim English plays for DET, go baby go! They're on the same amount of rest and DET will be up for this game. Lebron and Wade are gonna have to go 110% to come back and win by 5-8 points. Neither side goes over 100pts. Feeling pretty strong on this one. Trap bet for the public going big on Miami.

OKC vs SAC: OKC -9: $150 - SAC has been getting a lot of credit recently sure...but OKC is right now the best team in the NBA. The last time SAC played against top tier teams were against MEM(2), MIA, and Brooklyn...all of them absolute blow outs. OKC is coming off a 1-2 stretch with recent losses to DEN/GS. They're going to drop bombs on SAC. The line looks good to me as well, should be -12 or so, but then no one would take action. POUND OKC!

GS vs CHI: GS +2: $100 - GS is great on the road, CHI is so/so at home. Check GS's resume', they can clock CHI. It's becoming more and more evident that the West Coast is stronger than the East Coast this season. CHI is getting too much value at home. Dont forget, Deng is going to be out. What in the world is CHI gonna do against the X-Factor filled Warriors? Stephan Curry and David Lee are gonna walk on CHI-town. My only hesitation on this to go bigger is CHI has been shutting down the 3pt'ers the last 5 games (down to 32% from 36%...Lakers helped that total tho).

UTAH vs. LAL: Utah +4.5: $150 - Fade LAL until they show me something. They're playing like of bunch of pre-teen girls right now. Dwight's faking injuries, playing like a coward. Kobe's on the down slide of his career, the whole team is embarrased. UTAH is a beast too, most underated team with a winning record right now IMO. Paul Milsap is gonna beat them like a drum down low. The reason LAL is favored is NOT a trap...it's because every person in the world that doesnt have a home team/REALLY follow the NBA is a MIA/LAL fan that will throw their money away. For the love of god if you tail me, GET OFF LAL! They are NOT turning the season around, gonna be worse than '04!

SA vs DAL: SA -1.5: $50 - You know...for every conceivable reason I think DAL will win...but it's the Spurs, everything hinges on whether or not Dallas is really turning their season around. Not much action, 1 unit to see if SA will pull through as a top 5 team in the NBA. What scares me is DAL has been beating some really good teams with only an OT loss to OKC breaking an incredible streak. Plus SA has been on almost an every other day schedule since the 16th...BE CAREFUL on this one or just stay off.

Also, stay off the HOU/NO game...it will piss you off either way. HOU 11-1 ATS streak is done. They need to make a move by the deadline if they're gonna come back...and the New Orleans Pelicans are just awful. No amount of thought or research can handicap this one.

Be wary of BOS, MEM, MIN, and MIL games too...they are all playing very formidable opponents...I tried to figure them out to lean 75% on a side and couldn't. But you can, more power to you. I'll be booked around 3pm CST. Good luck again to all. Any comments or suggestions are welcomed. I'm 50/50 on the SA bet, might just bail...but I like have an uneven number of bets out there to minimize my risks and hedge losses. Hustle the man, run the trap! 

great analysis and money management

bol Forbes, I've heard on the radio that Duncan will be out and Popovich is out sick. 

Glad I just went small on LAC. Good hits last night.
CLE for some reason matchup well vs MIL. Uncle Drew is the real deal. Losing Varejo is big, but Tristan picking up the slack.
Auto-fade HOU especially on road. NO been hot lately with return of gordon. Both teams play no DEF.
GL on ur picks prob stay away from DAL as they are too unpredictable.

Like uta a lot

Thanks sports Wiz, I'll be honest I was a little skeptical when you started as we're both pretty new and I saw you fading a lot of "great posters"...you destroy it man, real deal researcher.

BOL man! We got this.

like.+4.utah.. never make money with them lakers.. and i almost bet on the clippers too just.the 90% of public favoring them was too high.foe me just like the okc v.s golden.state.. anyways bol

***Correction on the CHI/GS game...I said that CHI's defense is over the last 5 games allowing 32% from 3pt line, I quoted what their offense is doing. My apologies, theri D is allowing 32% on the season, down to 24% over the last 5 (DET: 4-13, LAL:3-17, MEM:0-5, BOS:5-15, TOR:3-11). In all of these games CHI needed a HUGE 4th quarter or OT to win (MIRACLE shot against BOS...that's the game that broke boston's heart).

None of those 5 teams can pop a 3 like GS, nor can they swing in from outside the paint like GS. Feeling real good about this one.

Forbes you listen to trap too? haha i smiled when i saw your thread

GReat write ups.  BOL.

You know it, flosstradamus on the commute to work inspired it!

1/25/13 (Booked, tail or fade at your own risk)

DET vs. MIA: DET +9.5: $150 (Hearing a lot of good points on reverse line movement saying this is the play, lets hope it's right!)

OKC vs SAC: OKC -9: $150 (hearing a lot of reasons based on reverse line movement to fade me on this one. We'll put it to the gut check test)

GS vs CHI: GS +2: $100 (kind of like the over on this one, but not enough to play it)

UTAH vs. LAL: Utah +4.5: $150 (Demarre Carrol, guys a beast!)

SA vs DAL: SA -1.5: $50 (less than 75% on this one. Wanting an odd number of action to off set a potential loss w/OKC ATS)

I've made as strong a case as I can for the plays tonight. Good luck to everyone one out there. Here's to 5-0-0. Hustle the man!

I like all your plays. The Dallas game is tough. All the other plays though I really like. GL

GL 

BOL

DET is no joke, they beat them before...sure it was without Wade. But on nights when he's off he's more of hinderance than a help. If the defense gets to him, and he is still a little tired from that Toronto slug fest, he's gonna miss some shots with the increased pressure. DET is a better team SU than TOR was. We....shall...see, good luck tonight man.  

Lebron James hands down best player overall in NBA. Even if he puts up 50 DET can still win this one, they've got the personnell to do it too!

BOL guys