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37-13-1 Hardwood Play for Wednesday

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Posted: #1
Man, was just about to pull the trigger on the Bucks +5 and word got out.  Down to +2.5 now, with all starters sitting this one out for Vogels squad.  No Play as of right now for me, it may actually make the Pacers better.
Houston coming off a 4th strait win over the Champs, not a good spot for them.  Denver has played them tight all year and I could see some guys getting some reduced minutes tonight for Houston.  The only play in this one.......Gold Jerry! Gold!!

Nuggets +1.5
 
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Posted: #2
Bear in mind this actually opened at -5, bet down to -1.5 and now at -2
 
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Posted: #3
Nets in a bad spot back to back on the road, magic might be a play
 
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Posted: #4
I'm not sure it was bet down, 71% of the public is on Houston.  Pretty sure it dropped because Rockets are rumored to be resting some guys tonight.  Either way, I believe Nuggets are the play.  Should have done ML
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by TooHigh2WonderWhy:

Nets in a bad spot back to back on the road, magic might be a play

Def looking at that game as well, I don't like Vucevic being out though.  But ya, Magic would be the only side considered
 
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Posted: #6
Lawson out for Denver makes me nervous about the play.  Chandler out as well
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by St2ee:


Def looking at that game as well, I don't like Vucevic being out though.  But ya, Magic would be the only side considered

Kyle O' Quinn backup center is really good. Vucevic won't be missed that much. Nets deep bench is the only thing worrying me at this point. Rookie plumlee will be pumped and prolly will play, and so will their second string. Magic been rested well though.
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by St2ee:

I'm not sure it was bet down, 71% of the public is on Houston.  Pretty sure it dropped because Rockets are rumored to be resting some guys tonight.  Either way, I believe Nuggets are the play.  Should have done ML

You're right. I meant to say that actually. I have a feeling Rockets still get the win, get the feeling the no of points they win by is between 1-5. They're good on the road and nuggets suck without Lawson. Revenge spot and it's fresh on Nuggets' minds though but really comes to if they're motivated or not.
 
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Posted: #9
I only play em as I see em guys.  I am def not perfect, nor claim to be.  I like the Nuggets in this spot.....alot.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by St2ee:

Man, was just about to pull the trigger on the Bucks +5 and word got out.  Down to +2.5 now, with all starters sitting this one out for Vogels squad.  No Play as of right now for me, it may actually make the Pacers better.
Houston coming off a 4th strait win over the Champs, not a good spot for them.  Denver has played them tight all year and I could see some guys getting some reduced minutes tonight for Houston.  The only play in this one.......Gold Jerry! Gold!!

Nuggets +1.5


Sorry, confused two separate posts.  Brooklyn coming off 4th strait win over the Champs.  Houston 3 strait wins, the last over the chumps (Lakers)

May add Orlando as a play....Leaning
 
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Posted: #11
It is so very hard to stay with just the one pick tonight.  But i have been doing some thinking.  People always ask me, how many unit play is this?  So i started thinking.....Shouldn't you be very confident in all your plays?  After all, we are not playing with monopoly money...marbles...or potato chips here.  If you are not "that" confident in a bet  ie(1 unit) then why bet it at all?  Now don't get me wrong, I am definitely not saying to smash everything in site....quite the contrary.  What I am getting at, is that whatever bankroll management style you have, whether it be high risk or low risk you should generally be making the same bet size for each play.  To say 'I like this game 5x more than this 1x game'..... just doesn't make any sense at all to me.  It is all about bankroll management.  As your bankroll goes up, so can your bet size.  Do not bet 5 units on your best bet of the night and then add three 1 unit plays.  If you only really like the one 5x game, that is all you should be betting. 
 
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Posted: #12
Nuggets is the right play here. If Houston do sit their starters then it's a no brainer. No Lawson...No problem. Brooks will have a big nite against his ex team. Foye will be raining 3s and Manimal will be a big part of tonite's win.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by St2ee:

It is so very hard to stay with just the one pick tonight.  But i have been doing some thinking.  People always ask me, how many unit play is this?  So i started thinking.....Shouldn't you be very confident in all your plays?  After all, we are not playing with monopoly money...marbles...or potato chips here.  If you are not "that" confident in a bet  ie(1 unit) then why bet it at all?  Now don't get me wrong, I am definitely not saying to smash everything in site....quite the contrary.  What I am getting at, is that whatever bankroll management style you have, whether it be high risk or low risk you should generally be making the same bet size for each play.  To say 'I like this game 5x more than this 1x game'..... just doesn't make any sense at all to me.  It is all about bankroll management.  As your bankroll goes up, so can your bet size.  Do not bet 5 units on your best bet of the night and then add three 1 unit plays.  If you only really like the one 5x game, that is all you should be betting. 
Can't tell you how much I thought about this.. Came to a similar conclusion as yours and have been betting the same amount on every game $300. Whenever I feel like playing $100, I ask myself again, and lay off. Believe it or not, those plays hit on a lower clip and as much as that sounds like it's lowering your record/win % and confused with lowering profit, it all depends whether or not it's profitable in the long run or no. Let's say for instance I hit 65% of my max (or 5x plays) I could avoid betting 1x plays at a 60% hit rate and maintain a higher win % but would essentially profit less in volume. So all in all, since no one is that sick at knowing what % they hit on their uniticized (totally made tht word up) plays, it's best to stick with plays you feel confident with betting max on.
Gl!
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by MHC_5280:

Nuggets is the right play here. If Houston do sit their starters then it's a no brainer. No Lawson...No problem. Brooks will have a big nite against his ex team. Foye will be raining 3s and Manimal will be a big part of tonite's win.


Love Manimal tonight
 
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Posted: #15

ST2 ... Denver will let Hou win... Inside info..

 

Hou has the chance to make it all the way if they play their cards right...

 

Big Hou win

 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by TooHigh2WonderWhy:

Can't tell you how much I thought about this.. Came to a similar conclusion as yours and have been betting the same amount on every game $300. Whenever I feel like playing $100, I ask myself again, and lay off. Believe it or not, those plays hit on a lower clip and as much as that sounds like it's lowering your record/win % and confused with lowering profit, it all depends whether or not it's profitable in the long run or no. Let's say for instance I hit 65% of my max (or 5x plays) I could avoid betting 1x plays at a 60% hit rate and maintain a higher win % but would essentially profit less in volume. So all in all, since no one is that sick at knowing what % they hit on their uniticized (totally made tht word up) plays, it's best to stick with plays you feel confident with betting max on.
Gl!


Agreed! 
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by drevolution:

ST2 ... Denver will let Hou win... Inside info..

 

Hou has the chance to make it all the way if they play their cards right...

 

Big Hou win



Well, we are waiting to hear your insight.  Tell us of your conspiracy
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by St2ee:



Agreed! 

Do you bet online? Are you in the US? If so, what's the best online book? I've added you as a friend, so can PM it since it's disallowed on covers to openly talk about it

 
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Posted: #19
St2ee-any more leans?
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by TooHigh2WonderWhy:


Do you bet online? Are you in the US? If so, what's the best online book? I've added you as a friend, so can PM it since it's disallowed on covers to openly talk about it


I did not realize they frowned upon such talk here.  I mean they do advertise sportsbooks right?  I PMed you though, just in case. 
 
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Posted: #21
[Quote: Originally Posted by kevinc004] St2ee-any more leans? [/Quote
Just Orlando, maybe Pelicans depending on the Brows status.
 
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Posted: #22
Brow out!!!! nevermind
 
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Posted: #23
st2ee is that your only play for the day?just wondering.
 
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Posted: #24
Just went off the board as I was about to make a look... you may be right about Houston resting people
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by miguelj:

st2ee is that your only play for the day?just wondering.

Ya i was leaning Orlando, but didn't pull the trigger. 
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