It is in that spirit that I cap this game in his memory given one of the final things Apache did with the little time he had left, to feel normal, to feel whole, was to cap a game.
The game of choice is the Knicks at the Raptors at 7PM tonight.
I have eight words to make this nice and simple if you are tired of reading: the Knicks are going to win this game.
I had a discussion with BeginnerBoy about traditional capping outside of spreadsheets and algorithms and the aggregation and interpretation of statistics and trends of any and all kinds. This is the human element of capping. No PC, no hard drive, no program no matter how powerful can duplicate the human element and insight to a cap a game.
As a season progresses, I believe you can have one team you are so in sync with, a symbiotic relationship develops with that team far beyond spreads. It is through that understanding that you can cap a team effectively. Anyone here with a team they've followed their entire life knows about that relationship. Virtually every day posters from out of nowhere, having not posted for years, come into threads to support or refute a conclusion about a team and capped side. They later disclose they've followed the team their entire life. They are not always correct but I listen when they have something to say about their team. It is almost always helpful.
The Knicks are my team.
How are they? They are not in a good place right now.
They are two games out with 4 left to play. They must win them all and have the Hawks go 1-3 for them to make the playoffs. Impossible? No. Improbable? Maybe.
But lets look at the Knicks schedule:
@ Raptors
Vs. Bulls
@ Nets
Vs. Raptors
What is the most winnable game of all those games? Perhaps the last obviously but the final one or two games of the season become largely unbettable. Teams shut down for the playoffs. Others may have everything to play for. Spreads rise and fall with players being pulled (The Pacers opened at -8 Wednesday and plummeted to -2.5 vs. the Bucks). There is too much volatility. It is the third to last and fourth to last games where you get some stability.
So not only do we have a question of unstable lines in the future, we have motivational issues as the Knicks may or may not be fighting for the playoffs against teams that may or may not be resting players.
There is too much uncertainty there in those last two games perhaps. We will see.
Therefore, the time to strike is NOW. And I can assure you, THIS is the best game of the 4 above which the Knicks can win. And all we need to do is win since the line is Raptors -5 (and that is a big line for the Knicks here and I will get to that).
Why is this the best game?
1. The Knicks are on the brink of elimination with a glimmer of hope remaining.
Yes, they let themselves get here. It didn't have to be this way. There were so many opportunities for the Knicks to be tied with the Hawks here and control their destiny. They do control that destiny anymore.
But there is a bright side.
The Hawks have the following schedule:
@Brooklyn
Miami
Bobcats
@Milwaukee
We can put Miami down as a loss can we not? Miami needs every game they can get and have been suffering through some brutal losses to the T-Wolves and Nets and many others. They will come into ATL and pull no punches.
That means the Hawks have to go 2-1 vs. the Nets, Bobcats, and @ Milwaukee.
Well the Nets are unbeatable at home and even if they rest players, there is still more than enough talent to beat the Hawks. Let's hope they continue to give stars minutes.
That means, the Hawks pretty much have to go 2-0 vs. the Bobcats and Milwaukee. I have a strange feeling that the Bucks, in the last game of a lost season having locked up the #1 lottery slot, will play with nothing to lose as a spoiler if it comes to that. A win over the Bobcats is not easy this year for an Eastern Conference opponent, especially the Hawks.
There is light at the end of the tunnel, however faint.
The Knicks, having lost to the Heat on Sunday, have watched the Heat reduce their Magic number from 4 to 2 with wins over Indy, and Boston. That Detroit loss was huge and had they lost to the Celtics (and boy were they close to doing so), the door would be WIDE open for the Knicks.
Still, this is put up or shut up time. The Knicks need get out fast and win this game. The Detroit loss gave them more hope then the should have here. That needs to be taken advantage of by a capper.
Really, it doesn't matter who their opponent is. It doesn't matter what they are playing for. It doesn't matter where the game is played. The Knicks must win. That is the only goal.