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a manic monday in the sty....

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All-Star
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Posted: #101
I'm eyeing Memphis plus the points
 
Captain
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Posted: #102
Pig-
Looks like the weather cleared up in CIN
 
Hall of Fame
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Posted: #103
Just passing by to say Hi 




 
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Posted: #104
Orioles game:

Over 4.5 F5 Medium

Orioles Full Game Moneyline Medium

starter = Wei Yin Chen and total = 8
SU:10-1 (2.45, 90.9%)  avg line: 108.2 / -118.2  on / against: +$1,075 / -$1,137  ROI: +90.4% / -84.0%
RL:9-2 (2.86, 81.8%)  avg line: -118.2 / 106.1  on / against: +$780 / -$825  ROI: +52.1% / -60.1%
OU:2-9-0 (-1.73, 18.2%)  avg total: 8.0  over / under: -$790 / +$670  ROI: -65.8% / +54.9%
RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team4.48.50.52.26.18.46.45.4
Opp1.97.90.82.36.010.94.87.0

https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?
sdql=starter%3DWei+Yin+Chen+and+total%3D8&
submit=S+D+Q+L+%21&rl=1

starter = Chris Archer and total = 8
SU:4-3 (1.57, 57.1%)  avg line: -138.2 / 127.0  on / against: -$13 / -$19  ROI: -1.3% / -2.6%
RL:2-5 (0.50, 28.6%)  avg line: 120.2 / -132.0  on / against: -$317 / +$281  ROI: -42.6% / +30.0%
OU:3-4-0 (-0.14, 42.9%)  avg total: 8.0  over / under: -$140 / +$80  ROI: -17.9% / +10.5%
RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team4.79.60.33.68.17.95.06.7
Opp3.16.90.62.010.08.45.15.1

https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?
sdql=starter%3DChris+Archer+and+total%3D8&
submit=S+D+Q+L+%21&rl=1

team = Orioles and o:team = Rays and season >= 2012 and total = 8
SU:2-3 (-0.80, 40.0%)  avg line: 124.3 / -134.3  on / against: -$65 / +$45  ROI: -13.0% / +6.5%
RL:2-3 (0.70, 40.0%)  avg line: -161.0 / 148.0  on / against: -$242 / +$206  ROI: -29.7% / +41.2%
OU:3-1-1 (1.60, 75.0%)  avg total: 8.0  over / under: +$195 / -$255  ROI: +36.8% / -44.7%
RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team4.410.00.63.29.47.46.48.8
Opp5.28.40.42.47.69.45.04.6


https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?sdql=team%3DOrioles+and+o%3Ateam%3DRays+
and+season%3E%3D2012+
and+total%3D8&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21&rl=1

Also chasing from yesterday's no Final 5 over cover.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/previews/2014/BAL201404140.shtml

 
Captain
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Posted: #105
I think I will tail the PIttsburgh Over Ultima and pig.
 
Captain
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Posted: #106
Lance Lynn gives up Potatos, how about Garza?
 
Rookie
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Posted: #107
Sorry boys, going against you in CIN/PIT f5. I think both pitchers calm down and settle into form. Although, I can easily see 4 runs being scored. BOL
 
Prospect
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Posted: #108
Quote Originally Posted by henrymethbreath:

Raptors going for it at home.

Bucks have zero to play for.

I would have to say this is like a fun pickup game for the boys, Bucks want to be part of history, too.

Took Bucks OVER 102 First Half Medium-Husky. 

Those tailing may want to go lighter, as bucks can suck sometimes.

Tailing you Henry. The Raptors have been good to me most of the year, especially at home.  GL
 
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Posted: #109
Braves ML
Rays ML
Reds ML

Looking at the Brewers/Cards game..might just ride the streak on that one.

Also looking at the A's/Angels game. Leaning on the A's in that game.
 
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Posted: #110
Henry 1 question for you: why do you think the O'sgame is going Over 4.5 F5? Both Chen and Archer have better ROI on the Under, though the teams have better ROI at the over. But the over is for the FG, so when looking at F5 isn't it better to look at the pitcher stats? Just brainstorming here.

BOL with your picks
 
Captain
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Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by JVH1818:

Henry 1 question for you: why do you think the O'sgame is going Over 4.5 F5? Both Chen and Archer have better ROI on the Under, though the teams have better ROI at the over. But the over is for the FG, so when looking at F5 isn't it better to look at the pitcher stats? Just brainstorming here.

BOL with your picks
That's on the FULL GAME for the pitchers as well. While I do see the full game under could come in, I have confidence in 5 runs in 5 innings.

there are more games than not that cover that Over 4.5.

Also playing it as a function of it not cashing yesterday. 

Also, if you look at Archer's losses, 2 of 3 went over and he exited in the 4th.
 
Veteran
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Posted: #112
Thanks for the love sty

Nba

Very very small play
Bos-1 1h

Nervous about playing nba until playoffs so gonna roll small

Bol all
 
Captain
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Posted: #113
To be honest, I have more confidence in the Orioles winning the game, but I think this is one of those where if the Orioles win, they knock Archer of the tracks early. 
 
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Posted: #114
Quote Originally Posted by henrymethbreath:

To be honest, I have more confidence in the Orioles winning the game, but I think this is one of those where if the Orioles win, they knock Archer of the tracks early. 


I agree with O's winning this game, but I don't see them knocking Archer around TOO bad. I like under FG, especially at 8.5
 
Captain
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by heyyomikey07:



I agree with O's winning this game, but I don't see them knocking Archer around TOO bad. I like under FG, especially at 8.5
I agree with the full game under. no play as I don't want to cross my tracks.

We'll see.

I like Full game orioles Pikc the best. and something about that -120 on under 4.5 seems too obvious to me. 

a run an inning and we're golden. 
 
Captain
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Posted: #116
Those who have interest may want to look at the Cardinals Reverse Run Line and the Brewers Run Line.

Cards reverse Run line -1.5.... +155

Brewers Run Line -1.5.... +175


hmmmm. that's interesting.

 
Rookie
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Posted: #117
Tor line down to 10 what's up
 
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Posted: #118
No derozen 
 
Captain
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Posted: #119
Quote Originally Posted by broker9:

Tor line down to 10 what's up
I don't know much about basketball, but I'd have to guess 11 points and 10 points on a spread is a big difference when taking free throws.
 
Captain
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Posted: #120
RaptorsMR ?@RaptorsMR  18m
DeMar DeRozan dressing but not expected to play tonight vs. Milwaukee (rest). Vasquez gets the start. #RTZ #Raptors
 
Prospect
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Posted: #121
Quote Originally Posted by henrymethbreath:

Those who have interest may want to look at the Cardinals Reverse Run Line and the Brewers Run Line.

Cards reverse Run line -1.5.... +155

Brewers Run Line -1.5.... +175




hmmmm. that's interesting.




Nice catch HMB....very interesting indeed

 
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Posted: #122
Libertad to beat Nacional Asuncion (Paraguay)

starting in 20
 
MVP
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Posted: #123
Hey guys, busy a lot again so tough to get out the posts.  Looks like you guys are already into it so adding my early games.

F5 Atl -120 SMALL.  Always enjoy betting against Carmona, and Santana truly is better, but Braves hitting (or lack of) scares me a bit, so taking it easy on this.
F5 Over 3.5 -135 Was/Mia SMALL/MEDIUM.  Over 4 isn't bad either.  These teams are both top 10 in both batting averages and runs scored.  And the pitchers don't impress me;  either or both has a lot of potential to get smacked around.  Added bonus that they already played 4 times this year and went over in 3 of them.
F5 Over 4.5 -135 Sea/Tex SMALL/MEDIUM.  Neither team is hitting great but both offenses coming off an especially lousy performance.  I think the pitchers are suspect and at least one should get hit hard.

More coming.  GL   

 
Captain
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Posted: #124
Let me, once again, harp on the Runline relationship..

1 out of all of these games did the +1.5 runline hit when the brewers lost

starter = Matt Garza and o:team = Cardinals
SU:4-3 (-1.00, 57.1%)  avg line: 102.8 / -112.8  on / against: +$110 / -$135  ROI: +15.1% / -16.4%
RL:5-2 (0.07, 71.4%)  avg line: -136.9 / 120.8  on / against: +$221 / -$264  ROI: +19.3% / -33.8%
OU:5-2-0 (2.43, 71.4%)  avg total: 8.0  over / under: +$280 / -$360  ROI: +36.8% / -46.2%
RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team4.710.60.92.96.19.45.67.0
Opp5.710.30.74.07.09.65.67.4


https://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?
sdql=starter%3DMatt+Garza+and+o%
3Ateam%3DCardinals
&submit=S+D+Q+L+%21&rl=1


starter = Lance Lynn and o:team = Brewers
SU:4-2 (1.83, 66.7%)  avg line: -128.3 / 118.3  on / against: +$107 / -$137  ROI: +13.3% / -22.5%
RL:4-2 (0.83, 66.7%)  avg line: -102.7 / -110.6  on / against: +$313 / -$349  ROI: +44.6% / -41.5%
OU:4-2-0 (0.33, 66.7%)  avg total: 8.2  over / under: +$170 / -$235  ROI: +25.2% / -36.4%
RunsHitsErrorsWalksStrike OutsGround BallsFly BallsTeam LOB
Team5.29.20.34.37.89.73.58.0
Opp3.38.00.32.89.87.75.56.5

and would you look at that?!


I've made some good coin riding the Brewers but I"m having a tough time betting them tonight.

WIll be waiting to see how f4:00 games go to play on this game. 
 
 
Captain
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Posted: #125
And by the way, if a dog wins, it's implicit that the runline cashes. 
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