According to FiveThirtyEight Celtics have the best chance of winning the Finals!

Celtics 50% chance of getting there and 36% of winning it, followed by 

Suns 37/18

Bucks 21/11

Warriors 22/9

Heat 14/6

Clippers 14/5

76ers

Mavs

Jazz

Grizz 7/2

Nets 3% to get there 1% to win

Interesting. 

Only team that stands in their way that have given them trouble ....

Bucks, and Heat.

I'm liking Boston or Miami coming out of the East and my Darkhorse Play is.... "Dallas Mavericks" !!! These kids can play defence and can win on the road. And they have that one superstar in "Doncic" that you can depend on when you need that Big Basket late in the game. 

Mavs not coming out of the East 

I wish 538 would take action. I’d lay -110 all day they don’t get there. 

@begginerboy

 Was that Boston rating out prior to losing Williams?

@Nuscas

 No, they update it all the time. But it does factor in all their previous wins and stats. I also read an article about the odds the books have set in regards to Boston. The books own data suggests they should be a bigger favorites to come out of the East, but because nobody is really betting on Boston they are fine with leaving them as dogs in the +400 range. The books are basically trying to even the action so there is less liability. They have no liability with the Celtics. 

celts/bucks/grizz/suns best 4 teams in the playoffs

celts the hottest, hence the odds

raps come in hot as well, but they dont have that true #1 scorer

According to 5/38 Clippers have better chance of reaching the finals than Grizz?! Would love to see those 2 tussle on the first round. 

Fivethirtyeight is a joke.  The Clippers have to win two games in a row just to qualify for the playoffs.

@begginerboy

 ya that is whack....grizz way better than clips....grizz might be the best TEAM in the league....they play great team ball

heard Kawhi might come back though (which seems to be factored in the odds), clips are a completely different team if he plays

Where's the Lakers odds?

i have certainly heard of 538 but have never really spent time at the site...are these odds based purely on statistical performance in this regular season only?nothing to do with past history or human factors?

@melossinglet

 There are pages and pages of info where they explain how they come up with these models. In fact, years past they had a couple of different models and posted what each model predicted. And sometimes the results were different based on the model. 

Mavs are done, Luka is out with a fake and scripted injury 

Scammmmm, Boston has zero chance to win the title this year... They may not even get past round 1 if they face the Nets

boston sucks tho? loool joke of a teM

@begginerboy

"There are pages and pages of info where they explain how they come up with these models. In fact, years past they had a couple of different models and posted what each model predicted. And sometimes the results were different based on the model. "

 So what youre saying is they can come up with any stats depending on what they wanna favor in that moment?  Sounds like every argument ever on Facebook lol

That’s how statistical models work. The proof is in the pudding. You have to check their record to see it’s success rate. Lots of guys on covers have their own models and systems. 

Here you go:

”How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Our player-based RAPTOR forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based entirely on our NBA player projections, which estimate each player’s future performance based on the trajectory of similar NBA players. These are combined with up-to-date depth charts — tracking injuries, trades and other player transactions — to generate talent estimates for each team. A team’s full-strength rating assumes all of its key players are in the lineup. A team’s current rating reflects any injuries and rest days in effect at the moment of the team's next game. Elo ratings — which power the pure Elo forecast — are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. Read more »

Game metrics are on a 0-100 scale. Quality is determined by the harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings; importance measures how much the result will alter playoff projections; the overall number is the average of the quality and importance values.“

[Quote: Originally Posted by begginerboy]Celtics 50% chance of getting there and 36% of winning it, followed by  Suns 37/18 Bucks 21/11 Warriors 22/9 Heat 14/6 Clippers 14/5 76ers Mavs Jazz Grizz 7/2 Nets 3% to get there 1% to win[/Quote]

Not sure if they win...

However...

Their team defense is the best in the NBA.

Don’t tell me I didn’t warn you!