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Any reasons to take Heat -1.5?

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
I'm leaning Nuggets on this one but the line is hella confusing to me. Heat got whooped in their previous game against one of the who worst team in the league Atlanta Hawks. Now they're facing the topdog in western conference...and they're the favorites? What gives?

Before I lock my bet I always try to find any reasons or angles to back the other team..but I have a hard time finding any legit angle to back Heat in this spot except for the fact that the line is shady. 
 
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Posted: #2

Quote Originally Posted by jonathanjaar:

I'm leaning Nuggets on this one but the line is hella confusing to me. Heat got whooped in their previous game against one of the who worst team in the league Atlanta Hawks. Now they're facing the topdog in western conference...and they're the favorites? What gives?Before I lock my bet I always try to find any reasons or angles to back the other team..but I have a hard time finding any legit angle to back Heat in this spot except for the fact that the line is shady.

I am on the Heat tonight, but none of this is why. You asked for reasons so I'm just copy/pasting from a trends website. I don't put a TON of value in trends, but here's a few.

 
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Posted: #3

Top Trends for this game.

DENVER is 181-227 ATS (-68.7 Units) when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.

DENVER is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.

MIAMI is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History

MIAMI is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons

MIAMI is 2-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons

2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 
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Posted: #4

They also had to travel over 1700 miles for this game.

 

 
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Posted: #5
I thought the same thing about the Nuggets with my initial look at the game.  Digging a little more it's a weird spot for them on a back to back with a possible big injury (other bigs to fill in) so I will tread lightly and take the nuggets for a half unit.  Good Luck.
 
Legend
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Posted: #6

Quote Originally Posted by trustandfall:

They also had to travel over 1700 miles for this game.

Houston to Miami is 1,187 miles.

 

 
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Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:

Quote Originally Posted by trustandfall:

They also had to travel over 1700 miles for this game.
Houston to Miami is 1,187 miles.

Blame https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/matchup/nuggets-heat-2019-01-08/travel

Must be calculating from Denver

 
 
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Posted: #8

Quote Originally Posted by loserforeverz:

do all these trends include miami playing a vastly superior team on a 1 2 point bucket spread though?? Sometimes trends make a lot of senss, but not for this game.

First off, Miami is one of the greatest teams defensively in the NBA. Secondly, I already said I don't pay a TON of attention to trends. He asked for reasons, I supplied information.

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