Posted:
#1
Hey guys, have some thoughts I felt like sharing regarding the upcoming Heat vs. Nets series, particularly around why I feel that the Nets at +415 are an extremely valuable play.
Firstly, let's get this out of the way early in the thread. The Heat are the defending champs. I'm not here saying they're a false favorite or that the Nets are going to roll through them, I'm simply pointing out that I believe this will be a very close, hard fought series, and one that could very easily see Brooklyn heading home for Game 6 up 3-2. At this price it's an auto play.
1. The Brooklyn offense is a very very difficult matchup for the Miami defense. The Heat's defense is predicated on hedging HARD on the pick and roll, often times even 28 feet away from the basket. This team relies on its foot speed after the 4 on 3 develops to A. get the opponent to panic and throw the ball away or B. simply force a contested jump shot due to how quickly Miami recovers. The Brooklyn offense doesn't rely on pick and roll, almost at all. This team plays its offense inside out, and strangely enough it manages to do so by playing shooting guards and small forwards on the inside. Note: these are the kinds of systems Miami often struggles against. Brooklyn doesn't have a Dirk or a Tim Duncan, but the point is that opponents have found playoff success in the past against Miami with a post-centric offense. This style can wear Miami out, it's a grind.
2. Miami has the best player in the world, that isn't changing in this series. Thing is, Brooklyn has fantastic floor balance and depth. Brooklyn has solid, experienced players at every position on the floor, many of whom are capable of putting the ball on the floor, posting, hitting 3's, or getting into the paint. This is also very important for the Nets defense, as Pierce, Johnson, Anderson, Livingston, and Kirlenko can all be rotated onto Lebron and Wade as required. There is no one guy being fed to the wolves here with the Lebron responsibility, the Nets have a very interchangeable defense that can switch ad nauseum and not be at a disadvantage while doing so.
3. Brooklyn's biggest weakness is its rebounding, particularly how many offensive boards they surrender. This is a non-issue against Miami. Spoelstra makes it a point for the Heat to not chase the offensive glass - similar to Pop and Rivers, Spo has consistently preferred for his teams to get back in transition instead.
4. Pierce and Garnett have the biggest rivalry with Heat in the entire league, still. Yes, Indiana poses a big threat too, but Pierce and Garnett have a massive chip on their shoulders every time they play against the Heat. No idea what tangible value that creates in this series, if any, but these guys are singlehandedly capable of swinging a game with their mental tricks. Additionally, Garnett is very very well rested. If and when he is needed in this series, his minutes can in fact be upped.
5. The whole 4-0 in the regular season thing is worth something I suppose, but to me the most important thing is how many minutes of on-court experience this very team has built up playing crunch time, close games in the last 5 mins of the 4th quarter against the 2014 Heat. The Nets are very familiar with the opponent and have shown to not have any inferiority complex whatsoever.
The first game may be a tough turnaround off Game 7 and not having seen Miami with Wade in for a while, but nonetheless I think this will be a long, drawn out series and that a Miami win is no sure thing. Similar to how Memphis makes OKC play their least preferred style, Brooklyn brings this out of Miami. I think a fair price on this series is Brooklyn +170, and 245 cents of value make this one of those rare future plays that are actually worth investing in. Good luck to you guys if you decide to take a stab as well.
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. Before I read this I would not have been.
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