Posted:
#1
Been posting individual topics last few nights but thought i may as well post a season-long thread. Personally backing every play posted in here, so I too will be feeling the (many) highs and the (not so many) lows! Here's what i've got for tonight...
Jazz +7.5@OKC
What worries me about the Jazz?
Utah Jazz playing their best ball right now and this both encourages me and makes me panic... I generally don't like backing teams who are smelling their own ass and getting more media attention than usual (Mitchell)
On the Road...
I mentioned this in my preview last night, but the Jazz (+Nuggets) have such huge home court advantages that it covers for them being a poor road team. Despite their amazing surge winning their last 6, they're still just 2-7 on the road compared to 11-4 @ home.
Take the points...
B2B
No matter how many minutes they played in their crushing win yesterday... This is still a B2B and they have had to travel straight after their win yesterday. Donavan Mitchell expressed his teams hatred for back to backs in an interview after their win v Pelicans, one of their youngest guys so god knows how the rest feel...
Injuries
Rodney Hood has been ruled OUT, he gives this team a lot of scoring, putting pressure on Mitchell + the starters again to deliver like they have during this 6 game streak... sustainable? Neto is currently questionable at the time of writing, If he is out this is a thin team on a B2B...
SO WHY YOU SAYING THE JAZZ???
OKC HATE DD LEADS
Strange matchup between these teams, but this is a lot of points for this OKC team who despite their 'Big Three' give up double-digit leads for fun. Of course, OKC could just click like they did v Warriors and that would be enough to beat anybody in this league comfortably... But they've played like that 1 night out of 22 games. Their two most recent matches (Timberwolves -5.5 & Austin Spurs -8) they held resounding double digit leads and controlled the game, only to be pegged back and failed to cover. This spread is nearly the same as when they played the Austin Spurs... Let that sink in...
How many mins???
The starters played the same amount of minutes yesterday v Wizards as the bench, that is pretty huge against this up-tempo OKC team. This line opened OKC -7... You telling me that the Starters resting is worth giving OKC +.5? It has not been accounted for with the line one bit!
Lights Out 
Jazz have been simply superb in this 6 game winning streak, confidence will be sky high if you believe in that sorta stuff...
OKC@Jazz...
86-97
I watched the whole of this game as a neutral and boy was it painful watching OKC take jump shot after jump shot after jump shot, it really should have been a bigger margin of victory. Despite signs of it, Westbrook is still yet to take control of this OKC trio leading to many minutes of straight up ISO and droughts. I'm unsure on whether Gobert has a minutes restriction again ( I presume he will) but i can't see it being easy for OKC to slash the basket and get to the free throw line. Leading to a close, scrappy affair and the +7.5 points just seems 1.5 points too high.
Play the Jazz up to +6.5
Good luck with your bets!
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