Blow out games

The losing team never comes back..they give up and lose by more... How do u not take Nuggets 2nd half?

@davemush

Cause it's a degen bet, only reason you would even think about taking nuggets 2h is if you missed out on 1h and fg.  Why risk profits that are already secured, just being greedy at that point

Under

@davemsh

 Sprinkle some on the 2H ML, +245 at my book, if you think they win by more than 30 

@Digitalkarma

  +7 Looks very tempting....

@joeflaccid

It not a degen bet..All the Suns chasers will take the bait and Chase the Suns...Just like all the blowouts in the Fakers/GS series.. The Suns backers think they getting +23 for the game...I have not seen a team down huge come backs and cover a 2nd half line...Gotta go back all the way to the Hawks/Celtics in the 1st round...

They probably win by 25

@davemush

Well I'm sitting comfy with nuggets ml and +2. You do you gl 

@jonflaccid

I did not ask what u are playing..Get over youself...What a loser...What did u play in the Celtics game?

NBA is a joke up by 29 under 6 min to go against a joke of a team and their star is still on the court

Just wanted the triple double

Oh Look Nuggets covered 2nd half.....What a shocker...I mean Jon Flaccid..will be telling me otherwise.....Blowout games...Its free money...Last 10-12 blowout games..NOOONE covers the 2nd half line and makes a comeback...

@davemush

Congrats you hit your degen bet 

@joeflaccid

 It not a degen bet dumb dumb....It's called trends....it's been cashing like a free ATM...Facts...go look at all the blowout games... Tell me who has come back? Hence why u never chase a losing team live betting when down big as u get wrecked...Books will keep on throwing out lines for the losing team as a fave 2nd half...

@camby700

 Unbelievable nuggets only score 44 in the 2nd half. 

@davemsh

 Nice call

@davemsh congrats  glad to see you eventually had faith in Denver!  

@davemsh

I've been betting the NBA playoffs for over a decade and this is a clear trend. My friend and I picked up on it a few years ago. If a team is up double digits, especially at home, its usually a pick em or underdog -whatever for them to come back and win when the majority of the time the favorite actually extends the lead in the 2H or at least doesn't blow the lead.

You're getting major line value based on expected regression from the underdog's level of play when in reality why would they regress if they've played like garbage for the whole half? If you just treat the 2nd half as a new game, the Nuggets should have only been 1 point underdogs since they were 2 point dogs for the full game. Even if you expect regression assuming the 1st half as an anomaly, it should only have been Suns +3 or +4 at most.

You're 100% right and for some reason very few people in the world have caught on. 2H lines in blowouts are mispriced in favor of the underdogs to make a comeback. The favorites are nearly always the right play.

I had several people walk up to me last night and they all wanted suns -7 to cover the 2nd.  I gladly took their action  

Interesting 

Another blowout game where the losing team gets blown out and quits and were favored 2nd half......ALL GS Live bets gets crushed....See the trend here...