Bobcats +9, Pelicans -9, Pistons +1.5

Easy win on the Warriors last night.

Bobcats +9 @ Knicks
Factor: Riding the “auto-faded” team/The bounce back game myth

The one thing I love about the first few weeks of the season is how the performance of a team last season is being used by the betting public as barometer for the current season. Again, past performance has nothing to do with future performance. As stated in my previous write-up about the Bobcats, they’re designated as an auto-fade by some bettors because they have been the worst team in the past two seasons. In their first three games, it looks like they’re heading again for a miserable season of blowout defeats and lethargic play. Never mind that they’ve added some talent. Never mind that their young players are continuing to develop. They’re still the Bobcats and it won’t be any different.

Conventional wisdom says that the Knicks bounce back in this spot after an embarrassing performance against the Timberwolves. The pathetic Bobcats are the perfect fodder for the Knicks to get back on track. But using conventional wisdom didn’t make anyone rich. Yes, there are some teams that are adept in bouncing back after losses (e.g. see Miami last season) but the Knicks are not in the same level as Miami. Not even close. They got worse this season. They’re older, slower and have Bargnani on the team. They still have an aura of a powerhouse team in the eyes of the betting public because they have the name recognition of being the Knicks, They have superstar scorer Carmelo Anthony. They made the playoffs last year as the second seed in the East.

Because of the fact that it’s the Bobcats plus the belief that the Knicks are a great team, this spread is grossly inflated. The Knicks are not nine points better than the Bobcats. I wouldn’t even be surprised if the Bobcats win this game straight up.

Suns @ Pelicans -9
Factor: Trendy dog

Another common behavior that I love about the betting public is how much stock they put into team standings. “Hey, the Suns are 2-1 and 3-0 ATS while the Pelicans are just 1-2 SU and ATS. I’m getting nine points with the team with the better record. Easy money!” That’s why 95% of bettors don’t win in the long run. Wins and losses are nice but they don’t tell the entire story. Simply put, the Pelicans are the better team overall. The Suns are projected to be one of the worst teams coming into this season and two nice wins and a close game against OKC (which just got Westbrook back) quickly changed that perception. Just like the Sixers after a 3-0 start and sexy wins against the Bulls and Heat, the Suns are getting a little bit of undeserved love from the public. Miles fucking Plumlee won’t sniff double digit points or rebounds against stud sophomore Anthony Davis. After that embarrassing loss to the Magic, the Pelicans vowed to concentrate on defense. They have the offensive firepower to bamboozle other teams. They just needed a complete effort on both sides of the ball and this two-game set with the Bobcats (they won by 21) and the Suns will help them carve their own identity. This one won’t even be close.

Pacers @ Pistons +1.5
Factor: Too good to be true short road fave/Look ahead game

The Pacers are one of the teams that got pretty overhyped prior to the season. Deservedly so I must say. They pushed the Heat to the brink of elimination last season. They’re a young team that still has a lot of upside meaning they haven’t reached their peak yet. They’re an elite defensive team that could shut down anybody in the league. But offensively, there’s a lot of things they could do better. They’re not a good outside shooting team. Most of the time, they have trouble manufacturing points and a long scoring drought ensues. A team like Detroit who has the size and length (J-Smoove, Drummond and Monroe) will give this team a lot of trouble. The Pacers won’t be able to outrebound this team, something that they exploit most nights. Seriously, the Pistons outrebounded the Grizzlies in their game. To outrebound the Grizzlies is a serious feat because that’s their bread and butter. This is an early season game and with a team like Detroit who has playoff aspirations, a home game against a team they’re trying to reach or even surpass is a serious matter. There was a lot of talk about Detroit’s playoff chances coming into this season but not to the extent of the hype the Pacers received. The latter is the better team no doubt but as I always say, the better team doesn’t always win. You have to pick your spots because publicly available information are already incorporated in the spread. Everybody already knows that the Pacers are good. Don’t state the obvious bro. Oh, the Pacers have the Bulls and the Nets on deck. Complacency usurps competence. This is great spot for the Pistons to get a quality win early in the season.

YTD: +10.08 units

Great insight bro. I tailed you with the warriors last night. I see you know the NBA pretty well. Do you think the Spurs will win tonight in Denver?

Like your write-ups. I want take Charlotte+9 but live 45 mins away from them. they have improved but are so bad last few years its hard think they will return to their pathetic ways, but new coach slight upgrades to their roster is starting to show.

 

Dragic is out for Suns so they will miss his scoring and playmaking.

What's your thoughts on Spurs -3.5 and Portland -1.5? thinking of playing them thanks

Forgot to mention, it's for 2.80 units to win 2.66 units each.

No opinion on the Denver game but gun to my head, I'll take the Nuggets plus the points.

Bol.

Portland, Houston is on a 4 cities and 4 games in 5 nights right now

smart guy!

Pacers coming off 3 day rest....don't read too much into that line....bol

Yeah I think people are overthinking this Pistons game... Yeah Pistons are improved, they still are averaging 20 turnovers a game though.  Playing against a solid, seasoned team like the Pacers they will not turn the ball over, will force Pistons into their normal amount of turnovers.  The Pistons have evened up this game underneath, but still are very outclassed in the backcourt and Pacers get the win.

*like the Pacers THAT will not turn the ball over

possible frontcourt for charlotte tomorrow: mkg,bismack,zeller. you got a good point dude but those three just stink.

I like your style. I wil be on Pelicans tonight too for all the same reasons. Dragic being out for the Suns is huge. I have no faith in any other guard on the Suns to be the floor general.

Great topic. Although I like the Knicks tonight. I like to use the bounce back thing, but only when the line is at least fair. I thing NY -9 is fair.

Solid write-up

Appreciate the write ups, great feel for teams from game to game. 

Where did you read this new concentration on defense?

From the AP preview

The Pelicans clamped down defensively after dropping their first two games, limiting the Bobcats to 37.5 percent shooting.
"We wanted to show that when we play good defense, we're a tough team to beat," Davis said. "We knew we had to come in and get this win. It wasn't even about Charlotte tonight, it was more about us. We had to get back to playing Pelican basketball."

Any feel for the Spurs game? Tons of people jumped on Spurs early and the line went up to -4...I would be concerned if the line didnt move but im thinkin i like the Spurs

 Like all 3

As I've said gun to my head, I'll take Denver but don't take it as a recommendation.

Solid write up bro, Out of your three picks,  which one you like the most and why? 

Pelicans -9 but I put the same percentage of my bankroll (2.8%) to each play. The Suns suck. Don't be fooled by their surpising good start. They come back to earth starting tonight. They're 15-point dogs tomorrow for God's sake.

Det pk now, still bet Det my friend ?

Yes. But of course you lost some value since the ML when they were still +1.5 is plus money and now you're laying 11 to 10. I see them winning this one so it won't matter. I hope. LOL