Posted:
#51
I pick so many games because I am trying to become a proficient capper. I've been testing out my how accurate my betting system is and I want a large sample size of games to see how often I can beat the given spread. Basically I've been calculating the most probable spread outcome and then betting against the given spread according to which end I had(If I have a -5.5 probable spread for a game and its -5 currently I would take the -5 line, alternatively I would take a +6 line.)
These analytics are a work in progress and I continually tweak the module and keep experimenting with different inputs while trying to improve the output results. These numbers are thoroughly analysed and have advanced algorithms in place to produce results, one edge is how the stats are converted to real life scenarios. Most stats come out as averages and it is important to adjust the median into the numbers to receive more accurate percentiles. A dog might show out to cover a +3.5 spread 55% of the time, but the favorite will cover -8.5 at a 45 percentile; with averages alone you will have an inflated spread line of -5 where you want it at about +4. There's lots of other factors in play like adjusting for momentum, mitigating outlier inflation, etc. So far I've had good success and I will continue toning my craft.
I was toying around with the O/U combo bets and pushing spreads according to different EV lines. It was very taxing work doing so many games every day, the total effort it took diminished away from the individual effort put on each line. This was more to experiment the module and it didn't perform that well in this department, especially in the O/Us. Either way I'm not sure, I will have to put more work into this for more conclusive results to figure out if these bets outpay vigless. Maybe with a new approach and formula these bets will be highly profitable, we'll see.
Also I have different rankings for quality of the bets so I usually make separate plays for the lines that seem like good value. I've had a few off days but its been mostly constitant, idk what you're really expecting. I've capped nearly 300 games in 20 days of betting, and managed to stay positive. I'm a bookies worst nightmare
, I'll post a YTD soon. If you aren't expecting to lose then you shouldn't be gambling.
, I'll post a YTD soon. If you aren't expecting to lose then you shouldn't be gambling.0
420
heres a garbage version of what I had written before:
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