Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
111 - 76 @ 60% for +27.4 Units
Mon, 03/14
#1: Miami Heat -4
These are the top 10 defensive teams @ home this season: Chicago 89.3 ppg, Milwaukee 89.5 ppg, New Orleans 91.4 ppg, Orlando 91.6 ppg, Boston 92.1 ppg, Portland 93.4 ppg, Miami 93.7 ppg, LA Lakers 94.4 ppg, Philadelphia 94.6 ppg, San Antonio 95.6 ppg. Why am I listing them? Well, it’s because the Spurs have had trouble against these type of ‘defensive’ squads on the road this year. Let’s list all of those games:
Nov 28th @ New Orleans WON 109-95 (1-0)
Dec 23rd @ Orlando LOST 123-101 (1-1)
Jan 5th @ Boston LOST 105-103 (1-2)
Jan 12th @ Milwaukee WON 91-84 (2-2)
Jan 22nd @ New Orleans LOST 96-72 (2-3)
Feb 1st @ Portland LOST 99-86 (2-4)
Feb 3rd @ Los Angeles WON 89-88 (3-4)
Feb 11th @ Philadelphia LOST 77-71 (3-5)
Feb 17th @ Chicago LOST 109-99 (3-6)
Mar 14th @ Miami ??
The first game was @ New Orleans fairly early in the season. The Spurs were actually down by 17 points at half-time in that game, but came back to not just win, but blow the Hornets out in the 2nd half, outscoring them by 31 points. The Spurs were also losing by 8 points at the half-time of the Jan 12th game @ Milwaukee, but again mounted a comeback in the 2nd half. The game in LA was won on a last second tip-in shot. My point here is that even in their wins against these “top-10 defensive teams at home”, the Spurs have struggled. In their 6 losses, the average margin was -13 points. And now they get to face a #7 defensive home team on this list.
In addition to this ‘angle’ there are a number of other factors that favor the Heat. Speaking of being a defensive juggernaut at home, Miami has allowed 86.5 ppg on 39.6% shooting in their last 2 home games ( LAL and MEM). This team has really picked up its intensity on the defensive end. Spurs, though, have been going in an opposite direction. They’ve allowed their opponent to score 100+ points in their last 3 games. Even though they are 3-0 in that span, allowing Detroit, Sacramento, and Houston to shoot 46% and average 105 ppg against them signifies a slight lack-of-intensity. Will they turn-it-on against the Heat tonight? Perhaps. But how effective will they be at shutting down Miami who will be looking for ‘revenge’ in this one?
Speaking of ‘revenge’, this is a really big ‘revenge’ game for Miami. Only a week and half ago was when a tired Miami team went to San Antonio, to get completely embarrassed by the Spurs. Duncan’s “It’s over” comment to his teammates in the first half, has been replayed all over ESPN that whole weekend and in coverage leading up to the Lakers/Heat game last week. We all know how Miami loves to use the ‘Us vs. the WORLD’ mantra as motivation, and tonight won’t be any different. I mean, they are going up against ‘the best’ team in the NBA that completely dominated them not too long ago. The Spurs shot 56% in that game and 17 for 28 from ‘downtown’ (61%). It’s very unlikely that they will be this ‘hot’ again in this rematch on the road. I expect LeWade and Co. to respond.
I know I’ve discussed Miami’s issues with playing ‘winning teams’ lately (they are 4-9 ATS in the 2nd half of the season, although 2-0 last 2 games), but Spurs have been just as bad. They are only 3-7 ATS against winning teams in their last 10 games, and 1-5 ATS in the last 6. This team is only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games facing a team with a .600+ winning home record, an indication that the bookies have been over-valuing this squad. Last meeting @ San Antonio, the Spurs were -2.5 favorites. The Heat were playing a 2nd game of a b2b after a demoralizing loss to Orlando at home, where Magic came back from being down by 20+ in that one. Now Miami is -4 at home tonight in a ‘revenge’ spot. With a standard 6 point adjustment and discounting for b2b, we can easily see that this line is pretty accurate. We’re getting an accurate line and with the factors favoring the Heat in this one, I expect the outcome to be very different from the first meeting between these 2 squads.
111 - 76 @ 60% for +27.4 Units
Mon, 03/14
#1: Miami Heat -4
These are the top 10 defensive teams @ home this season: Chicago 89.3 ppg, Milwaukee 89.5 ppg, New Orleans 91.4 ppg, Orlando 91.6 ppg, Boston 92.1 ppg, Portland 93.4 ppg, Miami 93.7 ppg, LA Lakers 94.4 ppg, Philadelphia 94.6 ppg, San Antonio 95.6 ppg. Why am I listing them? Well, it’s because the Spurs have had trouble against these type of ‘defensive’ squads on the road this year. Let’s list all of those games:
Nov 28th @ New Orleans WON 109-95 (1-0)
Dec 23rd @ Orlando LOST 123-101 (1-1)
Jan 5th @ Boston LOST 105-103 (1-2)
Jan 12th @ Milwaukee WON 91-84 (2-2)
Jan 22nd @ New Orleans LOST 96-72 (2-3)
Feb 1st @ Portland LOST 99-86 (2-4)
Feb 3rd @ Los Angeles WON 89-88 (3-4)
Feb 11th @ Philadelphia LOST 77-71 (3-5)
Feb 17th @ Chicago LOST 109-99 (3-6)
Mar 14th @ Miami ??
The first game was @ New Orleans fairly early in the season. The Spurs were actually down by 17 points at half-time in that game, but came back to not just win, but blow the Hornets out in the 2nd half, outscoring them by 31 points. The Spurs were also losing by 8 points at the half-time of the Jan 12th game @ Milwaukee, but again mounted a comeback in the 2nd half. The game in LA was won on a last second tip-in shot. My point here is that even in their wins against these “top-10 defensive teams at home”, the Spurs have struggled. In their 6 losses, the average margin was -13 points. And now they get to face a #7 defensive home team on this list.
In addition to this ‘angle’ there are a number of other factors that favor the Heat. Speaking of being a defensive juggernaut at home, Miami has allowed 86.5 ppg on 39.6% shooting in their last 2 home games ( LAL and MEM). This team has really picked up its intensity on the defensive end. Spurs, though, have been going in an opposite direction. They’ve allowed their opponent to score 100+ points in their last 3 games. Even though they are 3-0 in that span, allowing Detroit, Sacramento, and Houston to shoot 46% and average 105 ppg against them signifies a slight lack-of-intensity. Will they turn-it-on against the Heat tonight? Perhaps. But how effective will they be at shutting down Miami who will be looking for ‘revenge’ in this one?
Speaking of ‘revenge’, this is a really big ‘revenge’ game for Miami. Only a week and half ago was when a tired Miami team went to San Antonio, to get completely embarrassed by the Spurs. Duncan’s “It’s over” comment to his teammates in the first half, has been replayed all over ESPN that whole weekend and in coverage leading up to the Lakers/Heat game last week. We all know how Miami loves to use the ‘Us vs. the WORLD’ mantra as motivation, and tonight won’t be any different. I mean, they are going up against ‘the best’ team in the NBA that completely dominated them not too long ago. The Spurs shot 56% in that game and 17 for 28 from ‘downtown’ (61%). It’s very unlikely that they will be this ‘hot’ again in this rematch on the road. I expect LeWade and Co. to respond.
I know I’ve discussed Miami’s issues with playing ‘winning teams’ lately (they are 4-9 ATS in the 2nd half of the season, although 2-0 last 2 games), but Spurs have been just as bad. They are only 3-7 ATS against winning teams in their last 10 games, and 1-5 ATS in the last 6. This team is only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games facing a team with a .600+ winning home record, an indication that the bookies have been over-valuing this squad. Last meeting @ San Antonio, the Spurs were -2.5 favorites. The Heat were playing a 2nd game of a b2b after a demoralizing loss to Orlando at home, where Magic came back from being down by 20+ in that one. Now Miami is -4 at home tonight in a ‘revenge’ spot. With a standard 6 point adjustment and discounting for b2b, we can easily see that this line is pretty accurate. We’re getting an accurate line and with the factors favoring the Heat in this one, I expect the outcome to be very different from the first meeting between these 2 squads.
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GL brutha............... which of your picks do you really like to put a big bet today? thanksss
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