2-1 (+13 units) last night (had no business playing the UNDER) but 8-2 overall the last 3 nights. Keeping it rollin - (had a large write up but lost it with the damn website)
Anyway - keys to the game;
Orlando
- More of the same - dominate, dominate, dominate
- Hedo/Lewis own West/Williams
>Hedo/Lewis 109pts in 3-games / West/Williams 86pts in 3
>+23pts for Orlando between these two pairs
- No answer for DHoward
>Z, Varejao, and Wallace can't even touch this guy defensively
>Howard was 24pts/9Reb/ and 14-19 from FT in Game 3 WIN
>Howard was 10pts/18Reb/ and 4-8 from FT in Game 2 LOSS
>Howard was 30pts/13Reb/ and 2-2 from FT in Game 1 WIN
- Bench scoring the difference
>ORL 68pts in 3-games / CLEV 27pts in 3-games (+41 differential in 3-games for Orlando)
>Bench scoring well at home - see this continuing tomorrow
- Fast break points (+16 in 3 Games)
- Orlando 8-0 when holding opponent under 90 (keep this in mind)
- Orlando 15-4 in last 19 HOME games
Cleveland
>Labron can't do it alone - need more team effort
- he's averging 40pts in 3 games but w/o a supporting cast - that's all he'll be doing - is averaging 40+pts
>Dominate the paint (+8 team differential in 3-games)
- for some strange reason the big units of Cleveland dominate the boards but can't take advantage of 2nd chance pts and fast break opportunities
>Contain DHoward or get him in foul trouble
- Are you kidding? Only way is to attack him and get him into foul trouble - but Howard isn't stupid.
>Shut down Lewis/Hedo on the perimeter
- The height of these two at 6'10" tower over West/Williams at 6'3" or less. Too much for these two to handle both 1on1 and on the perimeter.
>Stop Peitrus/Gortat/Johnson
- If flying elbows don't make you nervous - the 3pt abilities by these guys and the offensive mind set of them as well are cause for concern
>Get to the foul line early and often
- Labron is the only one attacking the glass - most are settling for jump shots.
>Hit the 3's (West/Williams have to get it going)
- 20% for Williams and 26% for West in 3-games - they have to find the range or this goose is cooked
Besides everyone on Cleveland tomorrow as no one is expecting Cleveland to go down 3-1, I just can't bring myself to back them. This is the playoffs - not the regular season!!! Orlando was favored by +1.5 in Game 3 and won by 10 despite free throws down the stretch and some really bad calls like the block on Lebron by Howard that caused him to foul out. Double Lebron and force other players to beat you if you're Orlando. Orlando has covered all three games and I just don't see Cleveland winning this game.... Cleveland backers - prepare to be down 3-1.. I'm not writing off the Cavs yet for the series - but it isn't looking good IMO.
PREDICTION: Orlando 97 Cleveland 96
Orlando +2 (-120) (10 units)
- ORL are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Central
- CLE are 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings
- Underdog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings
- Cavaliers are 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings
- Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Orlando
- Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
Orlando pk (-105) 1Q (2 units)
- Orlando outscored Cleveland 24-17 in Game 3 IN ORLANDO
5-pt TEASER (2.2u to win 2u)
- Orlando +6.5
- OVER 182.5
2-Team Parlay (1u to win 2u)
- Orlando +2.5
- OVER 187
GL2U
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Playoff ATS Record:42-21 (66%)(+168 U)
*Moneylines: 0-1 (-1 unit) **(0%)**
*Parlay's: 2-4 (+55 units) **(33%)**
*Teasers: 3-3 (+0 units) **(50%)**