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Cavaliers -7.5

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Posted: #1

2-0 last night. Got lucky in the Toronto game but I'll take it any day of the year. Moving on...


Sixers @ Cavaliers -7.5

Factor: Too good to be true huge dogs


It should be evident by now that I’m not a fan of this Philadelphia team. I laid off on yesterday’s game because I don’t trust Cleveland on the road (e.g. I took the Bobcats at home against earlier in the season). Now that the game shifts in Cleveland, I’m ready to fade the Sixers once again. Simply put, the Cavaliers lost last night by double digits after laying 3-4 points. The line for this game opened at 9 and has now settled at 7.5. A 1.5-point adjustment just because Philly won last night is ridiculous. You know how much Vegas disrespects the Sixers? Despite an 0-3 road record and a worse overall record, they installed the Cavaliers as four-point favorites last night. And now they’re laying eight points at home just because. The oddsmakers don’t release lines out of thin air. They must really believe that this fast start by the Sixers is just a fluke.


This is just also the second road game by Philadelphia this season. A young team that plays uptempo is heavily reliant on the home crowd to energize them. This is also why I believe the Cavs are a much different team at home than on the road so far this season. I’m not a fan of the home-and-home series revenge angle (used that angle when I first started betting) but this is a great spot for the Cavaliers. They’re 1-5 ATS while the Sixers are 4-2 ATS. A 2-4 team who was just got outclassed last night is laying EIGHT BIG POINTS against the 4-2 team that beat them. Take a moment and think about that. The betting public can’t believe the “steal” he’s getting.  Don’t fall for the bait. The Cavaliers are the much better team. Don’t be scared to lay the points. Playing at home and coming off a disappointing loss, I expect them to demolish Philly tonight.

3.6u to win 3.42u

YTD: +13.30 units
 
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Posted: #2
how about portland+1.5 or orlando+6 sir?
 
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Posted: #3
 
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Posted: #4
cavs aren't MUCH better than any team
 
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Posted: #5
Based on what? Their recent play? Their win-loss record? Spare me the trouble dude. Just watch the game later. BOL. 
 
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Posted: #6
How about cle -8.5? 
 
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Posted: #7
As I've said before, taking the worse numbers is not a good long-term practice. I'd recommend to just stay away. 
 
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Posted: #8
based on the fact that Cleveland sucks
 
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Posted: #9
Sixers win outright ...All because of Andrew "CANCER" Bynum
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by itgtbt:

2-0 last night. Got lucky in the Toronto game but I'll take it any day of the year. Moving on...


Sixers @ Cavaliers -7.5

Factor: Too good to be true huge dogs


It should be evident by now that I’m not a fan of this Philadelphia team. The oddsmakers don’t release lines out of thin air. They must really believe that this fast start by the Sixers is just a fluke.


I decided to answer this on your analysis. The problem with your logic is that you keep saying Sixers start is just a fluke. They are supposed to be one of the worst teams in all NBA at the end of season. But we don't bet straight up plays. We play AGAINST THE SPREAD. Finishing with the worst record or one of the worst has absolutely nothing to do with the margin of victory. I'm pretty sure you should know that.
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:


I decided to answer this on your analysis. The problem with your logic is that you keep saying Sixers start is just a fluke. They are supposed to be one of the worst teams in all NBA at the end of season. But we don't bet straight up plays. We play AGAINST THE SPREAD. Finishing with the worst record or one of the worst has absolutely nothing to do with the margin of victory. I'm pretty sure you should know that.

I clicked submit before finishing what I want to say....lol

I want to add that Cavaliers are one of the worst offensive teams in the early season and they have not blown a single team yet. On the other hand, Sixers, while predicted to finish one of the worst teams are getting way disrespected by the oddsmakers. I wish I could have grabbed the +9 road line, but there is no value now. It's not like Sixers are a bad defensive team either. They are 4-2 ATS (which it what matters) and Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS (on a five game ATS losing streak).

GL to your play.

 
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Posted: #12
Sports betting is about picking your spots especially in the NBA. That's why I didn't take the Cavs last night even though I'm a firm non-believer in this Philly start since they were playing on the road (I took the Bobcats against them when they were road favorites). Now that they're playing at home and the Sixers playing only their second road game this season, I'll take my chances. Having gotten the best number possible so far (-7.5), I'll rest at night knowing I gave myself the best chance to win. You win some, you lose some. You just need to win more often that you lose to get ahead.

BOL. 
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:


I clicked submit before finishing what I want to say....lol

I want to add that Cavaliers are one of the worst offensive teams in the early season and they have not blown a single team yet. On the other hand, Sixers, while predicted to finish one of the worst teams are getting way disrespected by the oddsmakers. I wish I could have grabbed the +9 road line, but there is no value now. It's not like Sixers are a bad defensive team either. They are 4-2 ATS (which it what matters) and Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS (on a five game ATS losing streak).

GL to your play.


The problem with what you mentioned is that, those stats/trends you're spouting are already incorporated in the line. It's not like it's a secret that the Cavs are struggling. Or the fact that Philly is covering the spreads at a high rate so far. Trends mean nothing especially those that are based in small sample sizes. Do you think the oddsmakers are not aware of those "facts" you mentioned? Don't be so naive. I strongly believe in the "efficient market theory." While it's main application is in the financial market, you can also apply that theory in sports betting and get ahead. Don't try to beat the market. Go with the market.

BOL
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:


I clicked submit before finishing what I want to say....lol

I want to add that Cavaliers are one of the worst offensive teams in the early season and they have not blown a single team yet. On the other hand, Sixers, while predicted to finish one of the worst teams are getting way disrespected by the oddsmakers. I wish I could have grabbed the +9 road line, but there is no value now. It's not like Sixers are a bad defensive team either. They are 4-2 ATS (which it what matters) and Cavaliers are 1-5 ATS (on a five game ATS losing streak).

GL to your play.



No VALUE??....That word VALUE again

You`re talking up the sixers big time.....What`s the difference between +9 opposed to +8???
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by itgtbt:


The problem with what you mentioned is that, those stats/trends you're spouting are already incorporated in the line. It's not like it's a secret that the Cavs are struggling. Or the fact that Philly is covering the spreads at a high rate so far. Trends mean nothing especially those that are based in small sample sizes. Do you think the oddsmakers are not aware of those "facts" you mentioned? Don't be so naive. I strongly believe in the "efficient market theory." While it's main application is in the financial market, you can also apply that theory in sports betting and get ahead. Don't try to beat the market. Go with the market.

BOL


He`s not making much sense.
 
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Posted: #16
This is the right play and I am big on it. 

ITGTBT mentioned nearly everything you need to know about this play. Given what he said, he also knows the business.

A 40 posts guy beats always a 30k + guy
 
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Posted: #17
Clv 3rd in 4 nights Clv the  same but Clv been otr came home had sex got comfy - advantage Philly . Philly has won the last 6 in this series , means nothing I guess this is a new game . Philly won by double digits last night means they are capable IMO . But hese are the stats that caughtbmenwhen I was looking at this game from a revenge angle . ( I agree with u I don't weigh thisnanglenas heavy either anymore )  points I the paint between these two last night Philly won  48 to 28 . This is a significant stat , Turner, Young, Hadominant Wroten dominated the paint .  Fast break points Philly won 18 - 12 . Michael Carter Williams Sixers best didn't even play well . These stats kept me off this game . Catching 8 Sixers will hav to give up to not cover they haven't all year . Could be the lines makers  hav built to much revenge into the line .  Jus sayin , I'm pulling for u gl .  
 
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Posted: #18
Philly the same not Clv
 
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Posted: #19
The line tells me all I need to know after yesterday's debacle the Cavs should not even be favored here. Vegas does not give out gifts but is looking for all 76er fans to take the points. Cavs it is. BOL.
 
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Posted: #20
I think this might be the case when public is right...There is seriously few reasons to back this indifferent Cavs team at -8,5 spread....I expect tight battle, something like 2-4points win for Cavs, hence Philly +8,5 has logical background.
 
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Posted: #21
interesting.
 
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Posted: #22
excellent analysis.  and your 13-9 ats record is better than most!  this is a tough spot.  i just think the oddsmakers haven't caught up to how horrible cleveland is.  that mike brown runs a horrible offense.  and since mike brown is known for defense, it's going to take time for his players to get up to speed.  the home crowd's a factor.  the game should probably fall close on to the number.  something's wrong with varajoa.  he's not the same player he was before the injury.  alanzo gee should be playing more than earl clarke.  kyrie doesn't make his teamates better.  bynum has no knees.  these are two horrible teams.  the ausie sixer is getting more out of his talent than mike brown.  BUT OVERALL LOVE YOUR INSIGHT.  will make for a great game between to crummy teams.
 
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Posted: #23
I'm on philly 1st H +4.5 GLGL
 
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Posted: #24
13-8 sir not 13-9. You can go back to my earlier posts and tally my picks. Not that a difference of one loss would drastically affect my long term record but I just want to point that one out.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Clearly on the wrong side of this one. You can't win them all. Congrats to the Philly backers. Back at it tomorrow. 
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