Celtics @ Wizards: Game 4!!! A History of Hate and some dental work that matters!

28-28

2017 NBA Playoffs: 9-3

The pick:

Wizards -4.5 over Celtics

We are getting a good side and spread here and I'll tell you why.

1. Thomas' teeth

I can speak to this. I've had my teeth knocked out. I've had the surgeries, the bridges, the endless repairs, the innumerable dentist visits (the sanitized smell of a dentist office is my most hated smell on earth I've been there so many times).

Having this happen to you is not pleasant in the least. It would be better to have a flesh wound and get stitched up. And I'm not a world-class athlete near the top of the NBA in offensive output. I'm saying this as a Joe with a job and a house capping from a PC. The level of intensity on that court, particularly in a VERY physical playoff series (Bad for someone who has had such an injury), is something Thomas will have to deal with in two days...and that's not enough time IMO.

The pain is there. The swelling is there. Every bite you take is measured. Your teeth make up your face. Your face represents you. Change your teeth? Change your face.

This is not a good thing. Because the physical devolves into the psychological and once it become psychological, it far outweighs anything physical.

I can guarantee Thomas is feeling out of sorts right now, especially given what the Celtics revealed tonight:

As a result of a collision that occurred in Game 1 of the Boston Celtics’ Eastern Conference Semifinals series against the Washington Wizards, Isaiah Thomas sustained multiple front teeth injuries including a complete fractured tooth and two other subluxed/shifted teeth that required extensive oral surgery to stabilize. He did not suffer a fractured or broken jaw.

Thomas is currently wearing a four-piece temporary bridge that cracked after being re-injured. This necessitated a replacement at halftime during Game 3 of the series. The spanning bridge is necessary to protect and stabilize the injuries. Members of the Celtics medical staff anticipated the need to replace the temporary bridges, and are prepared at any time to do so. Thomas will receive a permanent bridge at a future date.

That's not a broken jaw but that's not a good progress report. This isn't just a lost tooth Gents. Like he's Mankind smiling on his way from the wrestling ring after just having lost Hell in a Cell to the Undertaker.

And yes, this throbbing pain does linger. And the sensitivity in your mouth lingers. That affects the way you think and move.

And if Thomas dials it back a tick or two or three because he is having second thoughts about how intense he should be driving the hole, because his subconscious is overwhelming him, telling him he'll get hit in the teeth again, the Celtics cannot win.

The line opened at 4.5. It is still 4.5 after this news. I can assure you, after reading what you read above, it should be more. How much more is debatable because he'll be on the court. But it is worth something. And Vegas cannot quantify it to put it in the line or refuses to. Fine, I'll take the Wiz then.

But he was on the court in the second half of  Game 3 and the Wiz destroyed the Celts, Thomas having all of 13 points.

Why are you here? You are looking for an edge. This teeth injury and subsequent recovery is an edge.

"Oh god. Because Scal lost teeth too, now he's using that to cap a game!"

Wrong. What I am telling you is that I can speak to this, the scars are psychological, will affect his on-court performance as it did in the second half of last game, and that is worth betting on.

The dropoff from 53 to 13 the next game was the biggest disparity in points after scoring 50+ in Nba history....That matters. I wonder why that happened. As Thomas goes...so go the Celtics.

2. A History of Hate

The Hate comes from both sides. And it goes back, way back, longer than you think, as the Ringer has detailed below:

Olynyk has a history of playing dirtier than is legal?—?Kevin Love said that Olynyk intentionally injured him in the 2015 playoffs, and Olynyk seemed to try the same move on Robin Lopez in this year’s first round. The screen on Oubre wasn’t dirty?—?honestly, I’m not sure it was even a foul?—?but Olynyk has a reputation, and when you think a silly-haired Canadian man is getting dirty with you, you have to stand up for yourself.

But more importantly, there is long-standing beef here: It began when then–Wizards coach Randy Wittman was accused of cursing out Jae Crowder, but it’s gotten more serious since. Crowder booped John Wall in the nose during a postgame yelling fit, leading to teammates separating the two on the court and police separating them off it. Wall once picked up a flagrant foul on Marcus Smart before the two yelled at each other, then Bradley Beal got in Smart’s face (also Smart once broke Beal’s nose). Otto Porter Jr. said the Celtics are dirty, and the Wizards famously dressed in black for a “funeral” game against the Celtics.

It’s continued in this series, through Isaiah Thomas losing a tooth, Al Horford accidentally injuring Markieff Morris, Morris “accidentally” shoving Horford into some photographers, and Morris and Thomas yelling at each other. After the Kelly-on-Kelly scuffle, Terry Rozier and Brandon Jennings resumed their minor beef with each other until they were ejected in the fourth quarter.

So both teams hate each other so it balances out?

No. The Wizards are home, have the fans vitriol (who are well acquainted with all the above) are down 2-1 and know if they lose this game they have to win 3 of 3 with 2 on the road.

In that spot, with that hate, with that effort to tie it up at home just as you lost 2 away, the advantage goes to the Wizards. I look for Washington to try to thump them again.

3. John Wall

A quick point. He has been sensational: 20/14a 42/8a 20/16a 40/13a and 24/8a in his last five games.

That is as good as it gets from a PG. When you are laying points to a number 1 seed, you need your number 1 guy playing like this. And the Celts haven't had answers to stop him. That should continue.

This is the Rondo injury in reverse happening to the Celtics.

They fed off the Honoring the Deceased angle to the maximum and now, they have been dealt fate's cruel hand in a way with Thomas's injury, a bit of an "earn your keep" message from the cosmos after their get out jail free card Rondo injury. And it is against a MUCH more dangerous and healthy Wizards team.
Not good for Boston. I'll lay all the points.

Will you show up after the game and call it 'nonsense' when it wins?

How about the time after that?

And the time after that?

And the time after that?

Will you have the stones to publicly shame yourself when all the bluster and bravado before the game makes you look like even more of a ne-'er'-do -well after it?

How about and avatar of Jesse Jackson for you if this bet hits?

We already have Big Al. Jesse is next up. Jesse will come. I only need someone as myopic as you to agree to such a bet. Will you?

Appreciate all the above. No other caps for today.

Yes, he bought it online.

We need not bet the series line and here's why:

To win that bet, you will almost certainly have to win a Game 7 in Boston? Why? Boston needs only win one more game in the next 3 to force that Game 7. You'd bet Boston to win one of the next three right?

Yes?

If so then you are taking the Wizards at about +185 on the road in Game 7. Here you are getting +200 IN GAME 4. You are not even at game 7 and you are only getting +15 more than you would if you made the same bet in Game 7!

Conclusion: Even though we have the Wizards to win here and the odds tomorrow should drop to -110 for the series, that's not a good bet given this will likely go to 7. 

I'm glad someone took note of that.

For all the pomp and circumstance about fearing public plays, the most public team in all of professional sports covered OVER 80% of the time!!!

So why does Vegas win in the end? Easy answer. Because people don't stop betting and eventually make bad bets.

The more you bet, the more likely you are to lose more. So hammer the singular bets in good spots with confidence. And I like this play. This singular bet.

Haven't looked into the first quarter bet Crunch but be a little careful with numbers like that.

After sweeping the Pacers, the Cavs were in minus territory in the first, 2nd and 4th quarters believe it or not.

But in the 3rd, they were +38.

So it would be natural to take the points in the first against the Raps?

They are +20 and have covered every first quarter...

which is why I don't like betting quarters.

Thanks Monster.