Chet Holmgren Has A Chance To Become The First White American To Be Drafted No.1 Overall Since 1977

Not even Larry Bird was drafted #1. Bird was the 6th player drafted in 1978. I’m not going to  try to explain this trend because I don’t want to ruffle any feathers. I’m just pointing it out. It is what it it is. I am going to back this 35 year trend and bet that the Magic don’t draft Chet Holmgren first and hope he turns into the next Bill Sharman. 

The price on Jabari has dropped quite a bit, he opened at -450 and is now anywhere between -165 and -185 to be drafted first. I like this bet for the following reasons:

1) The above 35 year-old trend. If the Magic have the balls to go against that trend more power to them. People will lose their heads/jobs if the pick does not work out. 

2) The Magic tried for several years to build a team around a big, white, skilled Center and that didn’t work out too well. Vucevic was eventually shipped to Chicago, and now we expect them to try the same experiment with a guy who is 7’1 190 pounds?! 

3) The center position in the NBA is not nearly as important as it used to be. Yes, there are outliers like Djoker, Ayton, and Embid but for every one of those guys there are 10 failed experiments. And, these big guys are injury prone. James Wiseman anyone? 

4) The Magic simply can’t take chances here, despite the upside/potential Holmgren has. John Hammond needs someone who will compliment the roster the Magic have put together and will have immediate impact on the team. Jabari Smith fits that bill a lot more than Holmgren. 

If the Magic have the balls to go against the trend?

You draft for need, unless there is a generational talent available. If the Magic draft Chet, or if they don't, it will have nothing to do with his race.

@begginerboy

 I agree with you though. Chet has upside but zi don't know if the Magic can afford to gamble.

All I am saying is, having a 7 foot white guy become a bust is gonna raise a lot more eyebrows than say a Wiseman. That’s just truth. Most people would acknowledge that. Remember Darko Milicic, #2 pick. People are still laughing about that one. 

Maybe but just the same, if you take a 7' white guy at #9, and he becomes the god of your franchise, you would've gladly taken that same guy at #1. You would've traded you first round pick for the next 10 years for that guy. The draft is always a gamble.

I think Chet is a different case. Darko was an unheard-of Euro player at #2 when Mellow had just went insane on the road to a NCAA Championship. Nobody even knew who Darko was, so the pick was questioned from the beginning. I think if Chet was 20 pounds heavier, he would be the unquestioned #1 pick. Keane Brown is looked at as maybe the biggest bust ever, he's black. If someone questions the Chet pick, it will be because there are already questions about his undeveloped body at the pro level. Not his race.

I think being a person of color and spending formative years in Boston as tempered you towards always looking at things through the prism if race. Boston will do that to you 

Btw, Wiseman isn't a bust...he's been injured and at memphis, it was eligibility.

If holmgren is a better Shawn Bradley, think 13-16 pts and 7-8 boards and then progresses, he will be very serviceable.

Vucevic 24.5 points, 11.5 rebounds and 4 assists wasn’t serviceable for the Magic but this Sean Bradley clone will be?! 

@begginerboy

 It's 45 years, not 35.

Thanks for the correction. Been hitting it hard on Father’s Day. 

He will be a bust if he goes 1 or 2...he could only dream of having half the professional career Bradley had...being drafted by Orlando would be a horrible spot for his development.

He's a work in progress at best, and to drink the media hyped kool-aid on him is laughable...if he were to slide down and be drafted by a better team with legit pieces around him then maybe he's worth a shot but that's not likely to happen.

However, he probably won't give 2 dungs about playing on a G-League squad for the Magic when he signs that aggregious rookie contact and cashes his first check...that's life changing money for the Aussie Skeletor and the theft on NBA owners continues, but they don't care as their teams are all making money with zero incentive to win...you have to be the king of stupid like the Cavs owner to actually take a loss financially during an NBA season like they did during their title year, but who's really going to cry over a guy like Griffen who shits gold chunks in his morning stool.

I watched enough Chet last year to know he's going to struggle in the NBA once the media is forced to pull both feet out of their shameful mouths.

This is all an attempt to legitimize the Gonzaga program as a new "blue blood" which is also laughable...put them in any power conference and they will consistently reveal themselves as a middle of the pack basketball school.

Well said.  

@packersbackers

 What, from a perspective of his game, makes you feel this way?

Chet won't go any higher than 3 like former Zags turned scrub Adam Morrison.  Sure he has potential but the guy is a tooth pick the dude got bullied around and out muscled by every player on GSU I'm talking by guys like 6'3 now imagine him going up against Giannis or Embiid

Orlando Magic is not taking Chet....They flopped big time on Mo Bamba... They cannot afford to take another project center.....Jabari Parker is probably going #1....Center's are irrelevant nowadays....when will NBA crappy teams learn...Its like drafting a RB in the top 10....Its not a desired position of need in the NFL that is worth drafting that high and the same for NBA Centers.......NBA is now a 3 and D league...Teams will never learn.....When you draft that high you have to hit a HR and get a superstar.

@StumpTownStu

Body frame is weak and will be subjected to physical pounding game after game by men, not boys.

He will be a glaring defensive liability in today's modern NBA and will likely get into foul trouble regularly if he's given the paint down low as his assignment. And if he's going to have a similar role to what Porzingis was given, it'll be like his team will be playing 4 v 5 whenever he's on the court.

The pick n roll game is nice versus bad teams which you can exploit their defenciencies, but this league now has too much talent and there are just a couple truly awful teams every year now, and the bad ones are developing into better ones like Detroit, Atlanta, New Orleans, Minnesota. 

There is absolutely nothing special about his game other than his height and length.

Only time will tell,,,give it 5 years and let's revisit this topic.

His ability to succeed depends heavily on where he gets drafted, and if he's able to land somewhere that best suits his game after his rookie contract expires if he is still relevant at that point in time.

And he could end up being a better version of Andrea Bargnani and have a serviceable career...who really can predict these things?

Holmgren was listed as the current #3 at Caesars Palace.

Chet has huge potential,  but he isn't ready for the NBA. He is making a  mistake entering this years draft as he is probably a few years away from making a difference in the NBA.  Guy needs to add serious weight to his frame to become the player he needs to be to be successful

Should of stayed at Gonzaga another year minumum

@Ferguson_Funk

Spot on FF 

Who knows if he pans out in the NBA ...

You really don't need much bulk/mass these days...It's a super soft league , take a look at Curry or KD .

But we're talking about the center position.  If you look at the top 3 MVP candidates (Embiid, Giannis, Joker) at that position what did they all have in common?  Strength and super athlectism not to mention they are twice the size of Chet

I'm a Pistons fan, and have been since before Darko. There was plenty of talk about Darko at the time, as he was being compared to Dirk (he was supposed to be what Jokic is). But yeah, I'd say plenty of Pistons fans joke about it now. TBF, he did win a championship before everyone else in that draft class haha. Just had to chime in cuz I love seeing any reference to Darko

Could anyone imagine what Chamberlin, Russell, Reed, Shaq, etc would do to these very and I mean very weak players in today's game. 

Good lord they would be good for 50+ points every night. And oh yeah, they did not sit out games for rest or even injuries. Today's NBA is soft and timid. 

For that matter all sports are now soft. Let loose Brashear on the soft NHL. Let loose Ray Nitschke on the NFL. Let loose Pete Rose on MLB. And let loose Moses Malone on the NBA. 

Today's sports are all about protecting the investment, meaning the high paid players. 

I agree with this up to a point but when it comes to winning a title all bets are off. Robert Williams played in pain this year, risking his future health and earnings. KD blew out his achilles for a chance at a title, playing for a team he knew he was going to leave. There are  more examples. Guys are still willing to put it on the line when it matters most. So you gotta give them that.