_______Ct's false alarm monday_______

Question

ytd 34-26yest 1-0&#x2B;10.2uFalse alarm yesterday, I thought my capping was hitting a notorious bad streak.  Not only did I go 1-0 but all 3 of my leans ended up being correct.Today&#x27;s plays;cleveland @ brooklyn UNDER 199 (1.25u, -105)I&#x27;ve been on this train before.  Brooklyn hasn&#x27;t score 100 outside of overtime in 10&#x2B; games.  Cleveland is a good offense, but I dont&#x27; see them putting up more than 105 tonight, if for no other reason than they are resting their stars for the matchup in Toronto tomorrow.  Pace is usually dictated by the home team. utah &#x2B;5 @ sacramento (1.25u, -101)The kings are a different team without Demarcus, namely, a bad team.  Most of their offence and defence is predicated upon Cousins in the lineup and rightly, they have looked very off since he has been down.  Utah hasn&#x27;t looked much better but I am banking on them to play a tight game against a team they know they can beat (won 2 in a row against them).   Utah&#x27;s size is also an issue, obviously. Other games; Dwayne Casey has ONLY been talking about defense since the raptors lost to cleveland.  Expect toronto to come out for D tonight.  Decent under opportunity.******NOTE*****I hate paying juice.  Part of my strategy is to find games that I feel will be well over/under the total or spreads that a point or two doesn&#x27;t matter.  This allows me to sell points and usually play games at &#x2B; money.  You will NEVER see me pay more than -110 and most days I am betting at or around even money.  For example, I could take sac &#x2B;5.5 for -110, or &#x2B;5.0 for -101.  That is almost 9% for a half point.  Think about it. Thoughts/opinions welcome.Good luck,CT

canadiantruth · Answer

ytd 34-26yest 1-0&#x2B;10.2uFalse alarm yesterday, I thought my capping was hitting a notorious bad streak.  Not only did I go 1-0 but all 3 of my leans ended up being correct.Today&#x27;s plays;cleveland @ brooklyn UNDER 199 (1.25u, -105)I&#x27;ve been on this train before.  Brooklyn hasn&#x27;t score 100 outside of overtime in 10&#x2B; games.  Cleveland is a good offense, but I dont&#x27; see them putting up more than 105 tonight, if for no other reason than they are resting their stars for the matchup in Toronto tomorrow.  Pace is usually dictated by the home team. utah &#x2B;5 @ sacramento (1.25u, -101)The kings are a different team without Demarcus, namely, a bad team.  Most of their offence and defence is predicated upon Cousins in the lineup and rightly, they have looked very off since he has been down.  Utah hasn&#x27;t looked much better but I am banking on them to play a tight game against a team they know they can beat (won 2 in a row against them).   Utah&#x27;s size is also an issue, obviously. Other games; Dwayne Casey has ONLY been talking about defense since the raptors lost to cleveland.  Expect toronto to come out for D tonight.  Decent under opportunity.******NOTE*****I hate paying juice.  Part of my strategy is to find games that I feel will be well over/under the total or spreads that a point or two doesn&#x27;t matter.  This allows me to sell points and usually play games at &#x2B; money.  You will NEVER see me pay more than -110 and most days I am betting at or around even money.  For example, I could take sac &#x2B;5.5 for -110, or &#x2B;5.0 for -101.  That is almost 9% for a half point.  Think about it. Thoughts/opinions welcome.Good luck,CT

beardyindian · Answer

CT - You were spot on yesterday. I think the Under in the cavs/nets game is a great play and I'm going to take a closer look at that myself. I was leaning Utah this morning - as you said, with Cousins out the Kings just can't cut it and Utah is arguably the better team.

Thanks for the insight on juice - always helpful to hear it from a seasoned vet like yourself. Do you mind me asking what book you use? My book only allows me to buy points on rare occasions...

BOL as always

zikmund1 · Answer

Thanks for posting, you rock! BOL

canadiantruth · Answer

beardy - I mostly use pinnaclesports because their lines start at -105 and they will let me sell a point or two, always. I also use bet365 because they have CRAZY alternate lines that will let me sell up to 10 points (and great live betting, AND THEY ARE A COVERS SPONSOR). I used to use wagerweb, thegreek and vipsports as well, but they mostly suck.

zikmund1 -

See you all tonight!

tvorog12 · Answer

thanks for your picks, Canadiantruth. I like your way of capping, not quantity but quality  CAVS-BKN U199 seems legit. I also consider GSW -13, the way warriors plays right now, timberwolves shouldn&#x27;t be a problem

canadiantruth · Answer

tvorog12 - Be careful with gstate, they are in a tough spot.  Big emotional win in Chicago 2 nights ago with a litmus test in Houston coming up in 2 nights.  Although, minny has looked soooo bad lately.  I won&#x27;t bet on them again until pecovic is back.Good luck!

tnvols · Answer

Good luck CT.

tvorog12 · Answer

yeah, get it. it will be a small bet. Follow you on CAVS-BKN underGood luck

Rotomania · Answer

Hey CT- no Wizard love tonight?I recall you liking those Home &amp; Home matches where the loser of the first game is playing at home.

beardyindian · Answer

Thanks for the info CT. I&#x27;ll look into it. If they offer referrals, PM me your info so you can get some benefit if i make an account with pinnacle / bet365.

DAB12AC · Answer

Not sure if you saw, but the OU is now 197.  Thanks to you, I got the under at 199.Your comments were spot on and made sense. Even if I lose, I can surely live with it.

MickSpeed17 · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by canadiantruth] tvorog12 - Be careful with gstate, they are in a tough spot.  Big emotional win in Chicago 2 nights ago with a litmus test in Houston coming up in 2 nights.  Although, minny has looked soooo bad lately.  I won&#x27;t bet on them again until pecovic is back.&#xD;&#xA;Good luck!&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]&#xD;&#xA;Excellent obversation. I was leaning GS since they&#x27;ve been on such a tear. But now that you mention it, I remember a GS player (in the CHI post game interview) saying Curry told teammates he really wanted his 1st win in this building. Like you said, they&#x27;ll probably "go through the motions" and do enough to just win SU.

djcbulls23 · Answer

keep up the good work CT , best of luck tonight with your plays

livin2gamble · Answer

with ya on jazz tonight, they have to win somewhere don't they? it will be much tougher to get a w against Sas...
what do you think of Nuggets plus points, since raptors will play tomorrow at cleveland ( look ahead possibly) and phoenix

any way good luck with yor bets, cheers

TsikenBreast · Answer

This. I just dont see the point in taking those hooks or buying points. If you think half a point will cost you,  then youre looking at the wrong game...

canadiantruth · Answer

tnvols - Always glad to see you stop inbeardyindian - nothing for pinny and for bet365, if you decide to sign up, go through covers and give them credit.  dab12ac - THANK YOU!  That&#x27;s the attitude.  No bashing, no hating, make a play based on reasoning and take it win or lose.  That&#x27;s a long term winning attitude.mickspeed17 - They are just going through the motions, what I underestimated is just how bad minny is with all of their injuries.  Gstate may cover that spread with their deep bench...djcbulls - livin2gamble - You used to have an ak47 avatar, true? tsikenbreast - Glad your on the same page with that thought.

DAB12AC · Answer

I got it at 199. Line later moved to 197. Final total? 198.Thanks CT

_______Ct's false alarm monday_______

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