Posted:
#1
I have been carefully following this forum for years without contributing. Now that I am having two winning seasons in a row, I would finally like to put in my 2 cents. Feel free to discuss and disagree with me; that's all part of the learning curve.
CHA vs PHI
MEM vs HOU
OKC vs MIN
TOR vs BKN
Follow my plays throughout the year
Thank you for all the long term players who helped me realize that sports gambling is not a race, but a marathon. Like anything in like, its brick by brick my friends! Don't make a play if you have so much doubt!
YTD: 0-0-0
CHA vs PHI With Philly cooking up some wins and the hornets struggling, its hard to put money on this game to be quite frankly honest with you. Philly's last 3 out of 4 wins have been either 1 or 2 point wins (all sub .500 teams). Even their loss to the Celtics however, was impressive. Looking at Charlotte,their forte; which has been defense, is looking weaker and weaker throughout the season. I expected Kemba to have an even better season than he is doing now. So is PHI better than CHA? They're faring better but I'm afraid match-up wise, CHA will crush PHI. They will win by around 8 - 12 points I'm assuming. Given that PHI has a slight advantage in front court (and I'm talking a very, very slight advantage when including the bench), with the backcourt duo of batum and walker, CHA will dominate the pace and therefore, the game. CHA is superior in almost every way, including turnovers margins, defensive efficency, scoring margins, fastbreak points, and pretty much every other statistical category.
Take CHA -4.5
MEM vs HOUYes, no one expected the rebirth of HOU and James Harden like this. He is incredible! Are they overrated? I actually don't think they are. They are indeed, very good. Memphis on the other hand, is year in and out a solid team. Also known for their defense, they go against an extremely offensive minded team in HOU. When you study the trend of MEM losses, they are horrible against defensive minded teams more often than not. I actually watched the entire game when they played HOU few weeks back and was impressed with their overall team effort. Although James Harden stuffed the stat sheet, he only had 16 points! Tony Allen is EVERY guard's nightmare. Expect Conley and Gasol to have nice games. The only HOU player I'm truly worried about is Ryan Anderson but +7.5 or +8? I'll take the points here.
Take MEM +7.5
OKC vs MINAvoid this game! I know most of you want to take OKC but I have a bad feeling about this game pulling out the Timberwolves way.
TOR vs BKNBrooklyn imo, is the worst team in the NBA. They have nothing going for themselves, not even a fresh rookie class. Expect a blow out of 20+ points, making the -15 spread look too generous. Every TOR position outperformed BKN players in our model. Don't bet the first half since BKN like to hang around but they WILL lose by a blow out at the end of the game. The only two players I like are Lin and Lopez but with Lin out, I cannot possibly see BKN hang around the Raptors. The Raptors, despite their recent losing streak, is an ELITE TOP 5 team.
Take TOR -15
BOL EVERYONE! 
Follow my plays throughout the year
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