Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
151 - 99 @ 60% for +42.1 Units
2010-2011 NBA Playoffs Record:
2 - 2 @ 50% for -0.2 Units
Mon 04/18
UNDER 193.5 IND/CHI
I'm not going to re-write my analysis from game 1 in this series, but I like the UNDER again tonight.
First of all, the Pacers have played the 'best' they could have played in that first game and still a 'flat' Bulls team found a way to win it. How will this team respond mentally? After all, they are the only sub-.500 squad in the playoffs, so what will be their frame-of-mind after going 'all out' like that in game 1 and coming up short?
Second of all, the Pacers shot close to 50% for most of the game (went cold in the last 3 minutes) and scored 99 points, which is 9 points less than what Chicago gives up at home. Here's what Tibs had to say when asked what stood out to him in the first game: "Everything. Every aspect from ball pressure, challenging shots, finishing the defense, getting back, getting set. Fourth-quarter defense was a lot different than the rest of the game." Ahh... 4th quarter defense. The kind of defense which limited the Pacers to 8 for 22, for 36%, and only 20 points in that final frame. The kind of D that this Bulls squad is capable of playing all game long. I expect this team to play much better defensively tonight. They won't allow the Pacers to shoot close to 50% in this one.
Third of all, Indiana shot 55% from the 3PT line, 10 for 18. This is the same Pacers team that shot 35% from the 3PT line during the regular season. Had the Pacers shot their 'season average' from downtown, they would have made about 6 3PT shots. That's a difference of about 12 points. Well, the first game ended at 203 total points. Subtract 12, and you have 191. Hmmm.
Fourth of all, Chicago players met without the coaches after game 1. They talked about playing harder and coming out more focused going forward in the playoffs. This team is not going to take the Pacers lightly tonight, and I expect a high intensity, high energy effort, especially on the defensive end.
Fifth of all, I know I've talked about the Bulls primarily, but you have to believe that the Pacers will make the necessary adjustments in this one as well. The main one will be to somehow contain Rose. Indiana should make an effort to get the ball out of his hands as much as possible, be it by pressuring him in the back-court, or double-teaming him once he crosses mid-court. Or they might consider playing some zone. Either way, Chicago is not a great jump-shooting team, and utilizing some of these strategies, should help 'bleed' the clock a little more, as the Bulls will be forced to reset their offense. No matter what kind of adjustments the Pacers make, it will have to come on the defensive end.
Bottom line is that we have both teams that will come out a little more focused in today's game with a little more intensity, especially on defense. Pacers will do everything possible not to go down 0-2 in the series, while the Bulls want to grab control of the series prior to going on the road. The total moved up from 189 in game 1 to 193.5. That's an increase of 3 buckets. To me that's significant 'value', in a game where I expect both defenses to stand out.
151 - 99 @ 60% for +42.1 Units
2010-2011 NBA Playoffs Record:
2 - 2 @ 50% for -0.2 Units
Mon 04/18
UNDER 193.5 IND/CHI
I'm not going to re-write my analysis from game 1 in this series, but I like the UNDER again tonight.
First of all, the Pacers have played the 'best' they could have played in that first game and still a 'flat' Bulls team found a way to win it. How will this team respond mentally? After all, they are the only sub-.500 squad in the playoffs, so what will be their frame-of-mind after going 'all out' like that in game 1 and coming up short?
Second of all, the Pacers shot close to 50% for most of the game (went cold in the last 3 minutes) and scored 99 points, which is 9 points less than what Chicago gives up at home. Here's what Tibs had to say when asked what stood out to him in the first game: "Everything. Every aspect from ball pressure, challenging shots, finishing the defense, getting back, getting set. Fourth-quarter defense was a lot different than the rest of the game." Ahh... 4th quarter defense. The kind of defense which limited the Pacers to 8 for 22, for 36%, and only 20 points in that final frame. The kind of D that this Bulls squad is capable of playing all game long. I expect this team to play much better defensively tonight. They won't allow the Pacers to shoot close to 50% in this one.
Third of all, Indiana shot 55% from the 3PT line, 10 for 18. This is the same Pacers team that shot 35% from the 3PT line during the regular season. Had the Pacers shot their 'season average' from downtown, they would have made about 6 3PT shots. That's a difference of about 12 points. Well, the first game ended at 203 total points. Subtract 12, and you have 191. Hmmm.
Fourth of all, Chicago players met without the coaches after game 1. They talked about playing harder and coming out more focused going forward in the playoffs. This team is not going to take the Pacers lightly tonight, and I expect a high intensity, high energy effort, especially on the defensive end.
Fifth of all, I know I've talked about the Bulls primarily, but you have to believe that the Pacers will make the necessary adjustments in this one as well. The main one will be to somehow contain Rose. Indiana should make an effort to get the ball out of his hands as much as possible, be it by pressuring him in the back-court, or double-teaming him once he crosses mid-court. Or they might consider playing some zone. Either way, Chicago is not a great jump-shooting team, and utilizing some of these strategies, should help 'bleed' the clock a little more, as the Bulls will be forced to reset their offense. No matter what kind of adjustments the Pacers make, it will have to come on the defensive end.
Bottom line is that we have both teams that will come out a little more focused in today's game with a little more intensity, especially on defense. Pacers will do everything possible not to go down 0-2 in the series, while the Bulls want to grab control of the series prior to going on the road. The total moved up from 189 in game 1 to 193.5. That's an increase of 3 buckets. To me that's significant 'value', in a game where I expect both defenses to stand out.
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
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'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
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