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Den @ OKC Discussion

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by SuperSlapem:

I'm actually liking OkC and leaning over now. Only because it is a b2b and the total has been set higher when the last matchup totaled 214. Looks like the books want us on Den and the Under.


Slapem! thank you heaps for your unbelievably in depth research... your logic seems to be right on the money to go OKC. The decision for me to go under though in my opinion goes on most of the factors you gave in the first dozen posts you gave... I'm scared they'll get stuck in a shoot-out early, and some of the d-league players will have to pick-up the play, who I can't trust yet. Denver, who are riding 12 wins in a row, something they hadn't done in 40 years, seem vulnerable to a blow-out. maybe i'm ignoring the bookies too much... i'm definitely not going OKC/Under, as I could get stuck by a Denver team who knows they have to come out strong early, but I like under.
Just my opinion, following your train of logic (Y)
 
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Posted: #27
oh and also, OKC didn't play as well as they did in the home-stretch of last season... young-team getting bored with the regular season?? look at their past couple of games, namely the ORL one. they might come out apathetic tonight and still score just 100
 
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Posted: #28
Revenge factor+btb denver=Okc blowout?
I think vegas has taken all of this in consideration,and we see the results from the spread,that is set up right in my opinion.I suggest a great fade :)
 
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Posted: #29
@pinkmuse
The reason I don't trust the under is because I think the least percentage of 2team parlay bettors are on OKC and Over. Denver and Over is too easy and the books wont lose that easy. OKC and Under seems to easy considering the b2b situation. Den defense was horrible against Chi, a bottom offense in this league. I believe the books must protect themselves from 2team bettors since the payout is 3 times more. Percentages are still moving so things could change. Don't know if I'm making sense. Its just something I always account for when finalizing my bets.
“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
 
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Posted: #30
@MoreGeezer
Thx. I'm already leaning towards OKC. Its the total I'm trying to figure out.
“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
 
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Posted: #31

We've been looking at the same stats and trends, but from the tone in your writing you just seem to WANT OKC to cover. I love OKC and love watching them play. Here are my reasons why Denver is going to win S/U and/or cover.

DEN plays at the highest pace in the highest altitude in the NBA. Countless DEN alumn have mentioned how "On the road you feel like you can run forever...then you get back home and you cant breath".

DEN is 5-2-1 h2h and on the road average a loss of less than 7 points. They are a different team post all star break.

Good luck, keep up the hard work. Maybe one day we'll be on the same side.

 
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Posted: #32
@TheForbes777

Running and making baskets are two different things last I remember. Second OKC is still a lean and has not been locked in yet, and not because I have doubts either. Thanks for the trend you pointed out but I'm still capping and looking at trends so your statement is a bit out of line. Here's something you may or may not have looked at. Remember we're all just looking at numbers and we all have one common goal. And that's WINNING!

Against Western Conference foes OKC is 8-2 as favorites of 9-9.5. Consider that.

OKC average margin of defeat is 10.4 ppg.

I have more.
“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
 
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Posted: #33
10.4 against the West that is.

Against the West OKC averages 108, 1.3 more than their season average.

They allow 98ppg a couple points higher than their season mark but still under 100.

Denver averages 105ppg against the West. That's one point lower than their season average. And they allow 100 which is around 4 points higher than there season mark. The huge difference here is the b2b situation and how their defense gave up so much to Chi, who averages around 90 ppg.

Starter points favor OKC in Western Conference games as well.

OKC 78.1
Den 67.1

3pt %

OKC 40.3
Den 34.6

The only real significant advantage Denver holds is in bench points but this is a b2b and on the road against arguably the best in the West and I feel OKC will prove that tonight. I do think it will be close until the final 3 minutes and it could go either way but I think OKC is laying this much for a reason, not because I want them to cover but because that's what I'm seeing based on my research.

Bol.
“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
 
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Posted: #34
I don't even think Denver will crack the 105 mark. So I may lay off the total. But I'm still liking OKC.
“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
 
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Posted: #35
can't wait to see how this one pans out
 
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Posted: #36
I think OKC will defend the paint well tonight and force Denver to try and win from the perimeter. Although that's where OKC has their biggest advantage with Westbrook, Martin, Fisher and Durant.

Durant needs to be a better post up player. I know he's a lightweight compared to other forwards in the league but I don't think he uses his speed to his advantage. He needs to find more post moves. Its the one thing Lebron has definitely improved in which is why KD should not be compared to him.
“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
 
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Posted: #37
@pinkmuse
Can't wait myself. OKC is 8-2 vs West as favs 9-9.5. Stat is incredible IMO.

Bol bro.
“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
 
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Posted: #38
i'd lay the chalk . the thunder dropped the last two meetings and are looking to get some wins back as well as taking that streak away  , as for scoring i think the thunder can reach 100 before denver . i think the nuggets will be gassed out after last nights o.t so scoring may be an issue for them .
 
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Posted: #39
I like to looks at the refs ATS statistics that covers posts...

Here are the three that covers have listed w/ stats:

Mike Callahan: 
 - Home team ATS: 20-28-1
 - Home Fav of 5-9.5: 7-14

Marat Kogut:
 - Home team ATS: 12-26-2
 - Home Fav of 5-9.5: 5-9

Leon Wood:
 - Home team ATS: 28-27
 - Home team fav of 5-9.5: 8-7

Since the refs dicate how games go big time in the NBA I think its valuable stuff.  They usually stay pretty consistent too which makes such a big difference in W/L records for some of these guys...teams often flip back and forth ATS (thunder).  That is not the case with Denver who just loves covering the line, also had an ATS loss yesterday.  I see them coming back and getting an ATS win and possibly straight up victory

Denver ML and +9.5
 
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Posted: #40
@MoneyTalks
Thx for your input. I like OKC and plan on locking it in before gametime.

Bol bro.
“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
 
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Posted: #41
@King
thx. Already looked at those refs. Problem is I've tried that strategy many times about 7 years ago and it rarely worked for me. GL.
“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
 
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Posted: #42
One of the best threads ever. No bashing people's opinions. Good info.
 
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Posted: #43
okc is a squad that heavily depends on individual talent (two unstoppable monsters to be specific) and whistles. Scott brooks is a remarkably poor coach who is very fortunate to be coaching arguably two of the best, most aggressive players at their respective positions.
 
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Posted: #44
imagine if he gave max allowable minutes to second unit players like liggins and jackson? Two athletic guards who defend relatively well. Instead, he's probably going to give 20+ minutes to Fisher and 25+ minutes to a useless twat like Perkins.
 
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Posted: #45
I'd rather have ronnie brewer running with the second unit than Fisher if I was wagering on the Thunder tonight and had a say in the roster management of the squad. The dude has zero offensive game, but he hustles, defends well and has solid athleticism and size for his position. You're not going to be at a disadvantage when the Nuggets run multiple switch off screens like you would be with Fish on the floor
 
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Posted: #46
Is Lawson playing tonight?
 
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Posted: #47
game under
 
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Posted: #48
Jford0523
Thx to you and everyone who expressed their opinions.

@popeyoss
I like your thinking.
GL

@DaMeCabeza
Idk. Its too late now.
GL

Thx fellas and Bol.

“A Fool And His Money Are Soon Parted” -Thomas Tusser 1557
 
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Posted: #49
two coaches who can't draw up plays that would be effective even at the high school level and who suck at playing time allotment
 
 
 
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Posted: #50
Bol.
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