Posted:
#1
The Nuggets have always played Indiana well, winning 12 of the last 15 matchups, going 11-4 ATS.
It's a tale of two cities when looking at the offensive/defensive numbers of these squads. The Nugs score 100.8 and give up 101.1, while the Pacers score 90.7 and give up 91.1.
Indiana has played a very favorable schedule as far as opposing offenses go. They have played only 4 teams in the top ten for offensive efficiency, going 1-3 SU. The only win was at the Lakers(79-77), when flu ridden Kobe was the only L.A. player shooting decently.
Conversely, they have played 11 of their 19 games against teams in the bottom ten for ppg scored or FG%.
Their schedule thus far has strongly contributed to their overall stellar defensive numbers, imo.
Tonight, they run into a fast paced, offensively efficient(#5) Denver team that can rebound with them.
I really like the backcourt matchups to favor Denver tonight. Lawson played well against the Hawks until his turnover in the last minute. He and Andre Miller are a steady combo and should outmuscle and outpace Hill and Augustin as they average almost 5 more assists per game between them.
Iguodala has been shooting poorly the last 2 games, but his effort can never be questioned. I expect him to take advantage of a mismatch with Stephenson tonight. Corey Brewer also gives them some instant scoring ability off the bench at the 2 spot. The Pacers are extremely weak at SG, imo.
In the frontcourt, with Faried, McGee, Gallinari and Mozgov, the Nugs have the ability to compete for boards with West, Hibbert, Hansbrough and George. I am not sure of Koufos' status, but he may play tonight. Both teams have excellent rebounders and Denver is #1 in offensive rebounding.
A key will be if Gallinari can get out of his shooting slump and if the Nugs can contain Paul George. Iggy might be assigned to George which would be a good move on Karl's part.
Though the Nugs are not a good defensive team at all, Indiana has only scored more than 100 points only once all season, in regulation play. The Pacers, without West, just don't have the scorers to reach that number consistently.
I like the Nuggets to break their 4 game road losing streak by using their overall offensive diversity, advantages in the backcourt and equal rebounding prowess to eke out a win tonight.
I am on Denver ML(+102) tonight. Good luck with whatever you decide.
0
Hot Forum Topics
