That list isn't particularly convincing, although I'm leaning with the Knicks plus the points myself tonight. You've got 4 home games listed there in which the Celtics (as they're wont to do in the Garden) overlooked an opponent and you've got one unrested road game. On three days rest and facing a divisional foe on a long winning streak, you have to believe that the Celtics won't have any trouble getting themselves sufficiently psyched up to deliver their best effort. Still, that best effort might not be enough to cover the 4 points.
But that's what the "unrested at the Garden" Celtics do - they do enough to win the game but they also blow the cover because they don't care about the cover (obviously).
other leans for tonight ..
Toronto Raptors +5.5 and ML
Don't think I'll play this given my investment in the Knicks, but I do like the Raptors to cover.
Danny Granger Player Prop
Been tracking a Danny Granger prop for a while now and tonight sets up for a play. His injury might scare me away from this plus I don't even know what my book is offering
They've only played 3 games this season on 3+ days rest. They're 3-0 ATS and allowing an average of 85 points per game.
Those three blowout wins on 3 days rest was holding me back from siding with the Knicks +4 tonight, so I looked to see if the Celtics were similarly scary in this situation last season. They weren't. They played six games on 3 or more days of rest (not counting the first game after the All-Star break) and they went 4-2 SU & 2-4 ATS. The season before that, they played only two such games and went 1-1 SU & 0-2 ATS.
here's what I am on ..
New York Knicks +4.5 (20 units to win 18.18)
New York Knicks +170 (5 units to win 8.5)
Danny Granger OVER 20.5 Total Points (26 units to win 24.76)
Since 2008, Danny Granger seems to have a personal mission to revenge a game against an opponent where he failed to score 20 points. In 2008/9, this situtation came up 12 times. He failed to score 20 points and later that season played the same time with a shot at redemption. He went over 20 points 10 times and averaged 26.67 over the 12 games. In 2009/10, this situation came up 9 times. He went over 20 points 7 times and averaged 23.78 over the 9 games. This season it came up once and he scored 26 points.
Over the last three seasons, Granger is 18-4 o/u a lined total of 20 points when he is revenging an opponent who held him to less than 20 points. He is averaging 25.45 in these 22 games.
He is coming off an injury so tread lightly and I expect this situation to resurface as the season moves on.
Laying off the Raptors, but strong lean to them ..
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