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    All Forums | NBA Betting Forum

    Every side today is a coinflip.. why stress over it when Vegas keeps making mistakes on the totals.

    12 Next Last»
    Nessa
    sc_capper74
    Itay2277
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    mokujin1968
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    Nessa
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 1:19 PM ET #1

    We all know how exciting it is to bet a side on a game, we tend to think sides are way more predictable while totals are just coinflips, completely far from true.

    Most of the sharp bettors that have been there in the long run know that betting on totals is the easiest way to make money, not saying you should always play the total instead of a side, but commonly, most notorious loopholes will be found on totals, there's obviously much more margin for error.

    The nba is streaky as hell, common mistakes made by us gamblers, is to bet on teams because 'they're due' and then we lose simply because it keeps on happening, so forget all this blahblah and lets talk recent numbers.

    The milwaukee bucks have basically been abused by everyone in this league, admitting atleast 100 points in 12 of their last 14 contests, so yeah, their defense is pretty terrible, we all know that, what we probably dont know if we haven't been paying attention to the league-worst bucks, is that they're currently on a scoring tear of their own. Yeah, even the worse teams go on streaks like those.

    We can go and say that the pacers have such an awesome defense and that the bucks won't be able to score on them, well.. the bucks just scored a hundred on the pacers a week ago. 

    This bucks team is fast-paced, which of course means more possesions for the indiana pacers, we would think that this indiana team tends to play at a slow pace, but that's not really the case as of late either, word has been spread on interviews that the pacers will be putting on practice some fast-pace elements in their game looking forward to have some mixed style of play later in the playoffs.

    Better lock this one early, as this total goes way over the number and surpasses the 200 mark with ease.

    Indiana Pacers/Milwaukee Bucks 196.5 OVER 5 Units.

    Milwaukee bucks +16 2 Units.

    As always.. good luck whatever you play today.
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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    We all know how exciting it is to bet a side on a game, we tend to think sides are way more predictable while totals are just coinflips, completely far from true.

    Most of the sharp bettors that have been there in the long run know that betting on totals is the easiest way to make money, not saying you should always play the total instead of a side, but commonly, most notorious loopholes will be found on totals, there's obviously much more margin for error.

    The nba is streaky as hell, common mistakes made by us gamblers, is to bet on teams because 'they're due' and then we lose simply because it keeps on happening, so forget all this blahblah and lets talk recent numbers.

    The milwaukee bucks have basically been abused by everyone in this league, admitting atleast 100 points in 12 of their last 14 contests, so yeah, their defense is pretty terrible, we all know that, what we probably dont know if we haven't been paying attention to the league-worst bucks, is that they're currently on a scoring tear of their own. Yeah, even the worse teams go on streaks like those.

    We can go and say that the pacers have such an awesome defense and that the bucks won't be able to score on them, well.. the bucks just scored a hundred on the pacers a week ago. 

    This bucks team is fast-paced, which of course means more possesions for the indiana pacers, we would think that this indiana team tends to play at a slow pace, but that's not really the case as of late either, word has been spread on interviews that the pacers will be putting on practice some fast-pace elements in their game looking forward to have some mixed style of play later in the playoffs.

    Better lock this one early, as this total goes way over the number and surpasses the 200 mark with ease.

    Indiana Pacers/Milwaukee Bucks 196.5 OVER 5 Units.

    Milwaukee bucks +16 2 Units.

    As always.. good luck whatever you play today.
     
    sc_capper74
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 1:46 PM ET #2

    Good Luck today, Vanessa!!
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    Good Luck today, Vanessa!!
     
    Itay2277
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 2:09 PM ET #3

    Such nice write up, ind unpredictable team!
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    Such nice write up, ind unpredictable team!
     
    dimndimn
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 2:38 PM ET #4

    Quote Originally Posted by Nessa:

     

    ..we would think that this indiana team tends to play at a slow pace, but that's not really the case as of late either, word has been spread on interviews that the pacers will be putting on practice some fast-pace elements in their game looking forward to have some mixed style of play later in the playoffs.


    any sources for this info?


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    Quote Originally Posted by Nessa:

     

    ..we would think that this indiana team tends to play at a slow pace, but that's not really the case as of late either, word has been spread on interviews that the pacers will be putting on practice some fast-pace elements in their game looking forward to have some mixed style of play later in the playoffs.


    any sources for this info?


     
    mokujin1968
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 2:51 PM ET #5

    nice write up but milwaukee average 78 pts in their last 3 games in indiana..milwaukee score 100 pts the first time when they play in milwaukee and went over the total of 189.i doubt if milwaukee will score 90 pts..my prediction..indiana 102-milwaukee 85..lean under 197.5..gl..
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    nice write up but milwaukee average 78 pts in their last 3 games in indiana..milwaukee score 100 pts the first time when they play in milwaukee and went over the total of 189.i doubt if milwaukee will score 90 pts..my prediction..indiana 102-milwaukee 85..lean under 197.5..gl..
     
    Nessa
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 3:00 PM ET #6

    Good luck Mokujin, atleast one of us will be having a winner tonight then!
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    Good luck Mokujin, atleast one of us will be having a winner tonight then!
     
    mokujin1968
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 3:06 PM ET #7

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    somarnhoj
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 3:16 PM ET #8

    Pacers play 50% of their full self first half of the game allowing teams like bucks to score and to keep it close I'm really like +9.5 1H good luck all
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    Pacers play 50% of their full self first half of the game allowing teams like bucks to score and to keep it close I'm really like +9.5 1H good luck all
     
    maineky1972
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 3:23 PM ET #9

    Nice write up im on it thanks
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    Nice write up im on it thanks
     
    imadegen
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 5:34 PM ET #10

    smartest write-up of the day right there, better than just putting some trends or garbage like that, im sold on this and tailing.. and if u  really are a chick wow, didnt know a girl who could write about sports that way, anyway that'd be less important as long as u can get some winners
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    smartest write-up of the day right there, better than just putting some trends or garbage like that, im sold on this and tailing.. and if u  really are a chick wow, didnt know a girl who could write about sports that way, anyway that'd be less important as long as u can get some winners
     
    dimndimn
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 5:38 PM ET #11

    Quote Originally Posted by Nessa:

     

    Better lock this one early, as this total goes way over the number and surpasses the 200 mark with ease.

    Indiana Pacers/Milwaukee Bucks 196.5 OVER 5 Units.

    Looks like most places are dealing 195.5 now 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nessa:

     

    Better lock this one early, as this total goes way over the number and surpasses the 200 mark with ease.

    Indiana Pacers/Milwaukee Bucks 196.5 OVER 5 Units.

    Looks like most places are dealing 195.5 now 
     
    Nessa
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 6:00 PM ET #12

    yeah.. the public is slamming the under, according to the vegasinsider website and some others, around 70% of the public is on the under here.. which just makes you like the over better. I'm going my max play of 500 usd on this, Lol, yeah.. I don't lie and say I lay 50000 on a play with monopoly money :p

    you know how the public is sometimes.. they don't think it twice, they're like indiana pacers = good defense,  put a number nearing the 200 mark and you'll have tons of under action. its really that simple..  ask them how that under against the lakers at 207 went for them for those indy pacers under backers.
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    yeah.. the public is slamming the under, according to the vegasinsider website and some others, around 70% of the public is on the under here.. which just makes you like the over better. I'm going my max play of 500 usd on this, Lol, yeah.. I don't lie and say I lay 50000 on a play with monopoly money :p

    you know how the public is sometimes.. they don't think it twice, they're like indiana pacers = good defense,  put a number nearing the 200 mark and you'll have tons of under action. its really that simple..  ask them how that under against the lakers at 207 went for them for those indy pacers under backers.
     
    RememberMyName
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 6:00 PM ET #13

    Quote Originally Posted by mokujin1968:

    nice write up but milwaukee average 78 pts in their last 3 games in indiana..milwaukee score 100 pts the first time when they play in milwaukee and went over the total of 189.i doubt if milwaukee will score 90 pts..my prediction..indiana 102-milwaukee 85..lean under 197.5..gl..

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    Quote Originally Posted by mokujin1968:

    nice write up but milwaukee average 78 pts in their last 3 games in indiana..milwaukee score 100 pts the first time when they play in milwaukee and went over the total of 189.i doubt if milwaukee will score 90 pts..my prediction..indiana 102-milwaukee 85..lean under 197.5..gl..

     
    Nessa
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 6:02 PM ET #14

    I just gotta point out though that this pick is in no way based on a mere fade of the public, I don't make picks based on that.. it's proven that the public wins 50% of the time but loses in the long run due to lack of money management. So basically if you make plays based on a fade of the public it's indeed a coinflip thing.
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    I just gotta point out though that this pick is in no way based on a mere fade of the public, I don't make picks based on that.. it's proven that the public wins 50% of the time but loses in the long run due to lack of money management. So basically if you make plays based on a fade of the public it's indeed a coinflip thing.
     
    timmons187
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 7:05 PM ET #15

    They only scored 90 points in the first half of that game. Pacers rams up a 22 point lead to only lead by 12 at half. If they didn't let the bucks back in in the second half the game stays under. They scored 65 points in the fourth to make it hit 210! That doesn't happen often and I don't see the pacers playing around with them tonight. If they get a big lead they'll keep it blow them out and it'll stay under. If it's a closer game it'll be because pacers have a bad night on offense which should again keep this game under. But BOL my friend. My play is under here
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    They only scored 90 points in the first half of that game. Pacers rams up a 22 point lead to only lead by 12 at half. If they didn't let the bucks back in in the second half the game stays under. They scored 65 points in the fourth to make it hit 210! That doesn't happen often and I don't see the pacers playing around with them tonight. If they get a big lead they'll keep it blow them out and it'll stay under. If it's a closer game it'll be because pacers have a bad night on offense which should again keep this game under. But BOL my friend. My play is under here
     
    timmons187
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 7:07 PM ET #16

    Besides the fact that this game opened at 194.5 and went as high as 197.5. The public was hammering over. Then it went down to 195.5 then back to now 196.5.  Public was on over but now the games all over the map. Line movement in this game is meaningless. 
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    Besides the fact that this game opened at 194.5 and went as high as 197.5. The public was hammering over. Then it went down to 195.5 then back to now 196.5.  Public was on over but now the games all over the map. Line movement in this game is meaningless. 
     
    Blue_Chips
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 7:08 PM ET #17

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    davemsh
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 7:15 PM ET #18

    Best Bet in the NBA is First Half Over's..Then Over's on the game.  
    Mayweather bet 450000 on
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    Best Bet in the NBA is First Half Over's..Then Over's on the game.  
     
    davemsh
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 7:16 PM ET #19

    Play Over's on Weekday's and Under's on Weekends.
    Mayweather bet 450000 on
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    Play Over's on Weekday's and Under's on Weekends.
     
    GeneCam27
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 7:17 PM ET #20

    Takin the pacers 2nd half line no matter what it is..... make money repeat next game again.
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    Takin the pacers 2nd half line no matter what it is..... make money repeat next game again.
     
    Nessa
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 8:07 PM ET #21

    Pretty awesome first half, let's close this out 
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    Pretty awesome first half, let's close this out 
     
    x187soldier
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 9:29 PM ET #22

    that moosejob in the last 15 sec of the game haha
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    that moosejob in the last 15 sec of the game haha
     
    Second2-Numbers
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 9:30 PM ET #23

    Thank You - 
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    Thank You - 
     
    Nessa
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    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 9:45 PM ET #24

    Ure welcome! Oww another 2-0 sweep for mee nicee
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    Ure welcome! Oww another 2-0 sweep for mee nicee
     
     
    Overlander
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    Posts: 327
    Posted: Feb. 27, 2014 - 11:16 PM ET #25

    Quote Originally Posted by timmons187:

    Besides the fact that this game opened at 194.5 and went as high as 197.5. The public was hammering over. Then it went down to 195.5 then back to now 196.5.  Public was on over but now the games all over the map. Line movement in this game is meaningless. 
    Where you saw it opened 194,5? :O

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    Quote Originally Posted by timmons187:

    Besides the fact that this game opened at 194.5 and went as high as 197.5. The public was hammering over. Then it went down to 195.5 then back to now 196.5.  Public was on over but now the games all over the map. Line movement in this game is meaningless. 
    Where you saw it opened 194,5? :O

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