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Falcon Plays for Today

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Posted: #176
Nice job getting back on track with the NHL pick yesterday, best of luck today, thanks. 
 
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Posted: #177
Quote Originally Posted by JP13:

Nice job getting back on track with the NHL pick yesterday, best of luck today, thanks. 

JP13~

Thank you.

I've been playing Falcon's hockey bets hard and they've been good for me.

And what amazes me is that Falcon's betting model gets stronger after the All Star Break.

And Falcon's model is also very strong in MLB, which is a tough, tough sport to bet in ... I know from direct experience, so I really do look forward to Falcon's help through the MLB season to build up my BR for the coming football/basketball/hockey seasons.

In the past on my own I've had my BR hammered by MLB, so maybe for the first time ever, I can take back some of money from the books in the MLB season. That would be a first for me!


 
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Posted: #178
I am following his NHL game, and I won the Penguins one last night. Great picks. Let's get it again.
 
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Posted: #179
Caps 0

Habs 0

10 min left in the game ...
 
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Posted: #180
WinnerMontreal!!!! Great Job MITM!
 
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Posted: #181
Great win! Close game, but a win is a win!
 
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Posted: #182
 
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Posted: #183
Mozart will post the NHL numbers for this evening, as well as the card for tonight.. As ive stated, we play (NHL, NBA and MLB) with computer programs... the win rate should fall between 57.14% and 62.00%, do not get concerned with the daily ups and downs.. i play each selection for 2% of my bankroll.. most times i will recalculate at the start of each new month.. currently we are clicking at 23-11 (+22.30 units) in Jan, after the Montreal win earlier today..

Mozart will be on with todays evening card very soon.. If you have questions, you can direct them to Mozart.. 

Good Luck in your wagers tonight..

MITM (FS)
 
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Posted: #184
What MITM said ...

Habs ...  

Here's the rest of the picks of the day, today, Sat, Jan 31, to wit:

Adding
 
Boston (-130) 2 units NHL
 
Charlotte +6 (2 units) NBA

And here are Falcon's NHL computer numbers for today. I rearranged them into descending order, starting with the highest plus value, ending with the lowest negative value for ease of use.

NHL numbers

Dal 56% +19.55

Bos (63%) +13.90

Chi 54% +11.20

Fla (58%) + 10.00

Phil (62%) +2.50

NYR (68%) -13.50

TB 64% -13.65

Cal 60% -18.80
 
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Posted: #185
Thanks guys for all your work!  
 
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Posted: #186
No problem. The win percentage listed is much more important than the Value number. We want the highest win percentage with a positive value. The negative value numbers should never be played nor should the other side of those. The negative value numbers will get us off the higher priced plays for the most part. 
 
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Posted: #187
How strong is the Boston play??
 
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Posted: #188
Its listed right beside it. 63% chance to win which also means 37% chance to lose. Decent value number on it. I play them all for 2 units  2% of bankroll. 
 
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Posted: #189
I hear you Mozart, I started following this thread a few games before the NHL break...all the hockey and some of the BB ones. Very solid %'s, keep up the great work MITM. 
Already had Char. on the menu tonight, but did add me some of that juicy looking Boston pick.

Good luck gang...


 
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Posted: #190
Thread Record
25-11 (+26.30 units)
69.44% Winners
(-108) avg juice on losses
Each play for 2 units

NHL (14-3)
NBA (11-8)


Mozart should post Sundays card sometime tomorrow. 


MITM (FS)
 
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Posted: #191
Still waiting on a few things, if Falcon has something, either myself or Mozart will post it soon..


MITM (FS)
 
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Posted: #192
Sounds great, way to finish strong yesterday guys...


 
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Posted: #193
It was a nice (late) b-day present to myself!
 
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Posted: #194
Good Morning, Guys,

Here's what MITM/Falcon had to say, along with the numbers for the day, in decending order of values.

NHL numbers

Stl 54% (-9.50)

Van 54% (-9.85)

Pitt 55% (-12.20)

Mont 67% (-18.50)


So we have nothing in the NHL today, back on Monday night.  

As for the NBA, easy pass here as well. Only 2 games on the board and neither is to be excited about. 

Perfect day for me to just pass and have friends over and enjoy the SB

We will be back after them tomorrow.  Good Luck with your SB wagers. 

Falcon

 
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Posted: #195
Hardtimes75~

Happy B-Day to you, man!

Enjoy a few free beers on us. 



 
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Posted: #196
Hi... Thanks for your posting.  I'm confused ... What is more important? The percentages of the plus/minus number or do they mean something combined?
 
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Posted: #197
drewsmooth~      

JP13~    

WarrENDeath~     

spach79~    

Ammoo~    
 
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Posted: #198
Enloy the game Mozart....who are you guys leaning towards on the Big Game today? 



 
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Posted: #199
Booker~

If I understand Falcon's mathematical approach to these games, the numbers with the % are the odds of the respective teams winning; the +/- values reflect the expected returns on those teams, should they win.

Let's take a look at the Habs' values for the day, today.

The Habs are listed at a 67% probability to win, which is pretty good; however, the juice on the Habs is -245 (-260 at my book), which means a return of only around 38% of the unit that you'd be investing onto the Habs.

You'd have to bet on the Habs in that situation 3 times just to make a profit of one whole unit ... that's three times the risk of losing what you'd be risking with the Habs.

So, it's an easy pass, given that it has such low value/return, given the amount of unit(s) risked on that kind of play with high negative numbers.

MITM can correct me with a hockey stick hook if I have it wrong.


 
 
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Posted: #200
Nice job I will be watching from now on. Who do u like for the big game
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