FF - ATS Selective Bets - Week #5

Regular Season Record: 14-17 - 4.7 units

As I already mentioned in my last week's thread I'm on Pistons tonight. Not a fan of Detroit being favorite here but Bucks playing style is awful matchup against Detroit right now. From what i saw since start of the season Bucks haven't got decent jump shooters and they rely on attacking the rim. Knight/MCW trade is the biggest mistake they made last campaign and now they are little overrated by bettors. Middleton and Bayless are the only jump shooters who get enough impact minutes for the home side but Khris is very suspicious since start of the season and it seems he have hard time to learn his new role. Pistons have some good inside defenders like Drummond so Bucks are in trouble with attacking the rim tonight. Detroit are not deep as i wish but Bucks defense don't click so far in the season and even bad material like Pistons bench could score some points here. I'm good with the road side and even will lay the two points.

Detroit Pistons - 2
1.1 units (to win 1)

I will be on Utah too... just wait for better line. Everybody who know some basketball will see the pure edge that Jazz have against poor Durantless Thunder team. Jazz defense is for real and except Westbrook (who can turn to Westbrick tonight) and Kanter... the other offense for OKC is trash against decent defense teams... and believe me Jazz are far from decent... they are monsters in D! Utah win here.

Utah Jazz - 2
1.1 units (to win 1)

Regular Season Record: 14-19 - 6.9 units

Hey funk last few games the radar has been off.  

Your not the only one Funk in a hole right now mate. Im with you but hey, thats why money management is so important. People go on cold streaks and hot streaks. Just gotta take it and go with it..

Tigers2013 Yep i heard of him but never watched in action. Do you have any impressions about him? 

AussieDownUnder Of course. I know that winning streak will come but it's little frustrating to start the season cold... when you are behind with the units it's harder to cap games properly... i don't know why but maybe it's some psychological factor.

However... I will be on Clippers and Pacers today. I know that LAC line is inflated according to their recent performances but my best "bounce back strategy" query point that it's finally time to back Clippers tonight with any spread till higher than - 8

Two for tonight... i'm not changing my leans. Will stick with them.

Indiana Pacers + 3
Los Angeles Clippers - 7


BOL fellas.... i think it's time for winning night after last two weeks disaster

Good luck on your plays.

Nice work today FF... 

Thanks fellas. I really needed night like that

Regular Season Record: 16-19 - 4.9 units

Leans funk?

Leans?

Love when the books are force to put bad line on particular game. The game on my radar is Wizards at Hornets. Charlotte are one of the best home teams in NBA with impressive record 6-1... but except blowout win against Bulls none of the other 5 wins are legit for my understanding... Let see who else they beat at home.

Knicks by 2 points with cancelled winning buzzer beater of Krisaps Porzingis.
Blazers by 12 points... ok that seems little legit but Portland are not the last season's Portland and home win against team that have clearly 2 good guys and bunch of role players is not so impressive.
Nets by 5 points... very tight game and Hornets just pull the win at the final seconds... Brooklyn are bad team and they hang around with Hornets all the game.
Sixers by blowout... everybody did that...
Kings by 5 points in OT with amazing miracle come back...

This team is walking on the razor's edge at home since start of the season and it's question of time when they will fail to win at home. Tonight they face team that was just blowout last night at home.... but hey... I watched the whole game against  Indiana and Wizards play actually well and the only reason for their loss was just the "godlike" shooting of George and Miles... that was stunning really! Many of the shots were well contested but they just fall in the basket... it happened and that was the "unlucky" night for Wizards. So fellas... the time has come... we have the Hornets in awful spot for my understanding... they are just not the team that will continue to win and win... at home against (perfect situation) team that just was blowout on b2b... and that's why books are due to make Charlotte at least 2-3 points favorite... and that's why we have edge to take the points in game where the road team will most likely took the bounce back win. With addition of Batum being questionable... give me:

Washington Wizards + 3

Still not locked the bet will wait if i can catch 3.5 but maybe + 3 will be good enough. Count me as a wizard tonight.

Here are my other leans for tonight:

Kings, Cavaliers, Mavericks and Pistons. Will add one or two to the tonight's card.

Locked:

Cleveland Cavaliers - 2

Still waiting for Wizards bet... the line is moving to my direction. I was hoping that i will catch them on 3.5 and now looks like i could take then on even 4 or 4.5... excellent.

Clev lookin good with female ref Lauren and her bias.

Absolutely Add my second for tonight:

Washington Wizards + 4


Other leans are Kings, Pistons and Mavericks... i could add one of them but still not 100% sure. There aren't games tomorrow so i can afford little loss of discipline with playing three games for tonight.

Toronto will be tough at home! BOL

Without Valanciunas (he is the best rebounder of the team with 9.3 reb per game) Toronto will have hard time to rebound the ball against better overall rebounding team like Cavaliers. After OKC, Cavaliers are the second best rebound team in the rebound differential criteria with + 5.8 per game... yep i have to admit that Toronto are fourth in that category with + 4.9 but right now i see clear edge in Cavs front court in the face of James, Love and Thompson (who is great offensive rebounder too). In previous two seasons the "tough" Raptors team are 10-25-1 ATS at home when they lost the battle under the glass.... two of these games last season were against the Cavs with both losses by 14 and 8.... Cleveland are in good rhythm from the downtown recently with more than 10 triples per game... they are 3rd best three point shooting team in the league so beware of the Cavs three ball tonight! Lowry/DeRozan must have monster game tonight to pull out win against Cavs here. My respect to Carrol defense (i know he is good) but he can't do anything against James.... i saw what Lebron did to him last year's playoffs. I hate to bet on Cleveland team cause most of the lines are inflated but here i had the edge with that - 2 line and you can see that the line already move to - 3.5...

HI,champ do you like OKC tonite ?

Nope.. not interested in that game. If i have to choose side i will go with OKC but hate to lay double digit points so don't count my opinion here as legit.

I will be on Mavericks tonight... just waiting right now to get the double digits line i want. Dallas is one of the teams that always put max effort against Spurs and we often see close games between these two teams. 10 points even on b2b are too much for Dallas. Their good offense can hang around with 7-10 points here. Backdoor cover possibility in San Antonio home games is always an option too. Spurs are 7-0 at home and they avg 15 ppg more than their opponents in these seven games... that's too much even for San Antonio and they will regress soon. Against Texas rivals i think we have good spot to finally fade them on double digits line ATS.

FF, I liked Mavs as well until I saw that Dirk might be rested tonight... 

AussieDownUnder We will wait to see what will happen.