Let me show you how important is rebounding in basketball. Bucks and Blazers met each other early in the season on October 21st. Blazers won battle under the glass against Bucks at road with 42-35 (7 rebound differential). Milwaukee shoot the ball better than Portland by 10.5 FG% (52.5 against 42.0). Bucks won at home by 3 points in neck to neck game. Since 1995 teams that shoot the ball better than their opponents between 8 and 12 % (I used these numbers on purpose to be near to that 10.5% mark.) are 4867-285 (94.5%) SU and 4450-625-77 (87.7%) ATS. These teams outscored their opponents by 13.0 ppg in these many games. So Bucks needed to shoot 10.5 % better than their opponents to squeeze out 3 point win in situation where better shooting team win in almost 95% of the time with double digits. I think you understand my point. Milwaukee are awful rebounding team with -4.3 rpg differential (25th in the league). On the other side Trailblazers are second best in the league with +5.6 rpg differential. They are now at home and they won't cover this game only if they shoot again 10% less than their opponents. I love simple mathematics... I love when sportbooks don't know stuff that I know. Give me
Portland Trailblazers - 3.5
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Let me show you how important is rebounding in basketball. Bucks and Blazers met each other early in the season on October 21st. Blazers won battle under the glass against Bucks at road with 42-35 (7 rebound differential). Milwaukee shoot the ball better than Portland by 10.5 FG% (52.5 against 42.0). Bucks won at home by 3 points in neck to neck game. Since 1995 teams that shoot the ball better than their opponents between 8 and 12 % (I used these numbers on purpose to be near to that 10.5% mark.) are 4867-285 (94.5%) SU and 4450-625-77 (87.7%) ATS. These teams outscored their opponents by 13.0 ppg in these many games. So Bucks needed to shoot 10.5 % better than their opponents to squeeze out 3 point win in situation where better shooting team win in almost 95% of the time with double digits. I think you understand my point. Milwaukee are awful rebounding team with -4.3 rpg differential (25th in the league). On the other side Trailblazers are second best in the league with +5.6 rpg differential. They are now at home and they won't cover this game only if they shoot again 10% less than their opponents. I love simple mathematics... I love when sportbooks don't know stuff that I know. Give me
There is
now way Boston lose two in a row at home against EmbiidlessSixers. They are one of the teams that play
so hard and I love to support such teams. Joel is the the only Sixers edge in
this matchup and he is gone.With resting him tonight Philly clearly show
that they give up here. Team with 12-8 (60% winning rate) record is getting 8-9
pointstonight... it’s tempting really.
But there is a reason for that line. Embiid is the reason Sixers have such good
record so far and anything else is just BS talking. Boston own Sixers numbers at home recently.
They will win with an ease. One of my secret hidden best trends support the
home side also.
Boston Celtics – 8
0
There is
now way Boston lose two in a row at home against EmbiidlessSixers. They are one of the teams that play
so hard and I love to support such teams. Joel is the the only Sixers edge in
this matchup and he is gone.With resting him tonight Philly clearly show
that they give up here. Team with 12-8 (60% winning rate) record is getting 8-9
pointstonight... it’s tempting really.
But there is a reason for that line. Embiid is the reason Sixers have such good
record so far and anything else is just BS talking. Boston own Sixers numbers at home recently.
They will win with an ease. One of my secret hidden best trends support the
home side also.
Boston Celtics – 8
Let me tell you how I feel after 1-1 night with more confident bet losing:
Since 1995 teams that won the rebound battle by exactly 15 rebounds (Blazers grab 50 rebounds last night, Bucks only miserable 35) are 489-133 (78.6%) SU and 454-149-19 (75.3%) ATS. Favorites (like Blazers last night) are 360-39 (90.2%) SU in the same situation. Please tell me why I involved in this historical crap Portland fest. If somebody told me before the game that Trailblazers will grab 15 more rebounds than Milwaukee I would put 10 units on this team with such numbers I just posted. Unbelievable.
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Let me tell you how I feel after 1-1 night with more confident bet losing:
Since 1995 teams that won the rebound battle by exactly 15 rebounds (Blazers grab 50 rebounds last night, Bucks only miserable 35) are 489-133 (78.6%) SU and 454-149-19 (75.3%) ATS. Favorites (like Blazers last night) are 360-39 (90.2%) SU in the same situation. Please tell me why I involved in this historical crap Portland fest. If somebody told me before the game that Trailblazers will grab 15 more rebounds than Milwaukee I would put 10 units on this team with such numbers I just posted. Unbelievable.
This is the 4th or 5th time you’ve lost on this team and your analysis about there rebounding. While I do agree about that stat you are forgetting about one as important. That is turnovers compared to there opponents. Portland is terrible in that dept. therefore you keep getting these losers on them . Just giving you my perspective as a former coach . It’s more than one stat .
0
This is the 4th or 5th time you’ve lost on this team and your analysis about there rebounding. While I do agree about that stat you are forgetting about one as important. That is turnovers compared to there opponents. Portland is terrible in that dept. therefore you keep getting these losers on them . Just giving you my perspective as a former coach . It’s more than one stat .
This is the 4th or 5th time you’ve lost on this team and your analysis about there rebounding. While I do agree about that stat you are forgetting about one as important. That is turnovers compared to there opponents. Portland is terrible in that dept. therefore you keep getting these losers on them . Just giving you my perspective as a former coach . It’s more than one stat .
Yep I see that turnovers are too much but during the years I have noticed that rebounding is the more consistent stat in betting approach. Turnovers are important but they are more of a shaky stat. After all I think you are right about that TO could have more impact on these games that I thought. I will try to research some turnovers and turnovers differential trends to see if I can find some edge and addition to my rebound angles. These rebound angles are money for me season after season. Last season I made some cash from Nuggets.. season before that Thunder were my rebound darling. These Blazers are pain in my behind right now... maybe somehow they broke my angle
0
Quote Originally Posted by broker9:
This is the 4th or 5th time you’ve lost on this team and your analysis about there rebounding. While I do agree about that stat you are forgetting about one as important. That is turnovers compared to there opponents. Portland is terrible in that dept. therefore you keep getting these losers on them . Just giving you my perspective as a former coach . It’s more than one stat .
Yep I see that turnovers are too much but during the years I have noticed that rebounding is the more consistent stat in betting approach. Turnovers are important but they are more of a shaky stat. After all I think you are right about that TO could have more impact on these games that I thought. I will try to research some turnovers and turnovers differential trends to see if I can find some edge and addition to my rebound angles. These rebound angles are money for me season after season. Last season I made some cash from Nuggets.. season before that Thunder were my rebound darling. These Blazers are pain in my behind right now... maybe somehow they broke my angle
It’s really assists to turnovers is the key stat other than at least for me offensive rebounding. You should have a 2/1 ratio in assists to turnovers. Example 25 assists 12 turnovers. Not the other way . Thanks for not getting offended. Just trying to help as a coach .
0
It’s really assists to turnovers is the key stat other than at least for me offensive rebounding. You should have a 2/1 ratio in assists to turnovers. Example 25 assists 12 turnovers. Not the other way . Thanks for not getting offended. Just trying to help as a coach .
Take a look at last night. Mil. 19 assists 10 turnovers.
Portland 17 assists 19 turnovers. Then look at the rebounding. Portland killed them on the glass 50 to 35 . Plus on the offensive side which by far is more important they out rebounded them 10 to 5 . It just shows you how important it is to take care of the ball ??.
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Take a look at last night. Mil. 19 assists 10 turnovers.
Portland 17 assists 19 turnovers. Then look at the rebounding. Portland killed them on the glass 50 to 35 . Plus on the offensive side which by far is more important they out rebounded them 10 to 5 . It just shows you how important it is to take care of the ball ??.
It’s really assists to turnovers
is the key stat other than at least for me offensive rebounding. You
should have a 2/1 ratio in assists to turnovers. Example 25 assists 12
turnovers. Not the other way . Thanks for not getting offended. Just
trying to help as a coach .
But it's really hard to
predict which team will have 2/1 ratio in A/T. That's the reason I think
it's more easier to predict which team will grab more rebounds which
will eventually lead to win and cover if the particular team shoot well
and make less TOs. I know A/T ratio is crucial for winning basketball
games but in gambling it's different story.
Favorites which avg 2/1 (AST/TO) ratio in the season since 1995 are 1422-1349-60 (51.3%) Underdogs are 540-648-24 (45.5%)
I
can start from here but eventually I will start fading such good (A/T
ratio) teams cause the sportbooks will overrestimate them and will give
us bad lines for such teams.
Here is the proof to my words. I
checked last season games of the teams with 2/1-A/T ratio. I checked
only the second half of the regular season (41 games stretch). I checked
only these games on purpose. I want to eliminate fluke 2/1 ratio teams
from the early games. I think after half season we have established 2/1
ratio teams in which we can trust. Here are the ATS results:
I'm sure somehow A/T could be predict and will try to figure out how to do this. Thanks.
0
Quote Originally Posted by broker9:
It’s really assists to turnovers
is the key stat other than at least for me offensive rebounding. You
should have a 2/1 ratio in assists to turnovers. Example 25 assists 12
turnovers. Not the other way . Thanks for not getting offended. Just
trying to help as a coach .
But it's really hard to
predict which team will have 2/1 ratio in A/T. That's the reason I think
it's more easier to predict which team will grab more rebounds which
will eventually lead to win and cover if the particular team shoot well
and make less TOs. I know A/T ratio is crucial for winning basketball
games but in gambling it's different story.
Favorites which avg 2/1 (AST/TO) ratio in the season since 1995 are 1422-1349-60 (51.3%) Underdogs are 540-648-24 (45.5%)
I
can start from here but eventually I will start fading such good (A/T
ratio) teams cause the sportbooks will overrestimate them and will give
us bad lines for such teams.
Here is the proof to my words. I
checked last season games of the teams with 2/1-A/T ratio. I checked
only the second half of the regular season (41 games stretch). I checked
only these games on purpose. I want to eliminate fluke 2/1 ratio teams
from the early games. I think after half season we have established 2/1
ratio teams in which we can trust. Here are the ATS results:
Funk are they games where the team had a 2/1 ratio in the actual game? What about t teams that average 2/1 in 1h season and then how they perform ats in the 2h of season or playoffs
0
Funk are they games where the team had a 2/1 ratio in the actual game? What about t teams that average 2/1 in 1h season and then how they perform ats in the 2h of season or playoffs
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