First Attempt at an NBA Point Spread Model

BUMP

@sheeklouch

 You're the most underrated member of the Lox.

@StumpTownStu

 Only because the other two members are certified goats. Properly rated. 

47-28-1

sixers -0.2484
heat -11.1635
hawks -6.63
thunder -10.56
nets -1.189
mavs -15.81
jazz -0.33
nuggets -15.9
wolves -21.09
grizzlies -2.91

No link today I'm on mobile. 

51-34-1

mavs -6.5737

raptors -3.58

knicks -6.03

celtics -6.8

bulls -3.75

wolves -17.21

lakers -7.7

cavs -4.6

52-35-1

Very little time to post lately. Keeping up with the tracking. Good luck

knicks -12.24

bucks -0.47

celtics -8.55

sixers -4.4

kings -9.69

pistons -1.86

nuggets -12.3

magic -5.6

lakers -7.13

suns -3.9

rockets-3.35

63-43-1

knicks -14.57
wolves -4.41
heat -10.8
bucks -9.39
grizzlies -8.6
thunder -20.93

68-44-1

nets -8.28
raptors -3.4
pacers -12.8
cavs -0.5
kings -15.3
suns -1.9
celtics -19.13
thunder -28
rockets -1.6

 Summary

73-48-1

nuggets-10.43
celtics -25.42
bucks -24.9
knicks -8.9
clippers -11.18
kings -14.5
heat -4.4
rockets -8.26

77-52-1

magic -0.06
cavs -5.2
pacers -7.3
suns -29.8
jazz -1.53

Sheek, can you explain these numbers please. Cavs -5.2 does that mean your system shows them as a 5.2 point favorite? Or the spread is off by 5.2 points? Thanks

Does anyone know what these lines mean 

@RCDirect

 You have it correct. It's basically saying the Cavs should win by 5.2 pts if both teams perform to their exact seasonal averages. Should be taken as a guideline. As for the running record, I am basically tracking the record if I were to have bet the side that my system suggests against the Vegas spread.  For the Cavs game, I have -5.2 so I would take Cavs +7.5 tonight. 

@sheeklouch

 Thank you, I appreciate the share

 Nice work 

80-54-1

Hornets -4.5

Magic +3.5*

Bucks +5.5

Cavs +2.5*

Raptors +2.5

Nets +3.5*

Rockets -5.5*

Sixers +8

Pelicans +1.5*

Clippers -7.5

Thunder -6.5*

Jazz -3.5

Suns -2.5*

Lakers +2.5*

@sheeklouch

What are the asterisks for?

I figured out the win percentages of your model based on how many points off the model is vs the Vegas spread:

Between 1-4.99 points - .583%

Between 5-9.99 - .632%

Double digits - .563%

When the model has the other team favored vs the what the spread has - .682%

@jacksup

 No offense but I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about LOL. 

As for the asterisks, those are games that I'm going to be watching closely and potentially betting myself.

@jacksup

 Ohhhhh. I understand now. My fault. I thought you were trying to guess what the formula is in some way. That's my fault. 

I stopped calculating the differential because I tweaked the formula a few times and I haven't fully committed to one or the other as of yet I've just been tracking both.

Sheek,  been following you a long time.  Thank you.

any chance you can put numbers in the previous format?   

I like the numbers that you used previously to today.

thank you

@Swavings

 Yes I can. One sec. I was trying to make it easier for people lol.

hornets -7.3

Magic -11.6

bucks -12.5

cavs -2.2

pacers -5.9

hawks -0.24

rockets -8.1

sixers -0.5

pelicans -5.7

clippers -16.6

thunder -22.3

jazz -16.8

suns -8.5

lakers -17.0

@sheeklouch

 Thank you!  I appreciate you

@sheeklouch

 Thanks Sheeklouch!

@sheeklouch

 Thanks for everything. Love it!