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Friday 1/22 - Picks & Syndicate Report

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Below are tomorrow's projected lines based off power ratings used by many oddsmakers. Keep in mind, these are the true-lines. Lines are then adjusted by books to force money to one side, or attract money to the 'wrong-side' by inflating lines. Keep in mind, these projected 'true-lines'. These are a fantastic base point and very accurate numbers to help in picking your own games too. I will be adding further information soon in regards to how much key players should be worth to the point spread so you don't over-react or get carried away with injury news! Here we go:

851 Charlotte Hornets
852 Orlando Magic (-1)

853 Utah Jazz (-4)
854 Brooklyn Nets

855 Chicago Bulls
856 Boston Celtics (-1)

857 L.A. Clippers (-3)
858 New York Knicks
Note: Griffin (OUT)

859 Milwaukee Bucks
860 Houston Rockets (-5)

861 Miami Heat
862 Toronto Raptors (-7.5)

863 Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)
864 Dallas Mavericks

865 Indiana Pacers
866 Golden State Warriors (-11.5)

867 San Antonio Spurs (-15.5)
868 L.A. Lakers
Note: Be careful with this game as Spurs may rest key players after Suns game tonight. May present value on Lakers before news is available if you like them already in this spot.
 
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Posted: #2
Of course there are many more injuries. Having 'Griffin posted as OUT' here and nothing else is a mistake.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #3
Thank you, thats cool of you.
 
Captain
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Posted: #4
Thanks. :)
 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
No problem. Will be adding more information to this thread tomorrow when we see what true sharp $$ shows up.
 
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Posted: #6
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
Good call on thursday game , I won back what i lost on weds. Thx so much
 
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Posted: #8
re: Bulls & Celtics, Noah's out (despite their better record in his absence, he's worth a solid ~1.5 pts). 

Additionally, Bulls fit a fairly compelling situation. After getting absolutely thrashed by the Warriors, they head to Boston, with a visit to The Q against LBJ & company on deck the following day. While not as strong as the classic sandwich game, it's possible they'll come out "flat".

also of note is Dwight Howard's absence in the Houston game.
 
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Posted: #9
I think the Bulls come out flat indeed. I think it's hard to get up after a 40 point home spanking with the Cavs on deck the next day.
Boston coming home after two close road losses should be game
The line is -3.5 at bookmaker as the add 2.5 points to the above "true line" trying to draw money to the Bulls. 
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by DrJohn3719:

re: Bulls & Celtics, Noah's out (despite their better record in his absence, he's worth a solid ~1.5 pts). 

Additionally, Bulls fit a fairly compelling situation. After getting absolutely thrashed by the Warriors, they head to Boston, with a visit to The Q against LBJ & company on deck the following day. While not as strong as the classic sandwich game, it's possible they'll come out "flat".

also of note is Dwight Howard's absence in the Houston game.

Noah isn't worth jack imo. He is a miss fit in Hoiberg's system, was better suited in Thibb's. The Bulls are 9-3 w/ out him in the lineup.
 
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Posted: #11
i dont know if Pop will rest his players since LA and kawhi only played 22 mins last night. i dont trust randle and russell. 
 
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Posted: #12
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Liosha:



Hey syndicate where do you get these power ratings from?

Regards

I get these ratings from a few sources oddsmakers at a few major sports books use. I know the data to use due to my previous work there. These are the same as what are used to set the line and then adjusted accordingly. 
 
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Posted: #14
Selection #1

#853 Utah Jazz -5.5 -110 (1u)

Some early highly respected confirmed sharp movement on the Utah Jazz in this spot. The line opened up as -4, but didn't last long and was blasted to 5/5.5. There was also some set up action on Utah once the line reached 5, and was brought down to 4.5 for a few moments before being blasted once more. 

I understand the movement somewhat here as the Nets have been one of the worst teams in 2016. 2-9 SU and 2-8-1 ATS. Head to Head Utah has controlled the matchup winning 10 out of the last 13 meetings SU and ATS.

Definitely seen by sharp groups alike as a bounce back spot for The Jazz. As far as the line, I see this rising even more the later the day moves on, with some potential set ups along the way. If you plan on tailing I recommend locking in the -5.5 now. Sure, we never truly know where the line is going to go, but in my experience this is the best number we can lock in.

Current Ticket %:
Utah 60%
Brooklyn 40%

Current Money %:
Utah 90%
Brooklyn 10%

I expect the $ amount to even out considerably throughout the day. This amount of money early is generally a clear indication of other sharp groups taking a position also.
 
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Posted: #15
Here are the official updated rankings that include multiple factors for todays games and will not vary:

851 Charlotte Hornets
852 Orlando Magic (-1)

853 Utah Jazz (-5)
854 Brooklyn Nets

855 Chicago Bulls
856 Boston Celtics (-3.5)

857 L.A. Clippers (-3.5)
858 New York Knicks

859 Milwaukee Bucks
860 Houston Rockets (-5)

861 Miami Heat
862 Toronto Raptors (-9)

863 Oklahoma City Thunder (-5)
864 Dallas Mavericks

865 Indiana Pacers
866 Golden State Warriors (-10)

867 San Antonio Spurs (-15.5)
868 L.A. Lakers
 
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Posted: #16
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:


Noah isn't worth jack imo. He is a miss fit in Hoiberg's system, was better suited in Thibb's. The Bulls are 9-3 w/ out him in the lineup.

Not disputing this but he is a rim protector.

As far as the line, this one may end up closing at 3.5. Went as high as 5 with the news that Jimmy Butler might have sat with an illness.

All in all, I think this is a strong spot for the Celtics. Personally I locked my bet in at 3.
 
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Posted: #18
also, syndicate, any thoughts on the Clippers Knicks game?

The public is going to be all over the Clippers in this one. Yet, it appears as though there has already been some nibbling by sharps on the Knicks.

However, your power rankings might suggest that oddsmakers are shading the line in favor of the Clippers.
 
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Posted: #19
Wait if you're line had Thunder -1.5 vs Mavs, and the line now is -6, is the value with the mavs at +6?
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by nahlij:

Wait if you're line had Thunder -1.5 vs Mavs, and the line now is -6, is the value with the mavs at +6?

undoubtedly contingent on whether Dirk is out or not
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by Ribeye:

Good call on thursday game , I won back what i lost on weds. Thx so much

Absolutely no problem. It's what I am here to help do! Books stiffed me, so I'll stiff them.
 
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Posted: #22
If dirk is or not the play is still Dallas at home. They play well at home and are hard to beat OKC tends to stutter on these games and gives up points in the 4th.
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by DrJohn3719:

also, syndicate, any thoughts on the Clippers Knicks game?

The public is going to be all over the Clippers in this one. Yet, it appears as though there has already been some nibbling by sharps on the Knicks.

However, your power rankings might suggest that oddsmakers are shading the line in favor of the Clippers.

Currently there is 85% tickets being written for the Clippers, and books are taking 90% of the overall $$$ on the same side, forcing them to adjust as they are currently very exposed here. The line does not take in to account Blake Griffin who is currently worth 1.5 points. So the line is fairly accurate. There has been some small sharp action on the Knicks +2 and some dummying the line back and forth for other waves to try and get down on the same number. Very small however.


 
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Captain
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Posted: #25
We see the rankings versus lines. Sooo, what are your plays SA?


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