Froggy's 4-leg Martingale (4-0)

I have nearly perfected a martingale system with incredible results. Do not think that all martingales are the same because they are not. This is not an endless legged martingale where you need to take out a second mortgage on your home for the final leg. Read on if you're still interested. If you cringe at the mere thought of doubling your wager, simply move on.

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So, here is the basis of the model. The wagers are 4-legged because the system wagers on NBA quarters. The model wins 1-unit per match, and risks (~20 units) if we lose all 4 legs. Risk according to your bankroll... that being said, the record on this system stands at 83 wins - 1 loss (beginning 2/6/2021) with a +63 units p&l.

The system looks back at the last 14-days for each team and calculates the average quarters won and the percentage of at least 1 quarter being won. It also considers fatigue by taking into account how many games the team has played in the last 4 days, and whether they're playing a back-to-back match up.

When calculating your wagers, keep a good record going. The following is just an example when odds for the wager are -110 (American Odds) or 1.90 (Decimal Odds).

The way to calculate is using this formula:

Select 'To Win'. (NOT 'To Risk')

<wagers placed on the match so far> + <1 unit if won>

For example:

If odds are -110, the first quarter wager would be 1.1 units. 

If we lost the 1Q, the next quarter would be <(wagers placed on the match so far) : 1.1> + <unit if won : 1> = 2.1 (TO WIN)

continued to 4Q, if it gets there.

I have taken a super conservative approach to this model and want to ensure the highest probability of success.

I'm done gambling.

I'm here to make money.

Record on covers: 4-0

Unofficial Record: 87-1

5/14/2021 picks

Dallas Mavericks

New Orleans Pelicans - (I am taking this 1Q +0.5 right now. This line is going to move like crazy today if my predictions are correct that GSW will rest a good number of their starters)

Washington Wizards - some books have them at -2 and -2.5 ... get it now before it goes any higher

So are we betting the first game and if we lose, we double up on the 2nd game is what you saying?

I'm removing New Orleans Pelicans from the pick.

Official pick remains as:

Dallas Mavericks

Washington Wizards

The model is picking Golden State, and I'm going out on a whim based on the situation and things I've read and assessed, but I'm seeing a lot of different mixed feelings about this game. So, instead of risking it, I'm removing the play altogether. If you've already placed the wager... you're in the same boat as me, and I remain steadfast in my own predictions, but I don't want you guys to unnecessarily take a gamble on a personal hunch.

If you win, it's over. If you lose, you place double the wager on the next quarter. The instructions are on the first post.

1Q - wager 1 unit to win. If odds are -110, then the 'To Win' wager would be 1.1 units

if 1Q loses,

2Q - wager 1.1 units (original wager) + 1 unit  = 2.1 units. If odds are -110, wager would be '2.21 units'

if 2Q loses,

3Q - wager 1.1 units (original wager) + 2.21 units (2nd wager) + 1 units = 4.31 units. If odds are -110, wager would be '4.73 units'

if 3Q loses,

4Q - wager 1.1 + 2.21 + 4.73 + 1 = 9.04 units, if odds are -110, wager would be 9.90

At the end, you will have 1 unit won.

Dallas Mavericks

Washington Wizards

adding Philadelphia 76ers

thanks

so these are all first quarter to be correct?

Yes, the initial bet is for 1Q. If 1Q loses, then remaining bests for the match are all live bets.

@Froggy80

 if we took pelicans first quarter spread, should we hedge?

@LegendKiller3

If the injury report comes out that GSW is sitting out their starters, I would keep the wager. If Curry and Wiggins are playing, I would buy out of the wager.

@Froggy80

 thank you my man. 

Actually, if they're playing, I would flip the wager (bet double on 1Q GSW, so that you nullify the NOP wager and take GSW instead). I wanted to take GSW, but the situation called for a different approach to today's game. I will be doing the same.

Not being a naysayer, but in post 6 in this thread, it’s basically, lose, and double next quarter until it wins. Yes, odds are good to win one,but if all 4 quarters are lost, it’s a huge loss, and some of us, even at $10 a unit, may not want to risk almost $100 to win $10(if I’m reading system correctly)

@Timealker

Absolutely correct. I have laid out all of the possible pitfalls so that anyone interested knows exactly what they're getting into.

"...Read on if you're still interested. If you cringe at the mere thought of doubling your wager, simply move on."

"The model wins 1-unit per match, and risks (~20 units) if we lose all 4 legs. Risk according to your bankroll"

It's not as if you're discovering a secret here. With that being said, I had exactly 1 loss this season and 87 wins.

Stats on quarters:

~85% wins within the 1st and 2nd quarters

~8% wins in the 3Q

~6% wins in the 4Q

1% (exactly 1 game - 2/12 Sacramento vs Orlando where Sacramento was swept all 4 quarters)

Memphis is sitting out a ton of players today. Golden State will do exactly the same thing, I presume.

Dallas Mavericks

Washington Wizards

Philadelphia 76ers

adding back New Orleans Pelicans

Dallas Mavericks

Washington Wizards

Philadelphia 76ers

New Orleans Pelicans

adding Sacramento Kings

Very interesting, just started following and will continue to follow moving forward. Just so that we're on the same page for todays slate:

Mavs -5

Wiz -2.5

Phil -5

NO +1

Sac +1

Correct?

They look similar. You have better odds on NOP, and I have better odds on 76ers and Mavs

1st QUARTER LINE 511 Q1 Kings +1 (-110)

1st QUARTER LINE 508 Q1 76ers -4½ (-110)

1st QUARTER LINE 502 Q1 Wizards -2½ (-110)

1st QUARTER LINE 514 Q1 Mavericks -4½ (-110)

1st QUARTER LINE 515 Q1 Pelicans +½ (-110)

Yesterday, I shared a limited list because I was hesitant about sharing a long list, but this was mine yesterday which included the 2 I shared. All games  cashed.

Atlanta
Portland
Sacramento
Chicago
New York
Denver

So I have decided to share my full list. We have quite a few games tonight, and risk is obviously high because of it, but that's the nature of the game right before playoffs... BOL to everyone tonight.

I am bolding my top 2 picks in case you guys are looking to play it safe:

Dallas Mavericks

Washington Wizards

Philadelphia 76ers

New Orleans Pelicans

Sacramento Kings

Let’s cash it tonight 

First game first double down, let’s hope this works. I currently have wiz 2nd Q at -3.5 is that what we’re going on now? 

wizs kids -3.5 2nd 

westbrick