Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NBA Record:
151 - 99 @ 60% for +42.1 Units
2010-2011 NBA Playoffs Record:
30 - 23@ 57% for +4.7 Units
Thur 06/09
UNDER 185 MIA/DAL
I'm not going to provide a write-up for this one. Instead I'm just going to copy and paste part of the write-up I did for my 2010-2011 NBA Finals Preview guide. Good luck fellas!
https://spaces.covers.com/blog/bodio/NBA ... EVIEW.html
It’s no surprise that both teams are top 10 in both Offensive AND Defensive ratings. Obviously Miami’s ratings are a tad better: O-rating: #3 Miami to #8 Dallas / D-rating: #5 Miami to / #7 Dallas.
Breaking these teams down further, one can see that both are very good at shooting the ball offensively, with excellent EFG% ratings. (#3 Mavs / #4 Heat). Both are also excellent at defending the shot. (#4 EFG% defensive Heat / #9 EFG% defensive Mavs). Neither team is very good at getting to the offensive boards (#19 Miami / #26 Dallas), nor at protecting the ball while on offense (#17 Miami / #21 Dallas). Miami is a much better team at getting to the FT line than Dallas though (#3 Miami / #18 Dallas), but the fact that Mavs are #3 at FT/FGA defensively should neutralize that a bit. Neither team relies on turnovers much on the defensive end, preferring to play sound D by quick rotations to open shooters and excellent one-on-one execution. What is important to note, is that though neither team excels at offensive rebounding, both are very good at protecting the boards on the defensive end. (#4 Miami / #7 Dallas).
It’s very interesting to see that based on this statistical breakdown, both Miami and Dallas are very similar, and quite frankly, resemble mirror-images of one another in most of these categories. One note though, Miami is just a tad better in most of them, additionally evidenced by better overall offensive and defensive ratings.
So what does all this reveal? Well, I would look to take the UNDER, when these 2 teams face off. Both are excellent defending the ball, both are turnover-prone on offense, neither are adept on offensive ‘glass’, and both are very good at rebounding the ball on the defensive end. At the same time, Dallas is not the type of a team to send their opponent to the FT line often, especially since they’ll be playing plenty of ‘zone’ during this series. All these factors, favor a lower-scoring series. In addition, keep in mind that Miami was #20 in PACE in this season, while Dallas was #18.
151 - 99 @ 60% for +42.1 Units
2010-2011 NBA Playoffs Record:
30 - 23@ 57% for +4.7 Units
Thur 06/09
UNDER 185 MIA/DAL
I'm not going to provide a write-up for this one. Instead I'm just going to copy and paste part of the write-up I did for my 2010-2011 NBA Finals Preview guide. Good luck fellas!
https://spaces.covers.com/blog/bodio/NBA ... EVIEW.html
It’s no surprise that both teams are top 10 in both Offensive AND Defensive ratings. Obviously Miami’s ratings are a tad better: O-rating: #3 Miami to #8 Dallas / D-rating: #5 Miami to / #7 Dallas.
Breaking these teams down further, one can see that both are very good at shooting the ball offensively, with excellent EFG% ratings. (#3 Mavs / #4 Heat). Both are also excellent at defending the shot. (#4 EFG% defensive Heat / #9 EFG% defensive Mavs). Neither team is very good at getting to the offensive boards (#19 Miami / #26 Dallas), nor at protecting the ball while on offense (#17 Miami / #21 Dallas). Miami is a much better team at getting to the FT line than Dallas though (#3 Miami / #18 Dallas), but the fact that Mavs are #3 at FT/FGA defensively should neutralize that a bit. Neither team relies on turnovers much on the defensive end, preferring to play sound D by quick rotations to open shooters and excellent one-on-one execution. What is important to note, is that though neither team excels at offensive rebounding, both are very good at protecting the boards on the defensive end. (#4 Miami / #7 Dallas).
It’s very interesting to see that based on this statistical breakdown, both Miami and Dallas are very similar, and quite frankly, resemble mirror-images of one another in most of these categories. One note though, Miami is just a tad better in most of them, additionally evidenced by better overall offensive and defensive ratings.
So what does all this reveal? Well, I would look to take the UNDER, when these 2 teams face off. Both are excellent defending the ball, both are turnover-prone on offense, neither are adept on offensive ‘glass’, and both are very good at rebounding the ball on the defensive end. At the same time, Dallas is not the type of a team to send their opponent to the FT line often, especially since they’ll be playing plenty of ‘zone’ during this series. All these factors, favor a lower-scoring series. In addition, keep in mind that Miami was #20 in PACE in this season, while Dallas was #18.
_________________
'10 MLBP: 20 - 8 @ 71% for +$13,130
'10 NFL: 58-44 @ 57% for +$9,600
'10 NFLP: 8-2 @ 80% for +$5,800
'10 CFB: 55-54 @ 51% for -$4,400
'10 CFBP: 4-4 @ 50% for -$400
'10 CBB: 39-18 @ 68% for +$19,200
'10 CBBP: 16-6 @ 73% for +$9,400
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'TOTAL: 200-136 @ 60% for +$52,330
"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
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