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Funk's NBA bets - 2013/2014

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Posted: #426
Early leanings:

Wizards - 4
Pelicans + 3
Warriors at Pelicans - Under 203.5

Pelicans is very tricky line. They have to be fav here if we look correct. If Warriors are without Iggy and Bogut + O'Neill + Ezeli they have no chance under the dash... If Jermaine is not ready... GSW are practically without Center for this game... The public is hard on Warriors but they can't win this easy only with Curry and Thompson threes... The problem here is:

1) NO are b2b and i haven't seen them yet against good team like Warriors (except Indy at opening home defeat) at home. I will watch this line carefully.
2) They are in 4 games losing streak against GSW at home

No way Lakers win 4 in a row... especially against solid home team lika WAS. I like the line movement here... public hard support Lakers and maybe i can catch it at - 3
 
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Posted: #427
wahaha good to see we are on the same side,,, noh is my play of the day and also waiting for wizard line to go lower was -5.5 and now -4 more pub to lakers pls!    

idk about the under tho BOL! 
 
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Posted: #428
This might help... 

Wizards/Lakers 
Bradley Beal (broken fibula) will be out and Trevor Ariza might play



 
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Posted: #429
nders on the pelican games. They just go through spurts. They will be playing likes it gonna be under and then last 6 minutes of the quarters score every drive. The game has gone over in 5 of the last 5. if beal is out, that a huge hit on the washington spread, his scoring and three pointers give washington pushes when they are down
 
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Posted: #430
Ive given up on the unders on the pelican games.
 
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Posted: #431
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden StateThe total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State
 
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Posted: #432
Yeah i saw this trends but you have to see the lines at these games. Totals are about 185-195.... Last two seasons (7 games combined) they both scored more than 200 once...  I continue to think that this line is tricky. Pelicans should be favorite here. I'm not surprised that the line moved to 2.5 (RLM) with this hard push for Warriors. If Iggy and Bogut were on the roster for tonight this will be easy call but i see only value with NO tonight.
 
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Posted: #433
With the injuries, warriors current losing streak, pelicans home record, i dont get how they arent favored. Seems fishy to me but i think the only play is Pelicans. 
 
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Posted: #434
They are not favorite because public blind bets on the better team (Warriors). If i was bookie i will set the line exactly where it is now (GSW fav) but the real line should be something like - 3 for Pelicans. So bet Warriors - 3 hasn't got value in my logic and line understanding. The money will go to GSW tonight... that is obvious.... bookmakers don't need to put real line here... they of course will put tricky line for all Warriors bettors.
 
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Posted: #435
Thanks funk, i see what you are saying. The line is very tricky which worries me. every time i get funny lines they burn me. I still value your picks and ideas as i did before you hit this rough patch, keep on pushing buddy.
 
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Posted: #436
Do you still feel good with the washington line if beal is out??

 
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Posted: #437
beal will miss two weeks
 
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Posted: #438
Yeah... why not. Last season Wizards bets LA at road without Beal. And LA were with full crew: Kobe, Nash, Howard, Gasol and MWP starting five. Ariza is back, he will put some points without Bradley on court. Lakers are awful away team. Wizards - 4 is not the best pick for the season but i like it and maybe will be in my card tonight.
 
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Posted: #439
Tuesday:

Pelicans + 2.5
5.5 units (to win 5)

Wizards are now - 5 at my book. Another RLM hm.... Didn't expect that move...

Strong lean:

Warriors at Pelicans - Under 204.5

This line is moving in the direction i want so i will wait more if i can get it better.
 
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Posted: #440
Cool, thanks man. One more thing. I was just looking over the game in atlanta vs orlando. 9 out of last 10 against these two have been under, no matter where they set the line. Looks like the o/u is on point at 199 but do you see any value in the under here?
 
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Posted: #441
Under is great on this game. Last 18 games (three regular seasons + 2011 playoffs combined) both teams never scored more than 199 Maybe i also will try them cause this trend is huge.
 
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Posted: #442
Add leaning to the Warriors under:

Magic at Hawks - Under 199.5

Maybe that will be my final three for the night. Good fade material for all of you fellas

 
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Posted: #443
Looks like the public also on the under, gonna grab it now before it drops. It may lose but i will hate myself for not taking it at a trend like that
 
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Posted: #444
I dont agree with your logic with NO.Without touching the bet,what does it mean that the warriors have no chance inside?Who is Pelican's center?Lol...Sure they got anthony davis...but he  s not enough to dominate the boards.
Curry+thompson+barnes could be enough to win this game...
The line is where it should be.
 
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Posted: #445
gotta get that confidence back Funk 
 
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Posted: #446
I took Lakers at +5.5... I would not take them at +4.. I really think the Wizards win by 4 or 5 at the most.. Just adding my two cents on that one.. And in my experience when there is so much trickiness and conversation about a line, leave that b itch alone lol (warriors/hornets)
 
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Posted: #447
Hey, dont worry, black monday for everybody, jejeje. Just return to the basics, choose the strong matches and play them. Lakers @ Wash, over 50 1st Q, Atlanta und 198.5 and NO +3 (GSt too much injuries). 

Final Card: 

Lakers @ Washington: Over 50 1Q
Orlando @ Atlanta: Under 198.5
Golden St @ New Orleans: NO +3

GL to all
 
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Posted: #448
Add Toronto -2.5 /1Q

Nets without guards!!!!

Final Card: 

Lakers @ Washington: Over 50 1Q
Orlando @ Atlanta: Under 198.5
Golden St @ New Orleans: NO +3
Nets @ Raptors: Rp -2.5 1Q
 
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Posted: #449
MoreGeezer I agree that GSW are way better team. Their starting five is in top five in NBA!!! But they don't have bench. Landry and Jack were very important last year and they are gone now. I follow very well Warriors because they are my fav NBA team. But i have to admit that when they suffers from injuries they are not the same team. Look their last two games... 17 bench points... Iggy was starter in first one and Bogut in two... Now imagine that Thompson, Curry or Lee hasn't got good night tonight... who will bring the points which are need to cover this ? Warriors are one of the best teams to cover when they are in full roster and one of the worst teams to cover when they struggles with injuries... I don't say that Pelicans + 2.5 are bet of the year but in this situation i see more value on their side. BOL with your picks my friend
 
 
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Posted: #450
Oh i see...well i understand your point of view.
GL with your picks

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