The play is simple
really, more interesting though, lets go through my rationale
Game 1 - Dubs at -7. The
last impression in our minds when we look at this opening line is a Cavs
domination of Game 5 to hobbled, mediocre Boston. The books wanted you to take
Cavs - silly goose, silly silly goose.
Game 2 - Dubs at -8/-8.5
after pure domination of Game 1 - the books want you to take the Dubs.
But Titus, are you
taking the bait, you might ask? Yes I am, YES I AM... and I am doing it
larggeeeee
Lebron basically said it
- you take a team that should have beat us in 5 last year (Draymond suspension)
and you add KD - welp, that is that... okay he didn’t say that exactly,
but he did say you take the greatest ever team and add KD and that is what we are
dealing with
we all saw the
domination in Game 1, neither team played to its standards. Both will make
adjustments - so the question is will Game 2 have a different ending scoring
differential than game 1?
1) History
- last year same script. Dubs win game 1 by 15 and then crush game 2,
simply take the soul out of the Cavs... But these teams are different you
might say.. Yes they are, but don't kid yourself, history matters when
analyzing games like this especially when history is last year and this Cavs
team is more or less the same. Moreover, the Dubs have KD.. lebron is 1 year
older. what side does this favor?
2) KD -
did i mention the dubs now have KD - what side do you think this favors?
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
The play is simple
really, more interesting though, lets go through my rationale
Game 1 - Dubs at -7. The
last impression in our minds when we look at this opening line is a Cavs
domination of Game 5 to hobbled, mediocre Boston. The books wanted you to take
Cavs - silly goose, silly silly goose.
Game 2 - Dubs at -8/-8.5
after pure domination of Game 1 - the books want you to take the Dubs.
But Titus, are you
taking the bait, you might ask? Yes I am, YES I AM... and I am doing it
larggeeeee
Lebron basically said it
- you take a team that should have beat us in 5 last year (Draymond suspension)
and you add KD - welp, that is that... okay he didn’t say that exactly,
but he did say you take the greatest ever team and add KD and that is what we are
dealing with
we all saw the
domination in Game 1, neither team played to its standards. Both will make
adjustments - so the question is will Game 2 have a different ending scoring
differential than game 1?
1) History
- last year same script. Dubs win game 1 by 15 and then crush game 2,
simply take the soul out of the Cavs... But these teams are different you
might say.. Yes they are, but don't kid yourself, history matters when
analyzing games like this especially when history is last year and this Cavs
team is more or less the same. Moreover, the Dubs have KD.. lebron is 1 year
older. what side does this favor?
2) KD -
did i mention the dubs now have KD - what side do you think this favors?
3) The Bron
Factor - listen Bron can takeover a game like no other player in this
NBA (although I say Russel Westbrook is maturing to the point that he can
takeover just as well). But hey, its gambling, we can lose this bet if Lebron
does.
But there are two
mitigating factors here
a) Lebron is not the
GOAT.. Lol... he plays mediocre teams (by any historical or next level metrics
stadards) from the east in these playoffs, and he looks like the GOAT, he moans
like the GOAT, but Bron is not the GOAT. Sure, he is on Mount Rushmore and when
its all said and done, I will prob have him at #3 behind Michael and Bill
Russell. And this is being kind to Lebron but hey, I love the guy! Just a few
years ago, we talked about Lebron like he was Jim Kelley of the Buffalo Bills,
makes the dance and then folds.. Lebron is a more mature and equally as
dominant as he was in the past which overall, makes his impact on outcome
greater than previous years - and this is the only reason this line is -8.5 and
not -14..
b) here is my big point
- this Dubs team can win by 9+ even if Bron goes off. So we are somewhat
protected even with the Lebron factor, more to come read #8
4) Turnovers -
the turnover discrpency should tighten from game 1 - yielding a closer
game. Yes the turnovers will tighten. first, i think dubs still win the turnover
battle. But second - the 20-4 discrepancy from game 1 is really 20-10ish - i
counted 5+ times dubs had wide open layups (im looking at you zaza and
draymond) and passed to outside shooters that missed. For me, those are
turnovers…
5) Shooting percentage -
the cavs will shoot better. yep. but so will the dubs... cavs were shell
shocked by this dubs team defense. they will shoot better but they shouldnt be
much above 40%. their shooters are great when wide open and
in rhythm - Dubs wont let this happen.
6) Rebounding -
the dubs were out rebounded 59 to 50. In the regular season the dubs were the
9th best rebounding team in the regular season with a +.9 differential. The
Cavs were 19th at -.4... In the cakewalk playoffs, the Cavs are 3rd at +4 and the
Dubs are 7th at +1.8... Listening to post game interviews - I think the Dubs
are focused on closing the gap here... i expect this to tighten slightly..
Perhaps close to even....
7) Revenge and
focus - everything coming out of the dubs is we need to get better. we
need to further increase defensive intensity. we need to make better decisions
on offense.. this team will make adjustments just like the cavs will... they
remember last season. they know they will only be judged on the championships
they win. to be the greatest team of all time**** that couldn’t win
championships... No letting off the gas… KD – to be the 2ndgreatest
player in the NBA (to go down as all all-time great) to join the greatest team,
and still come up short.. Nahhhhh
0
3) The Bron
Factor - listen Bron can takeover a game like no other player in this
NBA (although I say Russel Westbrook is maturing to the point that he can
takeover just as well). But hey, its gambling, we can lose this bet if Lebron
does.
But there are two
mitigating factors here
a) Lebron is not the
GOAT.. Lol... he plays mediocre teams (by any historical or next level metrics
stadards) from the east in these playoffs, and he looks like the GOAT, he moans
like the GOAT, but Bron is not the GOAT. Sure, he is on Mount Rushmore and when
its all said and done, I will prob have him at #3 behind Michael and Bill
Russell. And this is being kind to Lebron but hey, I love the guy! Just a few
years ago, we talked about Lebron like he was Jim Kelley of the Buffalo Bills,
makes the dance and then folds.. Lebron is a more mature and equally as
dominant as he was in the past which overall, makes his impact on outcome
greater than previous years - and this is the only reason this line is -8.5 and
not -14..
b) here is my big point
- this Dubs team can win by 9+ even if Bron goes off. So we are somewhat
protected even with the Lebron factor, more to come read #8
4) Turnovers -
the turnover discrpency should tighten from game 1 - yielding a closer
game. Yes the turnovers will tighten. first, i think dubs still win the turnover
battle. But second - the 20-4 discrepancy from game 1 is really 20-10ish - i
counted 5+ times dubs had wide open layups (im looking at you zaza and
draymond) and passed to outside shooters that missed. For me, those are
turnovers…
5) Shooting percentage -
the cavs will shoot better. yep. but so will the dubs... cavs were shell
shocked by this dubs team defense. they will shoot better but they shouldnt be
much above 40%. their shooters are great when wide open and
in rhythm - Dubs wont let this happen.
6) Rebounding -
the dubs were out rebounded 59 to 50. In the regular season the dubs were the
9th best rebounding team in the regular season with a +.9 differential. The
Cavs were 19th at -.4... In the cakewalk playoffs, the Cavs are 3rd at +4 and the
Dubs are 7th at +1.8... Listening to post game interviews - I think the Dubs
are focused on closing the gap here... i expect this to tighten slightly..
Perhaps close to even....
7) Revenge and
focus - everything coming out of the dubs is we need to get better. we
need to further increase defensive intensity. we need to make better decisions
on offense.. this team will make adjustments just like the cavs will... they
remember last season. they know they will only be judged on the championships
they win. to be the greatest team of all time**** that couldn’t win
championships... No letting off the gas… KD – to be the 2ndgreatest
player in the NBA (to go down as all all-time great) to join the greatest team,
and still come up short.. Nahhhhh
8) Defense –
In Game 1 - Cavs tried to take away the 3 - clearly their game plan. Wow
what a backfire, when you see that exposing them to wide open layups. How many
KD dunks, how many times did Zaza and Draymond have open layups (although they
passed off these open looks half the time). Dubs wont pass off in Game 2.
But more importantly, what we are seeing is this version of the Dubs team
doesnt rely on the 3 like it did last year. Unlike last year, they truly are
undefendable... you guard the paint and the hole, they’ll kill you with
trey. You guard the trey, well you saw what happens… And in Game 1, you see
what I have been saying since the playoffs began – the Dubs are the best
defensive team in the league…. That is it, and that is all…
9) Bench –
you know, going into this game, I thought the cavs had a slight or even more
than slight advantage in the bench department given the added pieces of Korver
and DWill… First, between the benches, I would take Iggy before anyone else.
And beyond, I will take the Dubs youth versus the veteran cavs bench
10) Playing time –
time catches up to everyone, even Lebron… And playing 40+mins across the
playoffs, I would not want to bet on that yielding peak performance..
11) My player
power rankings
1) Bron
2) KD/Steph
3) Steph/KD
4) Dray
5) Kyrie
6) Klay/Love – I
personally will take Klay’s lockdown defense (woah did I just say lockdown D
7) Klay/Love
8) Trisan Thomson (if he
actually shows up)
9) Iggy
10) JR Smith – if he
actually shows up
0
8) Defense –
In Game 1 - Cavs tried to take away the 3 - clearly their game plan. Wow
what a backfire, when you see that exposing them to wide open layups. How many
KD dunks, how many times did Zaza and Draymond have open layups (although they
passed off these open looks half the time). Dubs wont pass off in Game 2.
But more importantly, what we are seeing is this version of the Dubs team
doesnt rely on the 3 like it did last year. Unlike last year, they truly are
undefendable... you guard the paint and the hole, they’ll kill you with
trey. You guard the trey, well you saw what happens… And in Game 1, you see
what I have been saying since the playoffs began – the Dubs are the best
defensive team in the league…. That is it, and that is all…
9) Bench –
you know, going into this game, I thought the cavs had a slight or even more
than slight advantage in the bench department given the added pieces of Korver
and DWill… First, between the benches, I would take Iggy before anyone else.
And beyond, I will take the Dubs youth versus the veteran cavs bench
10) Playing time –
time catches up to everyone, even Lebron… And playing 40+mins across the
playoffs, I would not want to bet on that yielding peak performance..
11) My player
power rankings
1) Bron
2) KD/Steph
3) Steph/KD
4) Dray
5) Kyrie
6) Klay/Love – I
personally will take Klay’s lockdown defense (woah did I just say lockdown D
Don’t fear the reaper my
covers brethren – I will happily lay the 8 points - -8 10 units… I see this being harder than game 1, a low to
mid-teens Dubs victory… not the pure blowout of last year’s game 2. But a line
set at -8/-8.5 – give it too me all night long
Lets see where line
movement takes it… I could double up to 20 units when it is all said and done…
Don’t quote me on this but if my memory serves me, 15 units is my largest
single game bball bet. Such is my conviction level…
As always bet
responsibly… I have been hitting probably about 75% posted in the playoffs but
75% is no 100%...
0
Don’t fear the reaper my
covers brethren – I will happily lay the 8 points - -8 10 units… I see this being harder than game 1, a low to
mid-teens Dubs victory… not the pure blowout of last year’s game 2. But a line
set at -8/-8.5 – give it too me all night long
Lets see where line
movement takes it… I could double up to 20 units when it is all said and done…
Don’t quote me on this but if my memory serves me, 15 units is my largest
single game bball bet. Such is my conviction level…
As always bet
responsibly… I have been hitting probably about 75% posted in the playoffs but
75% is no 100%...
Some nice points here Titus. The only problem for me is that the line went up for the Cavs. That was perplexing. If anything, traditionally it goes down as the team that falls behind puts forth more effort to stay out of a deeper hole.
I don't want this line to turn into a "Books CYA line" that is "Cover your a**" line as they extend it out to the point where they just sneak under it (or give themselves far more than enough insurance in a close game to not have a team like the Warriors bash them late) and this number prevents most of that. The +16/+17 the Celtics got in Game 3 last series was a massive CYA line and even came through in Game 4 (as the Cavs only won by 13) which closed at +15.5.
+9 already on 5Dimes. This just isn't as meaty a spot as the previous game for me because Game 2's just don't have as much promise as game 1 (mainly because of rest and the ability to adjust). But having said all that, I like your argumentation.
0
Some nice points here Titus. The only problem for me is that the line went up for the Cavs. That was perplexing. If anything, traditionally it goes down as the team that falls behind puts forth more effort to stay out of a deeper hole.
I don't want this line to turn into a "Books CYA line" that is "Cover your a**" line as they extend it out to the point where they just sneak under it (or give themselves far more than enough insurance in a close game to not have a team like the Warriors bash them late) and this number prevents most of that. The +16/+17 the Celtics got in Game 3 last series was a massive CYA line and even came through in Game 4 (as the Cavs only won by 13) which closed at +15.5.
+9 already on 5Dimes. This just isn't as meaty a spot as the previous game for me because Game 2's just don't have as much promise as game 1 (mainly because of rest and the ability to adjust). But having said all that, I like your argumentation.
Some nice points here Titus. The only problem for me is that the line went up for the Cavs. That was perplexing. If anything, traditionally it goes down as the team that falls behind puts forth more effort to stay out of a deeper hole.
I don't want this line to turn into a "Books CYA line" that is "Cover your a**" line as they extend it out to the point where they just sneak under it (or give themselves far more than enough insurance in a close game to not have a team like the Warriors bash them late) and this number prevents most of that. The +16/+17 the Celtics got in Game 3 last series was a massive CYA line and even came through in Game 4 (as the Cavs only won by 13) which closed at +15.5.
+9 already on 5Dimes. This just isn't as meaty a spot as the previous game for me because Game 2's just don't have as much promise as game 1 (mainly because of rest and the ability to adjust). But having said all that, I like your argumentation.
Scal +9 CYA line, hmm... look at cavs Boston game 1 and 2 - same type of line movement if I remember correctly
0
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
Some nice points here Titus. The only problem for me is that the line went up for the Cavs. That was perplexing. If anything, traditionally it goes down as the team that falls behind puts forth more effort to stay out of a deeper hole.
I don't want this line to turn into a "Books CYA line" that is "Cover your a**" line as they extend it out to the point where they just sneak under it (or give themselves far more than enough insurance in a close game to not have a team like the Warriors bash them late) and this number prevents most of that. The +16/+17 the Celtics got in Game 3 last series was a massive CYA line and even came through in Game 4 (as the Cavs only won by 13) which closed at +15.5.
+9 already on 5Dimes. This just isn't as meaty a spot as the previous game for me because Game 2's just don't have as much promise as game 1 (mainly because of rest and the ability to adjust). But having said all that, I like your argumentation.
Scal +9 CYA line, hmm... look at cavs Boston game 1 and 2 - same type of line movement if I remember correctly
Scal +9 CYA line, hmm... look at cavs Boston game 1 and 2 - same type of line movement if I remember correctly
You're not remembering correctly.
Boston +4.5 and Boston +5 in game 1 and 2 are not comparable CYA spreads, especially as you approach 0/1. The further from Zero towards 10 are CYA lines. The true comparison is to Games 3 and 4 with the 16 and 15.5 pt lines which are the truest of true CYA lines.
I don't think I'll be betting this one. There just not enough here for me.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Titusblink:
Scal +9 CYA line, hmm... look at cavs Boston game 1 and 2 - same type of line movement if I remember correctly
You're not remembering correctly.
Boston +4.5 and Boston +5 in game 1 and 2 are not comparable CYA spreads, especially as you approach 0/1. The further from Zero towards 10 are CYA lines. The true comparison is to Games 3 and 4 with the 16 and 15.5 pt lines which are the truest of true CYA lines.
I don't think I'll be betting this one. There just not enough here for me.
ESPN headline - 'Cavs want JR Smith to shoot more' - you're playing the best team ever assembled and your answer isssss: ahh yes, a 35% regular season shooter... lol
Joking aside - the increase in physicality is what I'll be watching closely. Let's see how the refs cal this game
0
ESPN headline - 'Cavs want JR Smith to shoot more' - you're playing the best team ever assembled and your answer isssss: ahh yes, a 35% regular season shooter... lol
Joking aside - the increase in physicality is what I'll be watching closely. Let's see how the refs cal this game
The BOOKS have been very lazy with their OVERS in all games of the playoffs. There seems to be no adjustments as the games continued to go over. ( I spent 10 years in Vegas as a SportsBook Director ) I would have started this line at CLEVELAND +12 to entice more Action
12 and the world goes to cavs but would have been a no play for me....
as we both agreed let's see the same flow and refs willingness to let cavs impose themselves physically
0
Quote Originally Posted by DavidA15:
The BOOKS have been very lazy with their OVERS in all games of the playoffs. There seems to be no adjustments as the games continued to go over. ( I spent 10 years in Vegas as a SportsBook Director ) I would have started this line at CLEVELAND +12 to entice more Action
12 and the world goes to cavs but would have been a no play for me....
as we both agreed let's see the same flow and refs willingness to let cavs impose themselves physically
I'm really impressed with everyone that writes in. You guys really know your stuff. Betting is more then stats. Betting is being able to get inside a player or players head to see how they are thinking. Players are like Good poker players but everyone has a TELL. GOOD LUCK TO YOU ALL REMEMBER TO HAVE FUN...and a bankroll last only to the next Game Save some money for NFL...NCAAF MY GIFT TO YOU ALL Take Carolina -4.5 @ SF WEEK 1. I live in Mexico and the line is -4.5 but online its..-6.5...
0
Quote Originally Posted by DavidA15:
I'm really impressed with everyone that writes in. You guys really know your stuff. Betting is more then stats. Betting is being able to get inside a player or players head to see how they are thinking. Players are like Good poker players but everyone has a TELL. GOOD LUCK TO YOU ALL REMEMBER TO HAVE FUN...and a bankroll last only to the next Game Save some money for NFL...NCAAF MY GIFT TO YOU ALL Take Carolina -4.5 @ SF WEEK 1. I live in Mexico and the line is -4.5 but online its..-6.5...
Some nice points here Titus. The only problem for me is that the line went up for the Cavs. That was perplexing. If anything, traditionally it goes down as the team that falls behind puts forth more effort to stay out of a deeper hole.I don't want this line to turn into a "Books CYA line" that is "Cover your a**" line as they extend it out to the point where they just sneak under it (or give themselves far more than enough insurance in a close game to not have a team like the Warriors bash them late) and this number prevents most of that. The +16/+17 the Celtics got in Game 3 last series was a massive CYA line and even came through in Game 4 (as the Cavs only won by 13) which closed at +15.5.+9 already on 5Dimes. This just isn't as meaty a spot as the previous game for me because Game 2's just don't have as much promise as game 1 (mainly because of rest and the ability to adjust). But having said all that, I like your argumentation.
The BOOKS have been very lazy with their OVERS in all games of the playoffs. There seems to be no adjustments as the games continued to go over. ( I spent 10 years in Vegas as a SportsBook Director ) I would have started this line at CLEVELAND +12 to entice more Action
Thanks u just improved my confidence in golden state covering the point spread tonight since you are a former sportsbook director.
0
Quote Originally Posted by DavidA15:
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
Some nice points here Titus. The only problem for me is that the line went up for the Cavs. That was perplexing. If anything, traditionally it goes down as the team that falls behind puts forth more effort to stay out of a deeper hole.I don't want this line to turn into a "Books CYA line" that is "Cover your a**" line as they extend it out to the point where they just sneak under it (or give themselves far more than enough insurance in a close game to not have a team like the Warriors bash them late) and this number prevents most of that. The +16/+17 the Celtics got in Game 3 last series was a massive CYA line and even came through in Game 4 (as the Cavs only won by 13) which closed at +15.5.+9 already on 5Dimes. This just isn't as meaty a spot as the previous game for me because Game 2's just don't have as much promise as game 1 (mainly because of rest and the ability to adjust). But having said all that, I like your argumentation.
The BOOKS have been very lazy with their OVERS in all games of the playoffs. There seems to be no adjustments as the games continued to go over. ( I spent 10 years in Vegas as a SportsBook Director ) I would have started this line at CLEVELAND +12 to entice more Action
Thanks u just improved my confidence in golden state covering the point spread tonight since you are a former sportsbook director.
I welcome critiques and opposing views or even you telling me I'm a homer and the Cavs are going to mKe it rain but LMAO, my covers brethren, you can do better than that
0
Quote Originally Posted by Txcarr:
LMAO
I welcome critiques and opposing views or even you telling me I'm a homer and the Cavs are going to mKe it rain but LMAO, my covers brethren, you can do better than that
If what the Cavs are saying before game 2... that JR needs to shoot more... that they only need to make small adjustments according to Richard Jefferson... then the Cavs are in even MORE trouble than we think...
0
If what the Cavs are saying before game 2... that JR needs to shoot more... that they only need to make small adjustments according to Richard Jefferson... then the Cavs are in even MORE trouble than we think...
If what the Cavs are saying before game 2... that JR needs to shoot more... that they only need to make small adjustments according to Richard Jefferson... then the Cavs are in even MORE trouble than we think...
Can't read into it, they have some scheming up their sleeves... as long as refs call a true game, I don't care!
0
Quote Originally Posted by drewskie:
If what the Cavs are saying before game 2... that JR needs to shoot more... that they only need to make small adjustments according to Richard Jefferson... then the Cavs are in even MORE trouble than we think...
Can't read into it, they have some scheming up their sleeves... as long as refs call a true game, I don't care!
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