Just finished checking out the Warriors/Raptors game.....The Line seems to be correct at Golden State -2.0 but I think the Warriors have a tough go of it today.....
Golden State's Away Record at 18-13 is very comparable to Toronto's Home Record of 16-12.....And since Golden State has covered 9 of the past 10 games against the Raptors, the Warriors should be the pick of the day with that short line of -2.0.....
Not so fast.....
To start with, the Warriors are 0-4 ATS the last 4 games versus teams with a winning Home Record. Not a good start.....Toronto has a winning Home Record.....
I also looked at how the Warriors play after a Victory and Large Victories.....After a win Golden State is only 15-19-1 ATS and after a win of 20 points or more.....The Warriors are "ONLY" 1-4 ATS on the Road.....I also found that after Golden State scores over 123 points in their previous game, The Warriors are a dismal 0-3 ATS.....
I also took a peek at how Golden State performs a Favorite of 1 to 2.5 points and they underperformed again with a 2-3 ATS record!!! As a Favorite of 1 to 3.5 points, Golden States record gets even worse with a 4-8 record ATS.....Advantage Toronto.....
Now as far as Toronto goes, I know that they haven't been very lucky playing the Warriors but I think this is a great situational play for them today.....The Warriors are coming off a Huge 23 point win over the Knicks, while scoring 126 points in the process, while the Raptors allowed 134 points to the Wizards in a loss.....But I believe that the loss was due to the Look-Ahead Game against Golden State.....Toronto had already beaten Washington 3 times this year before that game.....
Toronto tends to play well after a loss, with a record of 15-9-1 ATS and are 2-1 ATS as a Dog of 1 to 2.5 points this year.....I also checked into how the Raptors play after allowing Over 100 points in their previous game and Toronto responds with an incredible 16-6-1 record ATS!!! And after scoring over 100 points in their previous game, the Raptors tend to keep it rolling by going 18-11-1 ATS.....This trend favors Toronto greatly.....
I also had to take a look at Guard play for both teams.....Since, this is where Golden State accumulates most of their point production.....No one can doubt the fact that Golden State has 2 of the best guards in the game today in Curry and Thompson but the fact of the matter is, Derozan was an All-Star this year and is more athletic than either Curry or Thompson. And Lowry is a great compliment to Derozan.....
As far as point production goes Head to Head, the Raptors are closing the gap.....Now with some consistency in the Toronto Lineup and a better supporting cast, Derozan and Lowry have jelled and become a great tandom.....
The game played this year in Golden State had Curry and Thompson outscoring Derozan and Lowry by a 49-46 score.....Toronto has closed the gap.....The previous game was also in Golden State last season, where Curry and Thompson outscored Derozan and Lowry 48-26.....
I also wanted to look at how Golden State responded in the 1st and 2nd Quarter following a win of 20 or more points and scoring over 123 points or more their previous game.....The Warriors are very slow starters being outscored in the 1st Quarter and 1st Half about 90% of the time.....Which leads me to believe that Golden State are creatures of habit and certain trends just can't be overlooked.....
I also have a System Play with a 63% Winning Percentage that states to go for a team with at least a 65% Home Winning Percentage, if they are a Home Dog of less than 4 points, coming off a loss and have double revenge against their current opponent.....This System fits almost perfectly accept for the fact that Toronto has only a 58% Home Winning Percentage but all of the other components of the System are still there!!!
Lastly, we can't overlook the fact that Toronto hasn't been in the playoffs for years and every game counts Huge for the Raptors. Toronto now sits in the 3 spot in the East tied with Chicago and Washington breathing down their neck, only a game and a half behind them. I think Toronto gets it done today.....
My Plays will be:
Toronto 1st Quarter.....
Toronto 1st Half.....
Toronto +2.0.....
Good Luck!!! 
Raptors
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