Great strategy how to bet the 242.5 Total tonight between the Pacers and the Bucks!

I followed the total line yesterday, and I also had a bet on the over, and Utah/Indiana are this year proably the highest scoring teams in the NBA even more than the Wizard.

However, last year Milwaukee Bucks with Giannis Antekokokoko were a high scoring team, so a combination of the Pacers and the Bucks here is not a great "recipe" for an easy Over 242.5 as some might think.

Instead,

The best way to bet on this one is to do it in live, especially if you like the over in this one, as I less like it but you can definitely expect the total line tonight to drop towards 230 or even below.

Why?

Because last night it started 242.5 and only in the 1st/2nd quarter touched the 238.5 momentarily, but most of the game last night it was over 240 .... tonight as these are two prime time games you can expect the total to drop low, before, and if you like it.

In fact, the Under 227.5 before the game starts is 4.00 so if you bet $100 on it you would win $400, so take this bet, and then in live get the Over 227.5 and this way you would make a "sure" profit as you're forecasting a drop in the total line.

Or you could bet with your hunch in live, take over 220ish or what's not, it could end under or over that number, I really can't tell - but at least you would have a good opportunity to win nicely out of this - so don't bet this one now, do it in live unless you're going to hedge against a low total.

No feedback?! 

Interesting info. GL 

whos to say the game will start off slow for the live number to drop so much in the first place?

@SPark1

 You're right, this is not a guarantee but that expectations from these scenarios is to see the numbers flying and normally the reality is proving you wrong.

I'd even take a risk and say the 1H under is likely to happen as well here.

Arbitrage is a tough way to squeeze a profit. 

A) you are initially betting against what you actually think will happen. 

B) you pay double vig and the live bet is usally -115 (1.85) or worse. 

Live lines move based on what is happening in live play. Sure, you might get lucky as your example pointed out, and they miss shots for the first quarter and it say, 25-25. At that point, the line would drop to your 230ish estimate. What if they start out hot and it's 35-35? Do you have any data to back up the idea that prime time games stay under? If you think that, why not just bet the under?

I wish you luck. As someone who spent half a season trying to middle, or in a sense, arbitrage, I can say it was not successful for me for the 2 reasons stated above. 

@canadiantruth

 No, you don't do that - I said if you like the over don't bet over 242.5 - you can get better numbers in live!

You can try to abitrage it as well but yes, like you said, it's riskier.

If I had to bet 1H Under for me, and that's it ... won't bet on the full game but O230.5 in my opinion would definitely happen tonight

what if the game starts out hot & the in game total rises? you cant even hedge. your under is dead money.

if you lean on the over just take it. why would you even lean under 1H then wind up on the over anyway? both teams are on 3rd game in 4 nights. this game is prolly gonna suck & go under.