HAWKS @ KNICKS: What's the key to being a winning capper? Look for what's not in the line.

2016 Record: 30-12 (71%)

The pick:

HAWKS -2.5 over KNICKS

Obvious title? Yes. But we need to be reminded of it.

Forget the rest of the cap, you already know it. I don't have to tell you how terrible the Knicks are and how well the Hawks are playing.

I will tell you that the only reason the Knicks weren't blown out by 25 against the Wizards last game is because of a FORTY SIX point fourth quarter which seems impossible for the Knicks. But that is what happens when everyone is benched too early and the other team actually makes the final (119-112) look respectable. The Knicks were getting the doors blown off them.

So what is NOT in the line here? (and at this line of -2.5, it's definitely not in there)

Tim Hardaway Jr.

He is our wildcard. This guy gave the Knicks everything he had two years ago in a 17 win season under Fisher.

He was essentially their leader given Carmelo was out for half the year.

And what did the Knicks do to him? They essentially tossed him in the scrap heap. No appreciation. No raise. No future with the Knicks. He knows this and has said publicly that is he had a chance with another to play against them, well, it's lip service but he said what you wanted to hear.

He rides the bench right now with the Hawks.

"So Scal, how can we get use out of this angle given that?"

Guess what? His last 5 games have been his best of the season after game 1 (26 vs. the Lakers) and he is surging in performance and minutes.

And now, and this is key, after a DNP and an injury prevented him from seeing the court vs. the Knicks last year (not a single minute played in MSG last year in his first opportunity), THIS will be his true return to MSG against the team that shi* on him.

He's averaged 13.6 and 54% over his last 5 and will surely see increased minutes vs. the Knicks given his history. And when he's motivated he's a damn good little player.

The other issues are obvious. Noah CANNOT score and I don't know how he's going to handle a rejuvenated Howard underneath. Rose? Who the hell knows what he'll give on any night? Could be 2. Could be 20. You don't know and I wouldn't gamble on it.

This is the dreaded Noon start which is an angle that really went away with the Knicks but man oh man, 3 years ago this angle made us a mint.

I'm more than happy taking the Hawks here with an ultra-low line where only 1 and 2 points covers for the Knicks, essentially meaning they must win outright.

Hawks off a tough loss to the Hornets last time out and I always like the team I'm betting on coming off a loss for a little extra motivation/preparation to make up for it.

Looks like this line has sat pretty for us because all bettors are too interested in CFB to move this line. Fine, we'll take it as it sits.

Let's see if Hardaway can impress us. Hopefully he gets his fair share of minutes to show the MSG fans what they discarded like an old newspaper. 15/16 pts here from Tim Jr. is more than enough to get the cover, and not unreasonable given his recent uptick, so the win and cover is here for us if everyone plays to their averages. Knicks are also a bizarre 1-5 ATS as dogs this year. If you believe NONE of this you STILL get an excellent Hawks team vs. a Knicks team STILL learning to run the triangle (and they hate the triangle. Only Phil loves it.) 

It works in reverse with Knicks Papa.

It was so bad that 3 years ago, Knicks management lobbied the NBA to remove all the noon weekend starts off their schedule because the Knicks were losing all of them. If I recall, the Knicks were 0-6 ATS that year before they beat a terrible Bucks team in a noon start.

I don't use that trend anymore because again, the sample got much smaller per season with the Knicks lobbying the front office but when it was there, it worked against the Knicks, not for them. For the record,  they had a noon start this year at home vs. the Jazz and lost SU and ATS 114-109 as 2.5 pt dogs. 

You have to have an angle for a game.

If there is no angle, you will be a 50%-55% capper because the number, which should even things out, will eventually get you over the long-run.

Hardaway is the difference in the number or else this is just a square play at Atlanta 9-3 vs. the Knicks at 5-7.

I'd love for Hardaway to try to do all he can because that will maximize his effort on both ends of the court which should exceed his averages. Budenholzer should see this. Even if he doesn't, his play of late will get him crucial minutes where he should perform. If all else fails, the Hawks are more talented than the Knicks at every position, starter and bench except vs. Porzingis.

PARLAY (4 TEAMS)

NBA

[502] TOTAL u211-140 (B+1.5 ) (Atlanta Hawks vrs New York Knicks)