Heat -8.5 (-110)
- The back to back doesn't scare me for Miami because the starters played under their average minutes in a blowout win last night. The Heat are only 2-4 on the second leg of a B2B but both those wins came at home
- Spurs are atrocious on the road. They average 115PPG at HOME vs 110PPG on the ROAD. SAS is also 3-12 last 15 road games with wins against BOTTOM 5 teams (Wizards, Pistons, Blazers). The Spurs have the 5th worst margin of victory on the road with -10.6 (meaning when they lose on the road, the average margin is 10.6 points)
- Miami won the first matchup by 5 at San Antonio early in the season when they were without Tyler Herro & Terry Rozier (and Caleb Martin who played well last night).
- If Jimmy doesn't play, I anticipate the line to drop to -4/5 but I still expect Miami to win and cover
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