Posted:
#1
Game: Knicks @ Rockets
Line: Knicks -4 (you can still find it at 3.5 too on Bovada as of this posting)
Linsanity is a thing of the past right? A fleeting moment in Knicks history that is no longer relevant.
Well let me give you a wake-up call. To the Knicks, in their first game against Jeremy Lin, it is very, very relevant.
Felton, the guy who the Knicks signed may just have the game of his life against Lin. That will be combined with Kidd making a point to show him up as much as possible in this game as well.
The Knicks will smother Lin. You will see turnovers and some of the most aggressive D possible to ensure Lin doesn't do anything of consequence in the box score against the Knicks. Lin will score and get some assists because he does have talent, but this will NOT be a Linsanity type game of last year.
Therefore, in my view, this will be a 4 on 5. So how will the rest of the team fair against the Rockets? The Knicks have the best point differential in the league (Offensive output - Defensive Pts allowed). Why is this important? Listen to the top teams in the league in Pt Differential last year: Miami, Chicago, OKC, San Antonio, and Boston.
Needless to say, Pt Differential determines playoff teams and champions.
The Knicks are playoff, and at this point, championship material.
Curious about the Rockets Pt. Differential this year? -1.1
They are an average to a below average team playing one of the best, if not the best team in the league at this point. Remember the Knicks smoked the Heat opening night and beat San Antonio in their house this year. The only reason they have two losses is because the second leg of both games were on B2B's, one against Memphis (the other Dallas) who is another elite team in the West. Without the B2B's the Knicks could easily be undefeated as the rest of their wins are by significant margins and are no fluke.
The Knicks are winning games no in ways that are, amazingly, boring. They are almost TOO efficient (see the recent win over the Hornets).
So what's the opening line? -4 Knicks.
Guys, this line is ideal. I'm making this one of the biggest plays this year thusfar given I'm so comfortable with them covering it.
So to summarize:
We have what may be the best team in the league, offensively and defensively, going against an average to below average team coupled with the extra motivation to show up the guy who created hysteria in their city (and worldwide) and leave Houston with a convincing win.
The ONLY con I can think of is that the Knicks likely didn't practice today and may have fattened themselves up a bit too much with family with stuffing and mash. But even at that, the Rockets likely didn't practice as well and fattened themselves up like the rest of the league and America as well. Otherwise, there is NO REASON you shouldn't pound this line for all of the reasons above.
This is not a trap line, just a bad one at the moment for you to take advantage of. Forget your unwarranted fear of the public pounding/what vegas knows that we don't! Sometimes that is warranted but not in this game. Let Vegas take a bath on this one while you profit.
The pick:
KNICKS -4 over Rockets
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