Hello, I am a data analyst & have created a program that predicts NBA Total Odd/Even. The odds for that market are 1.83 or 5/6. After making the program I tested all the matches played in this year & got 9 wins out of 11 games. How should i manage my bankroll & stake my bets as so make the optimum profit. Thanks.
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Hello, I am a data analyst & have created a program that predicts NBA Total Odd/Even. The odds for that market are 1.83 or 5/6. After making the program I tested all the matches played in this year & got 9 wins out of 11 games. How should i manage my bankroll & stake my bets as so make the optimum profit. Thanks.
I will try, The problem is you have to wait till the end of 3 rd Quarter. During the break between Q3 & Q4 is when you load the data to predict. I am from India & the NBA games are like at 6am. It will be tough waking this early just to post picks. I will try though :)
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Quote Originally Posted by outcold415:
post your plays
I will try, The problem is you have to wait till the end of 3 rd Quarter. During the break between Q3 & Q4 is when you load the data to predict. I am from India & the NBA games are like at 6am. It will be tough waking this early just to post picks. I will try though :)
If the OP's question is theoretical and it is the post-title one, then this would be burning money.
Hitting 82% at -120 odds one should bet at least 30% of his bankroll each bet, and this is conservative (half Kelly)
obv NewtonsLaw refers to real life and even OP doubt he really expects anything even close to this percentage.
At -120 one should hit 55% or better to make any profit at all and he should bet no more than 2% if not above 56%. Tough to maintain longterm playing only totals imo.
Sagarr,
my personal opinion is to avoid betting at all at those odds since it wouldn't be hard to find -110 or maybe -105.
At any odds, when yous sample size gets significant enough and you can have a good estimate of win-rate, bet-sizing between half-kelly and kelly would be the answer to your question
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Quote Originally Posted by Newtons Law:
Start by betting 3% of your bankroll on each game
If the OP's question is theoretical and it is the post-title one, then this would be burning money.
Hitting 82% at -120 odds one should bet at least 30% of his bankroll each bet, and this is conservative (half Kelly)
obv NewtonsLaw refers to real life and even OP doubt he really expects anything even close to this percentage.
At -120 one should hit 55% or better to make any profit at all and he should bet no more than 2% if not above 56%. Tough to maintain longterm playing only totals imo.
Sagarr,
my personal opinion is to avoid betting at all at those odds since it wouldn't be hard to find -110 or maybe -105.
At any odds, when yous sample size gets significant enough and you can have a good estimate of win-rate, bet-sizing between half-kelly and kelly would be the answer to your question
I will try, The problem is you have to wait till the end of 3 rd Quarter. During the break between Q3 & Q4 is when you load the data to predict. I am from India & the NBA games are like at 6am. It will be tough waking this early just to post picks. I will try though :)
You're up anyway at that time to place your bets, are you not? So post your plays right after placing. How long can it take?
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Quote Originally Posted by Sagarrr:
I will try, The problem is you have to wait till the end of 3 rd Quarter. During the break between Q3 & Q4 is when you load the data to predict. I am from India & the NBA games are like at 6am. It will be tough waking this early just to post picks. I will try though :)
You're up anyway at that time to place your bets, are you not? So post your plays right after placing. How long can it take?
I will try, The problem is you have to wait till the end of 3 rd Quarter. During the break between Q3 & Q4 is when you load the data to predict. I am from India & the NBA games are like at 6am. It will be tough waking this early just to post picks. I will try though :)
data
india
"try though"
something tells me do not believe this story
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Quote Originally Posted by Sagarrr:
I will try, The problem is you have to wait till the end of 3 rd Quarter. During the break between Q3 & Q4 is when you load the data to predict. I am from India & the NBA games are like at 6am. It will be tough waking this early just to post picks. I will try though :)
If the OP's question is theoretical and it is the post-title one, then this would be burning money.
Hitting 82% at -120 odds one should bet at least 30% of his bankroll each bet, and this is conservative (half Kelly)
obv NewtonsLaw refers to real life and even OP doubt he really expects anything even close to this percentage.
At -120 one should hit 55% or better to make any profit at all and he should bet no more than 2% if not above 56%. Tough to maintain longterm playing only totals imo.
Sagarr,
my personal opinion is to avoid betting at all at those odds since it wouldn't be hard to find -110 or maybe -105.
At any odds, when yous sample size gets significant enough and you can have a good estimate of win-rate, bet-sizing between half-kelly and kelly would be the answer to your question
Thank you this was helpful. I found a kelly calculator.
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Quote Originally Posted by outoforder:
If the OP's question is theoretical and it is the post-title one, then this would be burning money.
Hitting 82% at -120 odds one should bet at least 30% of his bankroll each bet, and this is conservative (half Kelly)
obv NewtonsLaw refers to real life and even OP doubt he really expects anything even close to this percentage.
At -120 one should hit 55% or better to make any profit at all and he should bet no more than 2% if not above 56%. Tough to maintain longterm playing only totals imo.
Sagarr,
my personal opinion is to avoid betting at all at those odds since it wouldn't be hard to find -110 or maybe -105.
At any odds, when yous sample size gets significant enough and you can have a good estimate of win-rate, bet-sizing between half-kelly and kelly would be the answer to your question
Thank you this was helpful. I found a kelly calculator.
1-5% depending on your willingness to lose it. this is a maration. glad to see youre not overly confident in a small sample size that can kill.its easy to get emotion with a lot on the line and not worth it
Yup I know. Though 9 out of 11 is good, Its better to see how it works out over a larger scale.
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Quote Originally Posted by monstergrit:
1-5% depending on your willingness to lose it. this is a maration. glad to see youre not overly confident in a small sample size that can kill.its easy to get emotion with a lot on the line and not worth it
Yup I know. Though 9 out of 11 is good, Its better to see how it works out over a larger scale.
Like i said the matches are live when o am sleeping as here its early morning during the games. I had made a video explain a different less complex system, that was 6 wins in 8 games today. Here is the linkhttps://youtu.be/AR242gbv7CY
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Quote Originally Posted by deucepola:
post your picks
Like i said the matches are live when o am sleeping as here its early morning during the games. I had made a video explain a different less complex system, that was 6 wins in 8 games today. Here is the linkhttps://youtu.be/AR242gbv7CY
Thanks for posting this. It is really interesting and seems way too simple. Im going to watch it for a while and see if it evens out over time. I hope I be on the good side of a couple of these though.
can you explain your more complicated method of determining the outcomes?
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Thanks for posting this. It is really interesting and seems way too simple. Im going to watch it for a while and see if it evens out over time. I hope I be on the good side of a couple of these though.
can you explain your more complicated method of determining the outcomes?
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