Posted:
#1
2016: 3-1
1/5/2016 Kings @ Mavs-
Kings had a 116-109 lead with 1:20 left in double OT. Then Deron Williams, in one of the best games he's had in 5 years, hit the 3 pointer of his life falling out of bounds to win it with no time left.
Folks, as soon as I saw that, I liked for this revenge spot.
Thankfully, in a scheduling quirk, the Kings get to return to the scene of DWill's crime in Dallas to avenge the loss that night. Playing in Sacto with no spread is far more dangerous when backing the Kings.
Is this just a revenge bet? No. There are more layers to the story here.
1. Rondo returns to Dallas
Don't get me wrong folks, he may not play but right now on the official kings injury report he is not listed.
If this doesn't motivate Rondo, nothing will. His time with the Mavs was a disaster. Why? He was on a well coached team with a passionate owner playing for a stable franchise. With the Kings he gets everything the opposite of that and everything he is: dysfunction. It's just like him to give his all in front of a crowd he gave little to nothing last year.
I want to note that even if he doesn't play it's not a major concern because he didn't play the last game either! But if he plays, it's a bonus that he won't fold In this spot.
2. Kings on a 4 game losing streak
The Kings are bad once again but the West is so underwhelming this year the Kings are not out of it.
4 game losing streaks appear to be the max they endure. They've had steaks if 3/3/4/4 and broke them all on the 4th and 5th game respectively. Only once did they have a 6 game losing streak and the 5th and sixth games were against the Warriors and the Spurs. Unfair to say the least.
The point is, with my betting style, I like teams getting spotted points coming into games desperate, on losing streaks, possibly with revenge. We get all three here as 4 losses will soon be six with the Spurs in San Antonio next up.
Already 5 games out of the 8th seed, if you go to 7 games out with 2 straight losses and 21 left to play, you are officially done. Get a win here to salvage things and create a sliver of hope.
3. Mavs come in on a winning streak
Again, playing against teams on winning streaks (outside of the Warriors) is an ideal ingredient for capping success especially when getting a nice spread which we get there.
Mavs have won 4 of 5 while averaging 125 over those 4 wins. That's as good as it gets. It definitely is not out of the question to have a letdown game against a team with palpable revenge.
But let's note those 4 wins came over Denver, Minnesota, Philly and Orlando...not exactly murderer's row.
Added to the Kings embarrassment is that they have lost TWENTY TWO STRAIGHT in Dallas the second longest streak after th Warriors 32 straight in San Antonio which will be broken this year.
Lip service from Demarcus after last night's loss:
"We just have to be aware and show urgency from the beginning of the game, not when someone lights a fire under our a$$."
That may be the smartest thing he said all year!
Am I worried about the back to back? No. Last Mavs game was also a back to back after a much tougher game against OKC (who they beat) and now they get to go back to Dallas in the same situation. I like the similarity of the revenge spot.
4. No one will stop Cousins
30 and 13 are his averages over thre last 4 vs. Dallas. He will perform. Everybody else will need to set up as well and that is really the issue but the star on the court will give us what we need on our side.
5. Spread and Consensus
We are betting with Vegas again as the public is clearly on Dallas. I also like that this line is a little light (I was expecting 8/8.5 given Dallas and Sacto's recent performances and the fact it is a B2B and Dallas' scoring explosion of late). It smells of Vegas trying to rope in the square for a 'just fade the Kings for guaranteed money' bet so I like being on the other side of that.
This is a game the Kings should fight hard to win outright and we get a nice chunk of points at 7 to cover their typical collapses late. You may even be able to wait for a better line if you don't like the 7!
The pick:
Kings +7 over Dallas
(Still need definitive injury confirmations on Gay and Rondo but I'll still take the Kings here plus the points.)
0
On Mavs -7.. with house money though 
Hot Forum Topics
